sb7881 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I hope the western atlantic ridge will build far enough west to keep us in the summery pattern late next week into next weekend. And if that front affects us late next week I hope it winds up being progressive so that it dries out at least by next Saturday and Sunday to keep next weekend dry. The last thing I want is a dreary and raw Saturday and Sunday next weekend. I hate nasty weekends. I hope these models change their predictions as I'm not liking what I'm seeing with them right now. Raw and chilly conditios I can't stand. And also I saw from other weather websites that the 4th of July week should be summery with mostly dry condtions and just isolated convection with a dry 4th of July. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The cooling continues, as forecast...making 2010 & 2011 just a distant memory... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Happy 1st day of Summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Rain almost every day on the 00z and 06z GFS from next W-TH to the end of the run, including tropical remnants coming out of the eastern Gulf again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 We shall see about that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 We shall see about that If it was just one model spitting this out I wouldn't have bothered posting, it has good model consensus and decent ensemble agreement. The guidance agrees on a strong ridge building into the western states centered around the Rockies while also pushing the western Atlantic ridge towards us. The end result is that we get squeezed in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Euro still develops a trough in the east at the end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Euro still develops a trough in the east at the end of the run. Full force by day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 The cooling continues, as forecast...making 2010 & 2011 just a distant memory... It will be instresting depending how the last 3 days end with the front and storms but this June could end up warmer than 2012 and 2011 if the warmth starting today through next wed is strong enough. NYC: 6/2010: +3.2 6/20111: +0.9 6/2012: -0.5 6/2013: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 Full force by day 6 Thats day 8 but you are correct we will be caught on the east side of the GL trough and west side of a building WAR. That spells wetter times but warmer as well when not raining between 6/27 and 7/1. Beyond there is still way out there and the signal is mixed if the trough lifts out and we see heights rise with warmer temps in time for the 4th of July holiday. Also some signal the next spike of heat towards the 6th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I think Sunday could end up hotter than expected, with a bubble of 20 C 850 temperatures approaching from the West http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/t85w45.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The 12z NAM has some scattered thunderstorms for Sunday night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The 12z NAM has some scattered thunderstorms for Sunday night Not a big fan of the mid level height rises during the day on Sunday for convection, but I guess we'll see. For the beach crew, beware of Saturday. NAM has a big low cloud signal on the shore. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NAMSFC4_12z/rad33.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 the gfs is pretty hot and keeps the front north of us next week. i think we will get at least one good convective day as heights fall toward thursday/friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 GFS brings a tropical storm up the east coast jul 1 - 3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 GFS brings a tropical storm up the east coast jul 1 - 3. and has a beast of a western atlantic ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 12z GFS has front and trough digging into the lakes and EC 6/27-28 with front slow to clear fri - sat. Warm pattern with heat out west under mega ridge. July 4th week (aside from tropical storm) looks warm with storm chances under a humid southerly flow wit WAR building in towards the 4th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The GFS tropical development looks spurious as the Euro has no development at that time. I think the false development pumps the WAR too much and that's what the Euro Ens has lower heights near the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 The GFS tropical development looks spurious as the Euro has no development at that time. I think the false development pumps the WAR too much and that's what the Euro Ens has lower heights near the EC. I havent seen any signal for the development on the ecm, ggem either so lets hope its gfs error. There has been some support for the WAR ballooning west on various guidance and multiple GFS runs. The ECm control run has had it a few runs (although not last nights 00z) as well as the ggem/esembles. Im not very familiar with the ecm control run or how well it forecasts. It will be interesting to see how July 4th week evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Not much value to a 384 gfs QPF run but it shows you how storms will tend to ride up the western edge of the Bermuda high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I havent seen any signal for the development on the ecm, ggem either so lets hope its gfs error. There has been some support for the WAR ballooning west on various guidance and multiple GFS runs. The ECm control run has had it a few runs (although not last nights 00z) as well as the ggem/esembles. Im not very familiar with the ecm control run or how well it forecasts. It will be interesting to see how July 4th week evolves. Yeah, I think that July should start with a trough in the East. But how much the WAR can push west beyond day 10 is an open question at this point. The GFS has been running in 4th place for the tropics recently with only the GGEM scoring lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I havent seen any signal for the development on the ecm, ggem either so lets hope its gfs error. There has been some support for the WAR ballooning west on various guidance and multiple GFS runs. The ECm control run has had it a few runs (although not last nights 00z) as well as the ggem/esembles. Im not very familiar with the ecm control run or how well it forecasts. It will be interesting to see how July 4th week evolves. The GFS has had this threat for the past several days. I wouldn't give it all that much weight but it's not spurious or whatever you're calling it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The GFS tropical development looks spurious as the Euro has no development at that time. I think the false development pumps the WAR too much and that's what the Euro Ens has lower heights near the EC. Even without a tropical storm, the pattern the end of June and early July, does open the door for tropical moisture to work it's way up the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Even without a tropical storm, the pattern the end of June and early July, does open the door for tropical moisture to work it's way up the East Coast. But more likely right now in the way that the Euro is showing with high PWAT air being drawn northward ahead of the cold front. The GFS has really been struggling recently as we saw with the the wound up low that it forecast for a few days ago that never happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shades Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I can see much of next week being dry and seasonable for the coast, LI, NYC... would not be surprised if not a drop of rain fell from M-F, even as the trough encroaches from the west. I think the bulk of the energy skirts to our north while the Atlantic ridge tucks along the coast enough to prevent much in the way of forcing, and just enough subsidence. The periphery of these Atlantic ridges, especially during the summer usually spares the coast while inland locations deal with diurnal convection from the onshore flow/orographic lift and associated troughs which usually bypass to the north and east as climatology suggests. I think the guidance is hinting at this taking in any model biases (GFS with its tropical threats in particular). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I can see much of next week being dry and seasonable for the coast, LI, NYC... would not be surprised if not a drop of rain fell from M-F, even as the trough encroaches from the west. I think the bulk of the energy skirts to our north while the Atlantic ridge tucks along the coast enough to prevent much in the way of forcing, and just enough subsidence. The periphery of these Atlantic ridges, especially during the summer usually spares the coast while inland locations deal with diurnal convection from the onshore flow/orographic lift and associated troughs which usually bypass to the north and east as climatology suggests. I think the guidance is hinting at this taking in any model biases (GFS with its tropical threats in particular). Mon-Wed looks pretty warm though-Upton going for close to 90-Mon Wed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 The 12z Euro trended stronger with the troughing by the end of the run. If this sets up as advertised, going to be very soggy around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jets Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I think there will be a trough but not as robust as what the euro shows. With the Western Atlantic Ridge trying to develop I can see a weaker trough and have it setup further west. Will see what happens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 I think there will be a trough but not as robust as what the euro shows. With the Western Atlantic Ridge trying to develop I can see a weaker trough and have it setup further west. Will see what happens With a strong ridge over the plains and a strong ridge building west from the Ocean, we're stuck in between. The Euro has had this trough now for the past several days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 GGEM is similar to GFS builds the WAR west along the coast next weekend. I think in turns of what we're likely looking at it may pan out like this 6//22 - 6/23 - warmer than mornal 6/24 - 6/27 - heat potnetial 90 - 95 readings 6/27 - 6/29 - trough digs in with slow front... rain and temps at or below normal especially thu/fri. 6/30 - 7/5 - WAR builds in west along the coast (ala-2008) with higher heights amd southerly flow - humid/tropical warmer than normal but increased rain chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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