Ian Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 We've had this debate before. The simple answer is most severe events don't give most people severe weather. As interesting as it was, I could go a while without another derecho... but outside that type of event even a mod risk day is going to leave a lot of folks wondering what all the hype was about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 It is stickyyy out there. Pretty nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mrs.J Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 I am really not wanting this forecast. My anxiety level is already going up. I used to enjoy storms but after last year with dealing with Debbie in FL, the Derecho up here and Sandy I am done. Just the thought of my girls in school tomorrow when this crap is supposed to hit is not sitting well with me. Just give me a garden variety TS and I am happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 First really uncomfortable day of the year, imo. related to tomorrow.....wife was just on the phone with the evil mother in law and said that a hurricane was coming tomorrow. Me yelling at her didn't go over too well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_153_1000_500_thick.gif - June 13th redux, a week later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Ridiculously uncomfortable today. I wonder why we are not in storm mode? Why only in winter and not in summer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Ridiculously uncomfortable today. I wonder why we are not in storm mode? Why only in winter and not in summer? Apparently white weenies are worse than wet weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Apparently white weenies are worse than wet weenies. Yah. Tho I protest the bias. This wet weenie weather has been way more entertaining and informative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Some of the comments in the severe thread sound like people worrying about a dryslot in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Some of the comments in the severe thread sound like people worrying about a dryslot in winter. they love themselves too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 they love themselves too much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Some of the comments in the severe thread sound like people worrying about a dryslot in winter. yep. Blurry pics from significant others, talk of being in the harbor tunnel, etc. Lots of junk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 yep. Blurry pics from significant others, talk of being in the harbor tunnel, etc. Lots of junk. Oh, my bad. I'll delete my pics so they don't clutter up the thread. Forgive me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 It would be funny if after all the hype, this minor storm this morning was it for the day! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Was it supposed to rain today? Just wondering since it hasn't very much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Today is going to be the classic...."sun is out, come on atmosphere cook" kind of day then around 5pm it will be completely sunny and 85 degrees and a perfect evening. You guys just get here or something...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Today is going to be the classic...."sun is out, come on atmosphere cook" kind of day then around 5pm it will be completely sunny and 85 degrees and a perfect evening. You guys just get here or something...lol This never, ever happens. Ever. Hogwash. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Yoda's trolling Eskimo Joe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 only 11 degrees short of my forecast high so far The NAM missed my noon temp by 15 degrees from 4 hours out. Good stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 The NAM missed my noon temp by 15 degrees from 4 hours out. Good stuff. damn warm sector collapse technology Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Leesburg has come out of hibernation? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think forecasting severe weather for specific cities (a day out) has joined forecasting the genesis of a tropical cyclone as areas where maybe the expectations on the forecasts are a bit higher than what the state of the science can provide right now. Maybe the derecho in the same month erased the area's memory of 6/1/12? Like today, the expectations were very high for that event, right up to the onset. It was supposed to be a multi-round event, with potentially significant tornadoes from discrete super-cells followed by a bowing line. We did get 12 weak tornadoes out of it, but most of the area avoided any severe thunderstorm criteria. I remember the kind of letdown from both the public and those on the board. The relatively unheralded 6/22/12 event (one week before the derecho) ended up causing more widespread wind damage, including a 90-100 mph downburst in Bladensburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 I think forecasting severe weather for specific cities (a day out) has joined forecasting the genesis of a tropical cyclone as areas where maybe the expectations on the forecasts are a bit higher than what the state of the science can provide right now. Maybe the derecho in the same month erased the area's memory of 6/1/12? Like today, the expectations were very high for that event, right up to the onset. It was supposed to be a multi-round event, with potentially significant tornadoes from discrete super-cells followed by a bowing line. We did get 12 weak tornadoes out of it, but most of the area avoided any severe thunderstorm criteria. I remember the kind of letdown from both the public and those on the board. The relatively unheralded 6/22/12 event (one week before the derecho) ended up causing more widespread wind damage, including a 90-100 mph downburst in Bladensburg. This sort of thing frequently happens, including the Bethesda Moco wind event, which was a noteworthy event for some. (7/25 I believe that was, not sure of the year). But some people get microbursts and downbursts that give them a personal top 5 storm in a see text, you just never can tell. Perception comes by group with weather, especially severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 There is the true blue derecho on the 18z GFS. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/gfs/18/gfs_namer_066_1000_500_thick.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Over/under 8.5" of precip for June... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Beautiful evening to walk the dog. Thank God the neighborhood is still in one piece after the derechoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 Beautiful evening to walk the dog. Thank God the neighborhood is still in one piece after the derechoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snownut Posted June 13, 2013 Share Posted June 13, 2013 enjoying a steaming hot sunny week in FL... hear there have been a few storms back there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Well, after 7 years of service on the top of my roof. I am retiring my Original Davis Vantage Pro station. It's rain gauge is off by 15%+, the humidity never gets over 96% anymore, the wind direction sensor is off by 60° even when calibrated and the transmission range has decreased so significantly that I need a makeshift antenna for it to reach the computer that stores and sends the data to the internet. I would replace it part by part but it is no longer supported by Davis Instruments and spare parts are very hard to find or all gone. Time to go Davis VP1. Hello Davis Vantage Pro 2 with 24 hr fan aspirated radiation shield. More solar panel power, longer transmission range, more accurate temp/dp readings even during full sunshine with no wind and a proper shelf for my solar radiation sensor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 Only thing I don't like about severe is I don't think the thrill of the storm is worth the long tracking time. With winter and tropical storms they generally are atleast 12 hour events and sometimes 24+. Even a great thunderstorm is a <30 minute event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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