HIPPYVALLEY Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 looks good North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 SB Cape has really taken off Litchfield to SW NH. Storms will have time to mature before they reach there. Also the ML Lapse rates are actually steepening. I think someone out in the berks and maybe even close to Springfield/Hartford is going to be seeing a tree toppler. Classic wind sounding. instability isn't an issue for CT/MA....it's the shear is minimal and the best forcing won't arrive until much later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 South winds will destroy anyone's fun pike south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 LCL heights are kinda high where the sigtor values are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I have seen this do this in the past... Take a look at this sat picture and note the starkly barren skies of any cloud east of a very sharp delineation going from CU to nothing... In the past, the air mass east of the cloud line is coming up off the LI Sound, which this is with the SW wind. What is interesting is that it won't show up at the thermometer and DP, so I am not sure just exactly what it does (physically) to alter the atmosphere toward stability, if it the actual temp and DP suggest otherwise. In any event, it might be difficult to trigger anything east of that axis, and it may also serve to weaken segments that attempt to cross it later on. We'll see... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 In Albany, just scarfed down lunch. Hanging tight for now, but part of me wants to go north. Better shear up there, but more instability down here and even into NW CT... Sounds like you've got the best of both worlds---or the worst of two depending on how you look at it. Good luck!! looks good North radar.gif Yeah--methinks we're too far south for anyting but some rumbles and heavy rain. But, here's to hoping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Poor wiz. When a chase includes a trip to Maine you know you live in slow severe zone...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I have seen this do this in the past... Take a look at this sat picture and note the starkly barren skies of any cloud east of a very sharp delineation going from CU to nothing... In the past, the air mass east of the cloud line is coming up off the LI Sound, which this is with the SW wind. What is interesting is that it won't show up at the thermometer and DP, so I am not sure just exactly what it does (physically) to alter the atmosphere toward stability, if it the actual temp and DP suggest otherwise. In any event, it might be difficult to trigger anything east of that axis, and it may also serve to weaken segments that attempt to cross it later on. We'll see... Neat shot--I'm under the clouds here.....for whatever that's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Not too far from where I am!Cell popping and coming right for you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I just want enough of a storm to cancel my sons game Cook shack ftl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Cell popping and coming right for you! Yup! It's over the ENX radar site too so might not be getting a good sample Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 we are going to move south into Berkshire county...timing probably better there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Staying put for now. intensifying to my SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Cu field forming overhead, but they don't have as much vertical development as I'd like to see. Mid-level lapse rates leave a lot to be desired today as the flow aloft is southwesterly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Rutland is going to get it good. I'm watching that segment south of Albany. It actually had a little bit of rotation. Shear should only improve as it moves east and plenty of instability in areas its moving into. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Moving a bit further east on Rt. 7...hoping that cell further intensifies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I have seen this do this in the past... Take a look at this sat picture and note the starkly barren skies of any cloud east of a very sharp delineation going from CU to nothing... In the past, the air mass east of the cloud line is coming up off the LI Sound, which this is with the SW wind. What is interesting is that it won't show up at the thermometer and DP, so I am not sure just exactly what it does (physically) to alter the atmosphere toward stability, if it the actual temp and DP suggest otherwise. In any event, it might be difficult to trigger anything east of that axis, and it may also serve to weaken segments that attempt to cross it later on. We'll see... My guess is that it has to do with the amount of turbulent/convective mixing going on the atmosphere as it takes time for these processes to initiate and the idea that the air further west is preconditioned for convection to occur while further east it is not. Keep in mind that the air crossing over LI Sound and the adjacent Atlantic is initially very cool and stable. Although the air heats up as soon as it hits the land, convective processes take some to fire up. As such, there is not enough convection taking place east of the CT River to produce a Cu field in SNE. Notice that there is a Cu field in NH after the air has been over land long enough for convective processes to reach a threshold where Cu can form. Further west, where the SW flow has no component over water, things are already well mixed and convection has already reached a point where Cu can form. I'm not totally sure if this lag between heating and convection/mixing is large enough to explain what is going on here, but it's my 2 cents. Storms encroaching from the