bluewave Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 GGEM is similar to GFS builds the WAR west along the coast next weekend. I think in turns of what we're likely looking at it may pan out like this 6//22 - 6/23 - warmer than mornal 6/24 - 6/27 - heat potnetial 90 - 95 readings 6/27 - 6/29 - trough digs in with slow front... rain and temps at or below normal especially thu/fri. 6/30 - 7/5 - WAR builds in west along the coast (ala-2008) with higher heights amd southerly flow - humid/tropical warmer than normal but increased rain chances. The Euro ENS mean is hinting that the trough axis will be a little further east than the GEFS mean is showing with slightly above normal temps in Eastern New England and below normal over the Lakes for June 1-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 Today's highs (another fantabulous day) TEB: 86NYC: 82EWR: 83LGA: 82JFK: 76ISP: 77New Brunswick: 82TTN: 82 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pzdgi1ucHds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Today's highs (another fantabulous day) TEB: 86 NYC: 82 EWR: 83 LGA: 82 JFK: 76 ISP: 77 New Brunswick: 82 TTN: 82 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pzdgi1ucHds Just incredible weather for this time of year. I wouldn't mind if it was like today all summer. Regardless of air temps, the sun made it plenty hot for swimming today. High here was 81F after 56F this morning, and yesterday was 79F after 53.5F morning. Tomorrow looks like another gem, then we start the higher dew point advection overnight into Sunday w/ convection opportunities in the afternoon/evening from Sun-Wed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 Just incredible weather for this time of year. I wouldn't mind if it was like today all summer. Regardless of air temps, the sun made it plenty hot for swimming today. High here was 81F after 56F this morning, and yesterday was 79F after 53.5F morning. Tomorrow looks like another gem, then we start the higher dew point advection overnight into Sunday w/ convection opportunities in the afternoon/evening from Sun-Wed. It has been very splenid out there these last few days. We needed it to with how wet its been. Another dandy today temps in the low 70s on their way to the mid 80s. Then some heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 4km NAM is hot for Monday, mid 90's. Likely overdone a bit though. 850's at 18C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 4km NAM is hot for Monday, mid 90's. Likely overdone a bit though. 850's at 18C I think the clouds and thunderstorm potential will keep temps lower the 4km is showing. The vort over TN today will swing through on Monday and keep a lid on the high temperature potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 12PM Roundup; TEB: 80 NYC: 79 EWR: 80 LGA: 79 JFK: 74 ISP: 78 New Brunswick: 80 BLM: 79 TTN: 79 ACY: 81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 4km NAM is hot for Monday, mid 90's. Likely overdone a bit though. 850's at 18C I've learned to ignore the 4k nam on pretty much any variable it's forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 The NAM temps have been too high with cloudcover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 12z gfs not only continues the trend of building back the WAR but it goes bonkers by July 4th and the holiday weekend with nation-wide ridge and heights rise along the EC. It'll be interesting to see how things evolve and if the gfs has some support with its ensembles and the other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 12z gfs not only continues the trend of building back the WAR but it goes bonkers by July 4th and the holiday weekend with nation-wide ridge and heights rise along the EC. It'll be interesting to see how things evolve and if the gfs has some support with its ensembles and the other guidance. If the WAR ends up that strong as we head further into hurricane season, we're going to be in a world of trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 If the WAR ends up that strong as we head further into hurricane season, we're going to be in a world of trouble What do you mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 What do you mean?The WAR, or West Atlantic Ridge could position itself to potentially direct tropical cyclones up the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 After the heat/humidity Mon-Wed, 12z Euro suggests potentially well below normal high temps in the Thursday-Saturday period. Easterly winds and 65-70F from NYC northeastward for Thurs/Fri, near 70F in NYC Saturday. Has Boston barely at 60F for one day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 Today's highs. 