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June 2013 Banter

jburns

By jburns,
in Southeastern States

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Shawn

Shawn

Posted
Posted

We have a flood watch for 4-6 inches of rain. Yesterday my backyard picked up 3 inches. The flood watch is for tomorrow due to invest 91L or potentially Andrea. We also have a tornado threat.

 

I checked out the ensembles etc from GFS.. it's a pretty wide path for heavy rains.  Guess we'll know the track tomorrow.  I think the NAM is on drugs though.  The 4KM NAM Hi-Res still wants to bring it up through GA.  If that happens it'd be more than 4-6 I'd expect.  Just doubtful.

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Tyler Penland

Tyler Penland

Posted
Posted

I don't want to come off as being stupid for saying this, but after hearing the El Reno tornado was upgraded to EF-5 because of measured winds from radar data, yet only caused EF-3 damage structurally, what would be the point of having a scale that measures tornado intensity by structural (including roads, sidewalks, trees, etc.) damage if you're taking radar data as the more credible source for determining the strength of the tornado?

 

This isn't just "radar data", it is mobile doppler which is a big difference in normal "radar" in terms of both height above the ground that the beam hits and the resolution. There isn't always mobile doppler data available for every tornado, even the big ones, so we must have some form of rating them after the fact, most easily done with damage. Unfortunately many large tornadoes (especially EF3/4's) are likely under-rated since MOST structures would suffer the same damage whether they were hit by a 3/4 or 4/5. For the NWS to upgrade the storm from an EF-3 to EF-5 based on the data just suggests to me that it was really good, reliable data, though I'm sure that will be looked over numerous occasions over the next few weeks and beyond. 

 

 

Exactly!! Now you will have people thinking they lived through an EF5 when the damage wasn't of those levels. And if this is how they want to rate tornadoes, there would have been plenty more EF5 in the 2011 April 27 outbreak and during any other outbreak.

 

So what if they think they lived through an EF-5? That doesn't change the fact that this was an extremely strong, violent tornado. Also, just because it didn't cause EF-5 damage doesn't mean it wasn't an EF-5. I personally believe there have been MANY more EF-5's/F-5's in the past 50 years than are on record that weren't rated as such because they didn't hit anything strong enough to prove it.

I applaud the NWS for using the available mobile data to upgrade the storm and I hope to see more mobile dopplers being used in the next decade or so. 

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dsaur

dsaur

Posted
Posted

I was thinking the exact same thing. Every run, I keep expecting to see it move east (we all know it will), but it keeps holding west. The GFS was off the coast and is now just inland. It still has a sharp precip cut-off east of the Triangle, but the 6Z beefed up the precip a bit. Euro and CMC were west but came east last night, more in line with the GFS. CMC keeps going nuts with the precip, but it's never right. I have no idea what the Euro's precip output looks like.

I'm hoping for some heavy rain, but I'm not holding my breath. It always finds a way to go west, through the western Piedmont and foothills or east along/east of I-95. Would sure be nice if some of our SE mets would update their blogs with their thoughts.

I hope the Nam holds, but I don't want the torandos and f planes, just heavy, heavy rain.  I've seen .16 in the last two or three weeks, and that ain't getting it.  T

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

This isn't just "radar data", it is mobile doppler which is a big difference in normal "radar" in terms of both height above the ground that the beam hits and the resolution. There isn't always mobile doppler data available for every tornado, even the big ones, so we must have some form of rating them after the fact, most easily done with damage. Unfortunately many large tornadoes (especially EF3/4's) are likely under-rated since MOST structures would suffer the same damage whether they were hit by a 3/4 or 4/5. For the NWS to upgrade the storm from an EF-3 to EF-5 based on the data just suggests to me that it was really good, reliable data, though I'm sure that will be looked over numerous occasions over the next few weeks and beyond.

So what if they think they lived through an EF-5? That doesn't change the fact that this was an extremely strong, violent tornado. Also, just because it didn't cause EF-5 damage doesn't mean it wasn't an EF-5. I personally believe there have been MANY more EF-5's/F-5's in the past 50 years than are on record that weren't rated as such because they didn't hit anything strong enough to prove it.

I applaud the NWS for using the available mobile data to upgrade the storm and I hope to see more mobile dopplers being used in the next decade or so.

I see what you are saying. I agree with the more EF4/EF5 twisters that we have more than on record. I like the mobile dopplers, but it would mainly be used in the plains in the open field right?
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toxictwister00

toxictwister00

Posted
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This isn't just "radar data", it is mobile doppler which is a big difference in normal "radar" in terms of both height above the ground that the beam hits and the resolution. There isn't always mobile doppler data available for every tornado, even the big ones, so we must have some form of rating them after the fact, most easily done with damage. Unfortunately many large tornadoes (especially EF3/4's) are likely under-rated since MOST structures would suffer the same damage whether they were hit by a 3/4 or 4/5. For the NWS to upgrade the storm from an EF-3 to EF-5 based on the data just suggests to me that it was really good, reliable data, though I'm sure that will be looked over numerous occasions over the next few weeks and beyond. 

 

Thank you for clarifying, that makes complete sense and I agree I think they should use this in conjunction with the usual damage surveys to get a more accurate depiction of how strong these tornadoes actually are.

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

You ! You constantly say how bad your area forecast busts . 90 % chance of rain today, was sunny all day, lol. Forecast high of 88 , made it to 96, lol! Etc

What would you say if 3-6 inches of snow was forecast for your area and you had a 90% of snow, but it was sunny all day?

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metalicwx366

metalicwx366

Posted
Posted

Lol, get out your rubber boots because the sewage is going to back up, with a big wind blowing. Well, at least it isn't torandos and fplanes :) Glad I'm down here! T

Lol, you are the only one who understood that comment that replied to Joe Bastardi on twitter. It was hilarious.

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