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June 2013 Pattern and Discussion


Marion_NC_WX

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I have had my fill of summer already also.

 

Can it be hunting season yet?

Fish hunting...but I've found the very best fishing is during a sleet storm.  No lie.  They bite like crazy, but you don't get wet. 

  I threw out some grass seed yesterday, so now I'm concerned I jinxed the rains :)  I washed the car today, actually two of them, so I hope that offsets.  T

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Well the New Euro weeklies pretty much keep the SE Wet and cooler than normal through most if not all of June.

 

Excellent news!  I'm not sure how well the weeklies have been performing lately, but I'll cling to any model that shows cool and rainy for summer.  Rain was a welcome change yesterday as it had been quite dry for a week or so.  I want to keep the lawn and landscaping flourishing without the need for irrigation.

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Too bad it's not January or February. But it's not, it's summer, and I like being able to do things outside during summer.

 

Well, cooler than normal June in NC should result in wonderful outdoor weather. It's not like its going to rain every day. Good grief.

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Following the cool theme so far this spring/early summer, does anyone know the latest 90 degree day Charlotte has ever had? So far the max temperature has been 87, and it's now early June. Seems kinda late to not have a single 90 degree day.

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Following the cool theme so far this spring/early summer, does anyone know the latest 90 degree day Charlotte has ever had? So far the max temperature has been 87, and it's now early June. Seems kinda late to not have a single 90 degree day.

 

July 8, 2003...which is hard to believe given how summers are around here...I believe Atlanta had a similar date / timeframe based on previous posts.  Next latest is June 26, 1978 - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/CLT90degdayrecs.htm

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July 8, 2003...which is hard to believe given how summers are around here...I believe Atlanta had a similar date / timeframe based on previous posts.  Next latest is June 26, 1978 - http://www.erh.noaa.gov/gsp/climate/CLT90degdayrecs.htm

 

For KATL:

1) Going back to 1885, the latest 1st 90+ is the 7/28 of 1961, when it hit 91. There is a small chance that 1884 had its first, which would have been exactly 90 since 90 was the hottest of July of 1884, between 7/28 and 7/31..say no higher than a 20% chance. I don't have the dailies for July 1884 to tell me, however.

2) Lowest highest of year was exactly 90, which was set in 1884 and 1967. Records go back to 1879.

3) Fewest # of 90+'s all year: Back to 1885, it was TWO, set in 1967. What I don't know is 1884 since I don't have the dailies. July was the only month in 1884 with any 90+'s and it/they were exactly 90. It is possible that July, 1884 had either two or one 90 high.

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Low 70's today in the Triad. What a spring!

Ya pretty amazing weather for sure. Just perfect. The new Euro weeklies again show normal to below normal temps with on and off rain through the month which would be perfect. The Euro tends to agree with the weeklies looking very amplified for this time of the year. Really have not seen such a pattern like this at this time of the year for several years.

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12 GFS pulls the potential tropical system up throu eastern NC. It indicates there would be a tight cut-off of precip amounts from about Raleigh easterward. RAH looks to be on the GFS bandwagon with their Hazardous Outlook that includes Wake county but not Durham.

Canadian finally moves east as well. Looks like the coastal plain is going to be in the jackpot zone. I'm sure the Euro will tick east and the NAM will eventually really come east. Looks like the GFS (which gets routinely hammered as a sucky model) track will have been the closest to the actual track from the get-go...barring any last minute changes. And the Triangle will miss the jackpot zone by 75 miles.

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Canadian finally moves east as well. Looks like the coastal plain is going to be in the jackpot zone. I'm sure the Euro will tick east and the NAM will eventually really come east. Looks like the GFS (which gets routinely hammered as a sucky model) track will have been the closest to the actual track from the get-go...barring any last minute changes. And the Triangle will miss the jackpot zone by 75 miles.

 

That loud guy out of Richmond does a lot of the hammering.  GFS seems to have improved over the last couple of years.  We need a good nino to give it a full examination

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Fish hunting...but I've found the very best fishing is during a sleet storm.  No lie.  They bite like crazy, but you don't get wet. 

  I threw out some grass seed yesterday, so now I'm concerned I jinxed the rains :)  I washed the car today, actually two of them, so I hope that offsets.  T

I really never would have thought of fishing during a sleet storm. That really suprises me that they would bite like that. :) 

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I really never would have thought of fishing during a sleet storm. That really suprises me that they would bite like that. :)

Well, I'm usually getting the sled ready, but the few times I've headed out to the lake in a good sleet fall, we were catching a lot of bass :)  They'll usually bite in a good rain, and sleet is just the same, only frozen, so you don't get as wet, lol.  T

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(for NC folks) 6z GFS shows a lot of rain between the Raleigh and Winston Salem (SW to NE)corridor. The NAM shows very little rain for Raleigh (dry slot between heaver amounts to the east and west. GFS has the storm traversing throu NC (I-95 or so), the NAM keeps it along the coast.   

 

Edit: sorry wrong topic, I'll copy this to the Tropical storm one...

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SECOND...SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL: INCREASING LOW-MID LEVEL SLY FLOW
IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL INCREASE 0-6KM
BULK SHEAR VALUES TO 30-35 KTS BY LATE IN THE DAY. WITH MLCAPE
VALUES (00Z GFS) AROUND 1200 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON...ADEQUATE SHEAR
AND INSTABILITY EXISTS FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GFS BUFKIT
HODOGRAPHS A LITTLE WORRISOME WITH SFC-1KM HELICITY 150-200 M2/S2
LATE TODAY/EARLY THIS EVENING. ALSO LCL VALUES BETWEEN 2000-3000FT
THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. THE ABOVE PARAMETERS SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL
FOR A SUPER CELL OR TWO THIS AFTERNOON-EARLY EVENING...MAINLY
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COASTAL PLAIN. CAVEAT TO THIS IS
THAT IF CLOUDS REMAIN THICK ENOUGH TO LIMIT INSOLATION...NEAR SFC
INSTABILITY MAY NOT BE REALIZED AND LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL. ALSO
HARD TO GET ROTATION WITHOUT A SFC BOUNDARY OR PRESENCE OF A SFC LOW
CROSSING THE REGION. STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MAINTAIN STEADY/STRONG
UPDRAFTS (LEADING TO PRECIP LOADING) WILL RUN THE RISK OF PRODUCING
DAMAGING WET MICROBURSTS. IF CELLS ABLE TO ACHIEVE ROTATING UPDRAFTS
FOR MORE THAN 10-15 MINUTES.
..CANNOT RULE A WEAK BRIEF TORNADO OR
TWO. -WSS/VINCENT

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Has anyone seen the Euro weeklies? Looks like the GFS is hinting at a significant heat wave moving east days 10-16. I don't know if that verifies or not. Almost looks like the heat gets forced east - instead of building in the East.

Also, does anyone have any information on the potential ENSO status for DJF?

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