June 2013 Observations and Discussions

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Freehold Monmouth County NJ.

 

Okay. Thanks.

[sb7881]

I'm not complaining about breaking the all time rainfall record for June. I just want that dry weather to stay in place over the next week plus. The long dry stretch is more important to me than breaking the rainfall record for June as we despertely need a long dry strecth of weather because someone floods easily with all the rain NYC has gotten since May 8th.

[bluewave]

While the models bring a warm up for early next week, they offer numerous opportunities

for convection. So it's possible we may not reach the maximum heat potential for the

higher 850's with plenty of debris clouds and storms moving east form the MW and Lakes.

But if there are more breaks than forecast, then higher temperatures would be possible.

I think NYC has a good  shot at the all time June rainfall record since it only needs .48" more.

[IsentropicLift]

How close is it after today's rain?

I heard Central Park recorded under 0.25" yesterday, maybe I'm wrong though. Quite the contrast to the almost 2" I got out here in the far western suburbs.

[Brian5671]

While the models bring a warm up for early next week, they offer numerous opportunities

for convection. So it's possible we may not reach the maximum heat potential for the

higher 850's with plenty of debris clouds and storms moving east form the MW and Lakes.

But if there are more breaks than forecast, then higher temperatures would be possible.

I think NYC has a good  shot at the all time June rainfall record since it only needs .48" more.

That should be attainable over the next 11 days.....

[Snow_Miser]

Euro is pretty dry over the next 10 days, especially when compared to the first half of the month.

 

Roughly around 0.25" into NYC over the next 10 days, and 0.5" into Northern New Jersey.

[IsentropicLift]

Euro is pretty dry over the next 10 days, especially when compared to the first half of the month.

 

Roughly around 0.25" into NYC over the next 10 days, and 0.5" into Northern New Jersey.

Yeah the Euro has been very consistent though at building a trough into New England in the 8-10 day range. The 06z GFS was very nice for the next seven days or so, but then barely has a dry panel from then on to the end of its run. We're clearly going to flip back to an active pattern as June comes to a close.

 

[bluewave]

That should be attainable over the next 11 days.....

 

Only 0.2" away from the 8th 10" or more precip  month in NYC since 2000.

 

3-10....10.69"

4-07....13.05"

6-03....10.27"

6-09....10.06"

8-11....18.95"

9-04....11.51"

10-05..16.73"

6-13....9.80"... so far

[ag3]

With yesterday's .19", NYC now moves up to the 3rd wettest June on record:

2003: 10.27"
2009: 10.06"
2013: 9.80"
1903: 9.78"
1972: 9.30"
1989: 8.79"
2006: 8.55
1887: 7.76"
1975: 7.58"
1938: 7.13"
 

[uncle W]

NYC needs 1.23" more to tie 1989 for the wettest May/June on record...

year...May/June rains
1989.......19.03"
1972.......17.69"

2013.....17.80"
1984.......15.50"
2009.......15.23"
2003.......13.70"
1968.......13.21"
2006.......13.17"
1948.......13.10"
1998.......12.88"

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z high res NAM has some widely scattered showers in the northeast the next three days. I guess a pop up shower or storm can not be ruled out. We will also have to watch to see what happens down south. Some of the modeling take a weak topical disturbance through the Bahamas and into the northern Florida coast. One might then expect it to follow the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge. I guess dry and wet patterns are never cut and dry during the summer months.

[Brian5671]

The 12z high res NAM has some widely scattered showers in the northeast the next three days. I guess a pop up shower or storm can not be ruled out. We will also have to watch to see what happens down south. Some of the modeling take a weak topical disturbance through the Bahamas and into the northern Florida coast. One might then expect it to follow the western periphery of the Bermuda ridge. I guess dry and wet patterns are never cut and dry during the summer months.

Agree...you have to figure things like MCS's into the equation too-how many times has one of those dove SE from upstate NY or the Lakes and unexpectedly drenched us?

[SnoSki14]

Today's a textbook perfect June day. Only mid 70s with low humidity and sunshine, 50s tonight. There won't be very many days like these in the next couple of months. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

NYC needs 1.23" more to tie 1989 for the wettest May/June on record...

year...May/June rains

1989.......19.03"

1972.......17.69"

2013.....17.80"

1984.......15.50"

2009.......15.23"

2003.......13.70"

1968.......13.21"

2006.......13.17"

1948.......13.10"

1998.......12.88"

I think it gets very close to the wettest. You figure two or three thunderstorms would do it. I think we have enough t-storm threats left especially next week in the hot humid air that we have a good shot at it.

WX/PT

[Snow_Miser]

Yeah the Euro has been very consistent though at building a trough into New England in the 8-10 day range. The 06z GFS was very nice for the next seven days or so, but then barely has a dry panel from then on to the end of its run. We're clearly going to flip back to an active pattern as June comes to a close.

 

 

The GFS agrees with the Euro on a very tranquil next 8 days, with most of the area barely even getting 0.1":

 

[uncle W]

Today's a textbook perfect June day. Only mid 70s with low humidity and sunshine, 50s tonight. There won't be very many days like these in the next couple of months. 

last year didn't see any 50's in Central Park in July Aug...The average minimum for July is 59 and 57 for August...the average minimum for these months is on the rise like all the rest of the months and years...

year.....July Aug min...