4 in a row and the fab weekend weather continues since the second half of memorial day weekend. TEB: 84NYC: 84EWR: 84LGA: 84JFk: 77ISP: 80New Brunswick: 84TTN: 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 tomorrow first 90s since June 2nd and for the warmer places. perhaps a chance at a second heatwave pending on clouds and storms mon/tue could see some mid 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 I think that the warmth this week puts NYC over +1 for June with a cooler start to the first week of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sb7881 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 I hope the 4th of July holiday weekend from the 4th of July through that 4 day period being Thursday the 4th through Sunday the 7th is summery and warm and not cool and raw. I hope whatever cool air moves in behind the front from late this week into the first part of this weekend is brief and that the warm air will come back by the 4th of July holiday weekend. Does the period from the 4th of July through July 7th have a chance to be summery and warm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 Another perfect start to the day. Some clouds meandering just south of us and slowly pushing north. We will see some periodz of clouds before noon, then patly sunny later this afternnon w/ some scattered shower,storms.... First shot at 90s today since earlier in the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 I think that the warmth this week puts NYC over +1 for June with a cooler start to the first week of July. Geopotential32at32500hPa_North32America_240.gif Pending on next fri-sun will determine if nyc can maintain +1 (from today - thu). Still not fully clear how long we deal with the front later this week and next weekend. Beyond there, still a mixed singal once past the 30th/1st. GFS continues to build the WAR back between 2 and thr 5th with warm tropical flow but plenty of rain chances. ECM seems to want to keep trough and weekaness over the northeast but would be drier and temps near normal. GGEM is back and forth between euro and gfs scenario. There is more consitency in longer (lala) range that heights rise and some stronger warmth by the holiday weekend (7/6) but thats way out there. What is most clear is 6/23 - 6/27 above normal with shots at 90 and possible heatwave. 6/27 - 7/1 trough digs and front is along the east coast and depending on WAR/ trough location it may be draped right along us for a few days. By the 1st or 2nd WAR is building west creating southerly flow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 11AM roundup. Clouds pushing into s-nj TEB: 83NYC: 80EWR: 84LGA: 82JFk: 77ISP: 78BLM: 82New Brunswick: 83TTN: 82 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 11AM roundup. Clouds pushing into s-nj TEB: 83 NYC: 80 EWR: 84 LGA: 82 JFk: 77 ISP: 78 BLM: 82 New Brunswick: 83 TTN: 82 I think we can see sun until about 2-3. That may push many areas near 90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Still quite sunny IMBY. KSMQ up to 84 as of the 12 pm update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Beautiful day today. Time for a bbq Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Pending on next fri-sun will determine if nyc can maintain +1 (from today - thu). Still not fully clear how long we deal with the front later this week and next weekend. Beyond there, still a mixed singal once past the 30th/1st. GFS continues to build the WAR back between 2 and thr 5th with warm tropical flow but plenty of rain chances. ECM seems to want to keep trough and weekaness over the northeast but would be drier and temps near normal. GGEM is back and forth between euro and gfs scenario. There is more consitency in longer (lala) range that heights rise and some stronger warmth by the holiday weekend (7/6) but thats way out there. What is most clear is 6/23 - 6/27 above normal with shots at 90 and possible heatwave. 6/27 - 7/1 trough digs and front is along the east coast and depending on WAR/ trough location it may be draped right along us for a few days. By the 1st or 2nd WAR is building west creating southerly flow I would guess that June finishes up in the +0.8 to +1.2 range for NYC. The Day 10 Euro Ensemble mean has cooler than normal temperatures to our west and warmer over eastern New England. The WAR building back west could see an increase in thunderstorm threats as a cold front approaching for the west taps moisture form the SE U.S.. GFSENS June 1-7 temperature departure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Made it up to a high of 90 for the day, currently 85. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Getting overcast here in SI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 low topped rain shower in Brooklyn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Had a brief shower move through freehold, clouds still hanging on, currently 78 degrees.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 24, 2013 Author Share Posted June 24, 2013 Today's highs TEB: 91NYC: 88EWR: 89LGA: 87JFk: 80ISP: 82New Brunswick: 88TTN: 86ACY: 83PHL: 85 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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