forkyfork Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 the midwestern derecho is a factor in the forecast tomorrow. maybe a remnant mcv can trigger an mcs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 the midwestern derecho is a factor in the forecast tomorrow. maybe a remnant mcv can trigger an mcs hopefully it comes during the right time to not ruin everything prematurely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 what about if the WAR retrogrades back toward the coast? Then you would think that most of the unsettled stuff would be pushed west of us with that cone of dry air along the coast. Also will we stil have a chance to stay summery with some sun at times and not the chilly raw rain all day? I hope so because I like summery weather and hate cold chilly all day washouts without any sun. Please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 what about if the WAR retrogrades back toward the coast? Then you would think that most of the unsettled stuff would be pushed west of us with that cone of dry air along the coast. Also will we stil have a chance to stay summery with some sun at times and not the chilly raw rain all day? I hope so because I like summery weather and hate cold chilly all day washouts without any sun. Please let me know. There's no cool weather in sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 It's a very tropical feed end of the week into next week, would be very ominous if we were in the heart of hurricane season. Still if we get several inches of rain on top of this months record rainfall and then have to deal with tropical systems then we could be in a world of trouble. I wonder how long the projected pattern will last, do summer patterns lock in like winter patterns typically do? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 what about if the WAR retrogrades back toward the coast? Then you would think that most of the unsettled stuff would be pushed west of us with that cone of dry air along the coast. Also will we stil have a chance to stay summery with some sun at times and not the chilly raw rain all day? I hope so because I like summery weather and hate cold chilly all day washouts without any sun. Please let me know. lol at thinking that unsettled weather= 50s and stratiform rain during the summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 we'll probably see breaks of sun until the convective temp is reached Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Orange county got rocked. Flooding on the thruway with cars stuck, numerous fires, boats in distress, trees and wires down everywhere.I'm in northern westchester and my power went on and off a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I'm in northern westchester and my power went on and off a few times. 2 small mudslides reported on thruway, near mm 45 and up near 58 or so. Apparently the median got completely flooded and overflowed into the roadway, im not sure i ever remember that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 The upcoming pattern doesn't mean it will be raining every hour of everyday despite the models spitting out nearly continuous QPF maxes. Some of these are generated via fictitious convectively generated vorts. The setup however will yield continuos tropical moisture feeds so whatever storms do develop will have plenty of moisture to work with and yield high rain totals. Should have many days starting out sunny and humid yielding to numerous afternoon and evening storms. We shall see, but we should have no problem breaking the all time rainfall monthly record at a few stations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
supermeh Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 2 small mudslides reported on thruway, near mm 45 and up near 58 or so. Apparently the median got completely flooded and overflowed into the roadway, im not sure i ever remember that happening.That is pretty impressive. Scary stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 what about if the WAR retrogrades back toward the coast? Then you would think that most of the unsettled stuff would be pushed west of us with that cone of dry air along the coast. Also will we stil have a chance to stay summery with some sun at times and not the chilly raw rain all day? I hope so because I like summery weather and hate cold chilly all day washouts without any sun. Please let me know. The air won't be dry with the WAR coming towards the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WE GOT HIM Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 It seems more often then not the immediate metro area gets skunk for storms, while areas of snj and sne get hit. Yes, Seems like it always happens. We always get into the blow-offs from storms too that cut our chances. Normally it comes from the west but of course today it was from the south. - It seems like the only time we get good storms (besides pop up ones) are when they come from a northerly direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 If a Ridge is usually associated with fair weather then how is it that the air wouldn't be dry if the WAR were to retrograde back toward the coast? What is it that would have to happen in order to get us on the right side of the blocking with the dry weather along the coast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 If a Ridge is usually associated with fair weather then how is it that the air wouldn't be dry if the WAR were to retrograde back toward the coast? What is it that would have to happen in order to get us on the right side of the blocking with the dry weather along the coast? The pattern that will evolve will produce a deep southerly flow pumping tropical moisture from the GOM and Atlantic. There is likely to be remnants of a frontal boundry nearby and any pulses will enhance rainfall that otherwide will occur with scattered pm storms. Very much like florida. We would need a w-sw flow which is more likely to evolve later next weekend (7/6). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 today'e highs TEB: 96NYC: 92EWR: 96LGA: 96JFk: 90ISP: 92New Brunswick: 94TTN: 92ACY: 92PHL: 92 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 If a Ridge is usually associated with fair weather then how is it that the air wouldn't be dry if the WAR were to retrograde back toward the coast? What is it that would have to happen in order to get us on the right side of the blocking with the dry weather along the coast?The ridge is not forecasted to make it far enough west, in fact it should remain well offshore putting the east coast of the US in the Bermuda flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 So are you saying that by next Saturday July 6th high pressure should finally dry us out with sunny skies without a threat of any precipitation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 So are you saying that by next Saturday July 6th high pressure should finally dry us out with sunny skies without a threat of any precipitation? Not at all Take it with a grain of salt but the 18z GFS was a wash out for 4th of July week. It still had the same pattern in place through hr 384. Just a huge continued signal for the upcomming pattern for many days now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 but you said we would need a w/sw flow in order for high pressure to build in and push that front away and that it should happen by the holiday weekend around July 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 but you said we would need a w/sw flow in order for high pressure to build in and push that front away and that it should happen by the holiday weekend around July 6. Who said that? Not me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 but you said we would need a w/sw flow in order for high pressure to build in and push that front away and that it should happen by the holiday weekend around July 6. Now if we have a tropical system in the Bahamas, that would be ideal setup for another irene.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 79 right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Here is what I was talking about that someonone posted. The pattern that will evolve will produce a deep southerly flow pumping tropical moisture from the GOM and Atlantic. There is likely to be remnants of a frontal boundry nearby and any pulses will enhance rainfall that otherwide will occur with scattered pm storms. Very much like florida. We would need a w-sw flow which is more likely to evolve later next weekend (7/6). Not look closely at the last sentence about that w-sw flow needed to dry out the east coast by next weekend on July 6. I sure don't want a nasty washout weekend again without any sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Once the numerous pm storms threat starts on Thursday, when will we have our next rain free day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Once the numerous pm storms threat starts on Thursday, when will we have our next rain free day? Not for the foreceable future. Of course some days the activity will be more hit or miss than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I hope it's not unsettled for the whole month of July. I hope we break out of this pattern sometime during July with a welcomed rain free day. Please let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Euro going 4-8 inches of rain the next ten days ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 I think that the 96 yesterday at Newark will stand as the high for the month of June. We will probably get within a few degrees today, but I don't think we will make it higher. It is a little lower for a monthly high than the last 3 Junes. 99....2012 102..2011 98....2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Another sudden slight risk upgrade from SPC today: ...PA/NY INTO NEW ENGLAND... MULTIPLE MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP BY LATE MORNING OVER PARTS OF NY/PA AND SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z BUF SOUNDING CONFIRMS A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS THAT WILL CONVECT RATHER EARLY. SUFFICIENT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGER CORES. SUBSTANTIAL WESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE SURFACE WINDS SUGGEST THAT STRONG/SEVERE STORMS COULD MAKE IT ALL THE WAY TO THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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