Met1985 Posted June 12, 2013 Share Posted June 12, 2013 Has anyone seen the Euro weeklies? Looks like the GFS is hinting at a significant heat wave moving east days 10-16. I don't know if that verifies or not. Almost looks like the heat gets forced east - instead of building in the East. Also, does anyone have any information on the potential ENSO status for DJF? Brett Anderson posted the last update on them on June 7 and it looks like the SE will stay in a Normal to above average rainfall fron know through the first of July. The latest Euro run looks Normal to me. No real heat wave in sight the next ten days according to that model. Looks like most of the heat will stay in the Rockies through the Mid West. Seems like the GFS has been hinting at a heat wave in the long range from about April on but it never makes it. Kind of like our cold and snow storms this past winter. Long range looks good but never verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted June 14, 2013 Share Posted June 14, 2013 PDO goes barely positive at 0.08,first time in exactly 3 years. Also sunspots are way down for June after an active April-May. Just some general observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 15, 2013 Share Posted June 15, 2013 PDO goes barely positive at 0.08,first time in exactly 3 years. Also sunspots are way down for June after an active April-May. Just some general observations. Thats some good news. I have been reading the sunspot activity should be decreasing quite a bit in the next couple of years which may help with blocking in the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 The last few runs of Goofy suggest no clearcut threat of intense heat through the end of June fwiw. Whereas we still have a long way to go, this is at least gives me reason for optimism that we won't see any sig. heat by 6/30. If so, the much wetter than normal soils in Atlanta as well as nearby areas in the SE US would seemingly get some of the credit. KATL not exceeding 91 on two days when the highest 850 hit ~+20 C while skies were mostly sunny was good evidence of that. With much drier soils, those highs likely would have been 95+. Since 1950, when the highest at KATL didn't exceed 91 by 6/30, the highest during 7/1+ never exceeded 96! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted June 17, 2013 Share Posted June 17, 2013 Despite similar high soil moisture and a smaller urban heat island than KATL, we hit 94 last week. Maybe the geography of the valley tempers the effects of the soil moisture up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 18, 2013 Share Posted June 18, 2013 Looking at the Euro the same thing that there really looks like no heat wave in sight for the SE. Looks like the active pattern we are in will stick around for the rest of the month with fronts coming through just about every week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Looks like the rest of the month will be warm will on and off again rain chances. By the looks of it if the heat works East it will hit North of us into the Northeast instead of blowing right into us. GFS and the Euro are different in the Long Range but I think th eEuro has done a better job of modeling the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 JB says : GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 JB says :GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few days I said no such thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 20, 2013 Share Posted June 20, 2013 JB says : GFS finally catches what ECWMF has had for days, trough stopping surge of heat after a few daysJB didn't say anything about the GFS being right with Barry. He only points out things that the Euro gets correct. Euro had never shown any development at all. GFS was on it the entire time. I don't know why he acts like its the greatest model ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 @MarkVogan: CFSv2 keeps #Southeast US (#nola to #charlotte) cooler/wetter than norm nxt 4 wks. Wet spring having big impact this summer! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 No sign of high heat in the extended range with big ridge developing out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Parts of Alaska have had more heat (90 degree) than most of North Carolina this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Parts of Alaska have had more heat (90 degree) than most of North Carolina this year. It's an exchange program. Next winter we get all their snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 Another wonderful summer day. If only summer was like this all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 It's an exchange program. Next winter we get all their snow. That would be nice Another wonderful summer day. If only summer was like this all the time. I will agree with this This spring and the start of summer have been nothing short of fantastic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Its about a week out but that is a strong trough for this time of the year on the Euro. Boy has this weather been perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 It's an exchange program. Next winter we get all their snow. I hope your right, after the last two winters I need a good winter fix, I'm having withdrawals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Todays Euro run is even more impressive with the ridge in the West and trough in the East. Would be a great way to end June and start July. Would be below normal temps for most. Wow what a difference a year makes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted June 23, 2013 Author Share Posted June 23, 2013 Just got home today from spending 2 weeks down on The Grand Strand...and with the exception of June 12th and 13th, it was almost cool at times down at the beach. Low to mid 80's at most, some days the humidity was up, some days it was down big time. It's usually miserable when I go on vacation, this time around it was excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 CFSV2 Temperature Long Range Through December For what it's worth, shows current below average trend through October and peaking in October and then hint of an above average trend trying to develop in December.....arghhhhh http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify! There are correlations for that. CFSV2 Temperature Long Range Above Average Winter Months = 100% Accuracy CFSV2 Temperature Long Range Below Average Winter Months = HA HA HA HA HA HA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCMetroWinston Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify! They verified. In March, April, and May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 After last winter with those models very poor performance , I wouldn't put much stock into the temp outlook. They constantly showed cold and well below temps for weeks on end , only to never verify! Models aren't people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 They verified. In March, April, and May. But did they verify 3-6 months before march, April, and may? Doubtful. Those maps are pretty much worthless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 We surely did get that historic cold at the end of January with the SSW event. I'll never forget that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cloudcrash619 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Yeah the temperature fell to a frigid 26 degrees here during that arctic outbreak. Some say we hadn't got that cold in weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 Models aren't people. Only because the SCOTUS hasn't ruled on that as of yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Wow Euro really looks amped! I do not think I have seen suck a pattern for this time of the year in a long time. Especially a huge trough pushing the heat ridge back to the West. Will be something to watch closely in the coming weeks. No heat ridge with that bad boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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