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June 2013 Observations and Discussions


SACRUS

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It's been quite dry in Westchester, none of the storms that others have experienced. I was working my weekend job tonight delivering for a restaurant, and there was barely a cloud in the sky. High was 88F in Dobbs Ferry today...forecasts are showing 89-93F tomorrow so it should be noticeably warmer.

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The Euro has plenty of heavy thunderstorm potential from later this week into next as

the cold front stalls out along the coast. We could be setting up for a very heavy rain

event to end June and start July as moisture is drawn up the coast from the SE.

The GFS is showing PW's over 2.00" for an extended period of time. The Western

Atlantic Ridge will be too strong for the cold front to progress east while

lows carve out a trough over the MW and Lakes. 

 

 

 

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Heat Advisory in effect for New York City.

 

...HOT WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...

NYZ072>075-176-178-241615-
/O.NEW.KOKX.HT.Y.0001.130624T1000Z-130625T2200Z/
NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)-
KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN QUEENS-
402 AM EDT MON JUN 24 2013

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT TUESDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY.

* HAZARDS...HEAT.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S DUE TO TEMPERATURES
  IN THE LOWER 90S...AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S.
 

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Lol at the bad weather doom and gloomers. The progs people were posting last week for this week that cut back at the heat for this week and gave temps in the upper 60s with raw conditions seems to have gone poof. Enjoy the upcoming heatwave and stop acting so chicken littlish

The bad weather is for later this week. It was always progged to begin around Thursday.

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Lol at the bad weather doom and gloomers. The progs people were posting last week for this week that cut back at the heat for this week and gave temps in the upper 60s with raw conditions seems to have gone poof. Enjoy the upcoming heatwave and stop acting so chicken littlish

Heatwave? What a pathetic heatwave.... 99% of the area did not hit 90 yesterday. You need 3 days of 90 to be classified a heatwave ... We have today through Wednesday to hit 90. After that ...poof ... A Very wet pattern sets in and some days could be no higher then the 70's.

So enjoy your pathetic mini "heatwave " lol

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Heatwave? What a pathetic heatwave.... 99% of the area did not hit 90 yesterday. You need 3 days of 90 to be classified a heatwave ... We have today through Wednesday to hit 90. After that ...poof ... A Very wet pattern sets in and some days could be no higher then the 70's.

So enjoy your pathetic mini "heatwave " lol

Any certainty that this wet pattern will evolve?

I certainly think it will trend hot and dry, just like this week--once modeled cool and wet--turned out to be.

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Any certainty that this wet pattern will evolve?

I certainly think it will trend hot and dry, just like this week--once modeled cool and wet--turned out to be.

Euro and its ensemble have had a very wet pattern beginning Thurs/Fri of this week for a few days now.

Last nights 0z run had 2"-3" of rain for the area from Friday to Sunday alone.

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Any certainty that this wet pattern will evolve?

I certainly think it will trend hot and dry, just like this week--once modeled cool and wet--turned out to be.

 

 

With the WAR building west and setting up a primarily southery flow it will be anything but dry.  The period 6/27 - 7/1 we deal with the front hanging around then WAR builds in between 7/1 and 7/5 with warm/humid tropical flow.  South Florida-type weather with daily storm/shower chances (some downpours) and when the sun is out its very warm-hot.  By the holiday weekend on/around 7/6 the ridge may hook and set a more classic westerly flow and some stronger heat.....

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Any certainty that this wet pattern will evolve?

I certainly think it will trend hot and dry, just like this week--once modeled cool and wet--turned out to be.

There's no logic in that statement. First of all the heat has been shown for at least the past 5 days. Just because a wet pattern didn't occur as progged 7 days out doesn't mean the next one won't. One doesn't affect the other, especially with a completey different setup and when its only 3 days away, has plenty of model support and has been consistent.

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