yoda Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Watch disco says best chance of a TOR seems to be in ME Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 wow, severe weather watch is just to the west of Boston. I was not expecting it to be so close. Should be a fun day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 wow, severe weather watch is just to the west of Boston. I was not expecting it to be so close. Should be a fun day. Don't be fooled by how far east it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Don't be fooled by how far east it is. C.Y.A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 maybe we should head further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 C.Y.A Well what I mean is that it's out until 00z. So, pretty much 95% of the time here in ern ma...it will be fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eekuasepinniW Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Those tiny tiny cells way over in Haverhill have strangely nice anvils. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Seems we are right on the southern periphery of this line. Just occasional thunder. The breeze feels nice though. It is clearing behind the line so I think this area should still get another round of storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Weird shaped watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Weird shaped watch Yeah ... finally a geometry that doesn't include Mt Tolland -- totally makes sense at long last Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I'm not sure why today looks all that much better than yesterday further west..which underperformed. Similar shear and CAPE values to work with along with marginal lapse rates. The things going for it may be the better defined shortwave lining up with the warm sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The further south and east you are, the less likely you are to see anything significant. NW MA up to central VT is the hotspot on the latest HRRR. Wiz, 91 would be the road to target. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 As i said in NNE: I am thinking the CPV may not see much of the severe today with the pre-frontal trough already approaching (unless later storms develop along the front itself). I would say east of a line from Montpelier to Rutland in VT stand a better chance. CAPE is higher out there as well by a good margin. I would say for those of you farther south the Berks through southern VT and NH are your best bets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 We are just east of Troy, in Brunswick on Rt. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 damage reports coming in from those warned cells...trees down Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Shear definitely increases as the day continues. The wording from the SPC seems a little gung ho. I wonder if "several wind events over 70 mph, several severe hail events, and a few tornadoes" actually verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Biggest threat today is wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Watching these structures and still need to get quite a bit higher...need to erode that cap that was around 600mb i think it as. mlvl lapse rates now approaching 6.5 C/KM too per mesoanalysis and continue to improve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Get East wizzy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Get East wizzy I think we are fine right here...if we have to head east we can do so. There is an area 5-7 miles east that is flat farmland with awesome views Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 For most of SNE ..it's an evening affair. Also a 4 day heat wave in late May is impressive .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/... * STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING * 1030 AM UPDATE... NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL. ONLY ADDITIONAL INFO IS REGARDING TIMING. THETA-E RIDGE AND SB INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THUS STORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST NH BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM. THEREAFTER STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND PROBABLY NOT REACH HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD/WORCESTER/MANCHESTER UNTIL 5 PM - 8 PM. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL DARK ACROSS RI AND EASTERN MA ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA. AS FOR SOUTHEAST MA...STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE STEADILY AND SHOULD COMPLETELY BE BURNED OFF BY NOON. DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS AT ALY AND OKX WHICH INDICATE +17C TEMPS AT H85 WITH MIXING POTENTIAL UP TO H8. THUS HIGHS IN THE U80S AND L90S SHOULD BE COMMON How many people had a 4-day heat wave? Certainly not here. I think I fell short of 88* on each of the prior 3 days, and only 81.1* at the moment (12:30p.m.). It is humid though with a dp of 72. Hoping for a few rumbles later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Some of the best soundings (nam bufkit) I've actually looked at are BDL/CEF around 5pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 5% TOR added in N ME at 1630 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 5% TOR added in N ME at 1630Sig TOR values 1+ up there. Not too shabby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Some of the hi res want to bring a strong line that stretches Litchfield County to Concord, NH. Models also want to weaken any line considerably before it reaches the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Sig TOR values 1+ up there. Not too shabby. where are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Some of the hi res want to bring a strong line that stretches Litchfield County to Concord, NH. Models also want to weaken any line considerably before it reaches the coast. lines will eventually outrun the better forcing/dynamics Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 where are you?In Albany, just scarfed down lunch. Hanging tight for now, but part of me wants to go north. Better shear up there, but more instability down here and even into NW CT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 In Albany, just scarfed down lunch. Hanging tight for now, but part of me wants to go north. Better shear up there, but more instability down here and even into NW CT... Not too far from where I am! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 lines will eventually outrun the better forcing/dynamics SB Cape has really taken off Litchfield to SW NH. Storms will have time to mature before they reach there. Also the ML Lapse rates are actually steepening. I think someone out in the berks and maybe even close to Springfield/Hartford is going to be seeing a tree toppler. Classic wind sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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