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June 2013 Observations and Discussions


SACRUS

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Yeah, bad representation for sure. Some places under Flash Flood Warnings aren't even getting light precipitation on the NAM.

FWIW the 4K NAM has a slightly better representation but still appears to be slightly to far south and weak with the convection. Has all of this rain out of here by sundown. Not sure I believe that.

 

Big boom of thunder as I type this

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Yeah, bad representation for sure. Some places under Flash Flood Warnings aren't even getting light precipitation on the NAM.

 

All the models including the Euro missed the convection coming north form the MA.

The great upper level divergence won the day.

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All the models including the Euro missed the convection coming north form the MA.

The great upper level divergence won the day.

that divergence has to be why the activity coming south isn't weakening (yet).  it's tough to get new convection under anvil precip

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Flash Flood warning here at last. Could have went out a half hour ago.

 

FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NJC027-037-041-190045-
/O.NEW.KPHI.FF.W.0015.130618T2044Z-130619T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
444 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY NJ HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  WARREN COUNTY...
  MORRIS COUNTY...
  SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY...

* UNTIL 845 PM EDT...

* AT 440 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  PERSISTENT HEAVY RAIN OVER SOUTHERN SUSSEX...NORTHERN WARREN AND
  NORTHERN MORRIS COUNTIES. MORE RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER THE AREA LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING...WHICH WILL CAUSE ROADWAY
  FLOODING AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING. SMALL STREAMS WILL ALSO
  EXPERIENCE RAPID RISES WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN HAPPENS TO FALL.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. NEVER ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR IN AN
AUTOMOBILE. TURN AROUND DON`T DROWN!

MOST FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. TURN
AROUND...DON`T DROWN! NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A
SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7440 4109 7450 4104 7450 4105 7445
      4102 7443 4100 7430 4091 7427 4090 7433
      4084 7432 4071 7439 4065 7452 4076 7455
      4072 7474 4078 7490 4060 7519 4075 7520
      4086 7505 4098 7514 4109 7496 4120 7488

 

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Had moderate to heavy rain from about 12:30 to 3:00 in Monroe.  Now a light rain.   About 0.65 in the bucket.  I agree with others Monmouth/Middlsex or  from about  i-195 north qualfies as NYC region.   

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