2012.....61.....61

2011.....63.....59

2010.....61.....61

2009.....58.....62

2008.....66.....58

2007.....57.....56

2006.....61.....60

2005.....62.....65

2004.....63.....58

2003.....63.....61

2002.....61.....60

2001.....56.....63

2000.....58.....57

1993.....65.....62

1990.....57.....58

1988.....53.....56

1986.....55.....50

1980.....61.....64

1979.....53.....55

1976.....58.....50

1965.....58.....50

1963.....54.....53

1962.....57.....56

1955.....65.....61

1943.....52.....56

1888.....54.....53

red is the all time high and blue the all time low...

[IsentropicLift]

After a great next five or six days the 12z Euro continues to build in the trough by day 7. By day 10 a well established trough is in place from the Mid-West to the coast. Could bring a chance for some severe weather.

 

[Isotherm]

Pattern argues for the Euro's more transient heat. MJO pulse heading into phase 8 on both the GFS and ECMWF based guidance, which argues for strong cooling in the Northeast Day 5-10. Early/mid next week will be "dirty" warm with increased humidity, summer like feel, maybe some high temps approaching 90F, but nothing extreme or impressive for this time of year. Front should come through later next week with a cooler finish to June again, setting up a July pattern that's fairly similar -- back and forth with plenty of cool shots in the NW flow aloft.          

[SACRUS]

ECM has mean ridge further west with trough east of HI.  GFS continues with more expansive ridge and overall nation-wide warm pattern.  Both agree as well as their ensembles that we are in an overall warmer pattern compared to the extreme wet one that had dominated the last 2 weeks since the first heat wave.  It will be interesting to see how hot we can get next week, especially mon/tue ahead of any front wed or thu.  Suspect any front brings us to normal or below for a day or two before the next surge of warmth expands east.

 

 

[SACRUS]

Today's highs - fantastic day

 

 

TEB: 77

NYC:  77

EWR:  78

JFK:  77

LGA: 77

ISP: 77

New Brunswick:  78

TTN: 77

[Stormlover74]

Today's highs - fantastic day

TEB: 77

NYC: 77

EWR: 78

JFK: 77

LGA: 77

ISP: 77

New Brunswick: 78

TTN: 77

Assuming we reach 80 tomorrow today will have been our last day in the 70s for quite some time

[Isotherm]

8" of rain on the month here.

[Isotherm]

12z GFS now backdoors the heck out of us from Wednesday on through later next week. We get potentially hot days Sun-Tues, then northeasterlies take over w/ a sfc high pressure ridge propagating SE from Canada. 12z GFS verbatim has highs in the lower 70s from NYC northeastward for Wed-Thurs.          

[jm1220]

12z GFS now backdoors the heck out of us from Wednesday on through later next week. We get potentially hot days Sun-Tues, then northeasterlies take over w/ a sfc high pressure ridge propagating SE from Canada. 12z GFS verbatim has highs in the lower 70s from NYC northeastward for Wed-Thurs.          

We've never been able to shake the persistent trough north and east of us so far, so persistence by itself would argue for that trough to remain a factor and the backdoor front never being far away. It would be depressing for potentially a stretch of warm, summer like days turning into more cool, raw days.

[JSantanaNYC]

Enjoy the pleasant weather.. based on the Euro is going to last only till next wednesday.

[SACRUS]

Enjoy the pleasant weather.. based on the Euro is going to last only till next wednesday.

 

 

Euro seems to be digging the trough over the Lakes or a shade west each run.  We're on the east side of the trough with a potentially balloooning western atl ridge.  Likely a warm/humid pattern but one thats also packed with storms/rain potential.  GFS gets us out warmer  the 30th and has a large expansive ridge with core of the heat into the rockies coming out in spike.  Its  a warm pattern.  Euro is also warm when not raining.

[IsentropicLift]

The 12z Euro has once again shown tremendous continuity and builds an east coast trough by day 6 which strengthens with time. Large signal for a deep trough from the Lakes to New England by the day 9 period. Looks like a return to an above average rainfall scheme to close out June. Fortunatly, sufficant drying out has and will occur which will help to reduce flooding risks.

 

[sb7881]

I hope the Euro is wrong because I really don't want another prologend stretch of raw and chilly rainy weather late next week into next weekend. I really want the sunny and summery weather to stcik around for a while to close out this month. Another long stretch of raw and  chilly rainy weather is the last thing I want.

[SACRUS]

Today;s highs (truly marvelous)

 

 

TEB: 83
NYC: 80
EWR: 80
LGA: 80
JFK: 74
ISP: 75
New Brunswick: 82
TTN: 80

 

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dN3GbF9Bx6E

[SACRUS]

The 12z Euro has once again shown tremendous continuity and builds an east coast trough by day 6 which strengthens with time. Large signal for a deep trough from the Lakes to New England by the day 9 period. Looks like a return to an above average rainfall scheme to close out June. Fortunatly, sufficant drying out has and will occur which will help to reduce flooding risks.

 

 

It will be interesting to see how things evolve by next wed/thu.  Whats most clear and likely is a mega ridge will develop over the west, centered in the  rockies with thicknesses approaching 600 on various guidance.   A front will be forced east with a developing trough into the Lakes between wed and thu (6/27-28).  What still needs to be worked out is the extent of the trough as well as how far the Western atlantic ridge builds in between 6/28 and 7/1.   Even the euro keeps the area on the east side of the trough and if you look to the d9 and d10 progs you see the WAR building west and heights along the EC rising.  The gfs also hints at this as well as the ECM controal run.  So I suspect we deal with lingering front next thu - sat, then we see more tropical flow aided by Bermuda high into 4th of july week.   Increased storms/rain potential as well but warm....