west will often weaken as they hit this less mixed air as it is more stable than the airmass further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 Well this is the NNE sub-forum, too. I'm fairly close to NNE as are quite a few of us, and Sunday is a nice day to go for a drive NW either way. South of HFD/ORH is not going to do well with any type of s or ssw sfc wind, usually until early July or so. Do you agree? Even with good instability, the marine taint seems to affect storms and it's pretty far inland, even if it's very subtle. I forget who has commented on this before, but that is in the back of my mind. It's hard for me to not get excited when most of the parameters look good. Sunday is a good chase day with no work. Yeah I mentioned this earlier last week. Thanks for the explanation, cool how it worked out so far. My guess is that it has to do with the amount of turbulent/convective mixing going on the atmosphere as it takes time for these processes to initiate and the idea that the air further west is preconditioned for convection to occur while further east it is not. Keep in mind that the air crossing over LI Sound and the adjacent Atlantic is initially very cool and stable. Although the air heats up as soon as it hits the land, convective processes take some to fire up. As such, there is not enough convection taking place east of the CT River to produce a Cu field in SNE. Notice that there is a Cu field in NH after the air has been over land long enough for convective processes to reach a threshold where Cu can form. Further west, where the SW flow has no component over water, things are already well mixed and convection has already reached a point where Cu can form. I'm not totally sure if this lag between heating and convection/mixing is large enough to explain what is going on here, but it's my 2 cents. Storms encroaching from the west will often weaken as they hit this less mixed air as it is more stable than the airmass further west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 What's with the name change? privacy concerns. ;( Looks like that tail-end line is perking up some and headed your way in a few hours, hope that continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 This line is going to go right to my south... near constant thunder though and the sky is very dark just to the immediate SSW. I bet some of these are dropping an ungodly amount of water in a short period of time as they cross the spine of the mountains. Rivers continue to run very high from the record wet May and additional rainfall last night. That cell right over Killington in eastern Rutland County looks like a doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Rutland County cell was a strong one... wind damage and 1" hail. PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...SUMMARYNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT210 PM EDT SUN JUN 02 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0139 PM TSTM WND DMG CASTLETON 43.61N 73.18W06/02/2013 RUTLAND VT BROADCAST MEDIA TREES AND WIRES DOWN0145 PM HAIL CASTLETON 43.61N 73.18W06/02/2013 E0.75 INCH RUTLAND VT TRAINED SPOTTER0150 PM HAIL PITTSFORD 43.71N 73.03W06/02/2013 M1.00 INCH RUTLAND VT TRAINED SPOTTER NUMEROUS TREES AND WIRES DOWN0159 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 W LINCOLN 44.11N 73.02W06/02/2013 ADDISON VT TRAINED SPOTTER SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON YORK HILL ROAD0159 PM TSTM WND DMG RUTLAND 43.61N 72.98W06/02/2013 RUTLAND VT PUBLIC TREES DOWN0205 PM HAIL CHITTENDEN 43.71N 72.95W06/02/2013 M1.00 INCH RUTLAND VT TRAINED SPOTTER0209 PM HAIL PITTSFORD 43.71N 73.03W06/02/2013 E0.75 INCH RUTLAND VT PUBLIC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 privacy concerns. ;( Looks like that tail-end line is perking up some and headed your way in a few hours, hope that continues. 'nough said. That line very well could.. As I extrapolate the radar now, its possilbe the northern one will miss to the north and the southern one will miss me to the south. But, way too soon to worry about that now. Clouds playing with the temps here. Managed 83.6 at 11:30, now down to 82.0/72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 'nough said. That line very well could.. As I extrapolate the radar now, its possilbe the northern one will miss to the north and the southern one will miss me to the south. But, way too soon to worry about that now. Clouds playing with the temps here. Managed 83.6 at 11:30, now down to 82.0/72. Storm near ny/ct/ma is pretty nasty looking, definitely perking up. Your area may get the "split", we'll see. I doubt it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Storm near ny/ct/ma is pretty nasty looking. Your area may get the "split", we'll see. I doubt it though. Yeah that one has pulsed up. Storms have had trouble staying organized, however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 Moving a bit further east on Rt. 7...hoping that cell further intensifies getting anything? Yeah that one has pulsed up. Storms have had trouble staying organized, however. Yeah but that was sort of expected though, no? I know the spc mentioned that over the past few days. Either way, the Q of whether storms were making it into WNE appears to be a resounding yes -and during peaking heating, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 87.1F at Funtown in Saco, ME. Waiting for the storms to pop. Nice breeze giving relief in the meantime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 HAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! PEA HAIL!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hvysnow79 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Sky very dark to my West with those cells with warnings in Vermont!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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