bairn Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 And it happened to a guy who is basically the opposite of the Jeff P's and Reed T's of the world. There was an article about him just a few days ago in the NY daily news I think. He was talking about trying to raise the lead times for tornado warnings...actually doing what he does in the name of science. Eerily similar to the movie Twister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 hmmm...the 12z ALB sounding is very intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Timmer is great. What he does sells and it's what the public wants. Period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Remnant EML but pretty toasty 600mb and above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Kind of meh to see winds back, but it's also a sign of cold air advection aloft. Also the lapse rates from 850 to 600 are fairly steep, but stupid warm tongue above that. Winds at 500mb will come around to more WSW, but a warmer pocket at H5 tries to move into upsate NY after 18z. Sort of competing things going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Timmer is great. What he does sells and it's what the public wants. Period He's an idiot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 He's an idiot.You don't get it. He is what people want to see. Sure it's dangerous but extremes and hype are uber marketable. It sells ratings and it gets people interested and excited. Why do you think every network wants him and his stories? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 You don't get it. He is what people want to see. Sure it's dangerous but extremes and hype are uber marketable. It sells ratings and it gets people interested and excited. Why do you think every network wants him and his stories? He always claims it's for research, but he's so full of sh*t. He's led the tornado sensationalism train and it's that train that will eventually lead to more chaser deaths as everyone tries to get too close for comfort. All this video is great, sure, but he's a tool. You should hear some of the stories I've heard from people close to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Have to see if we can get some slight cooling as the trough approaches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Troy or Glens Falls? Not sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 The HRRR moves line through eastern NY by 19-20Z as well. Best forcing is certainly further north along with better bulk shear so even if we get a line moving into MA/CT I think it should fall apart rather quickly but with the threat for isolated severe. My worry for upstate NY is this stuff comes through too early and we don't get maximized instability. We're heading to Glens Falls around 8:00...sound like a good spot to you? The HRRR nailed the storms on Wednesday. We'll see how it does today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 He always claims it's for research, but he's so full of sh*t. He's led the tornado sensationalism train and it's that train that will eventually lead to more chaser deaths as everyone tries to get too close for comfort. All this video is great, sure, but he's a tool. You should hear some of the stories I've heard from people close to him. I don't judge people I don't know, but he does seem to be a bit of a control freak and ego-trip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 I don't judge people I don't know, but he does seem to be a bit of a control freak and ego-trip. A little too animated for me, but he always seems to be in the right place at the right time.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 We are going to Troy instead of Glens Falls. We've done Troy before and just east of troy on Rt. 7 there are spots with fantastic views and traffic is very minimal outside of Troy. There is a McDonalds which is only like 5 minutes away from this spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Reed was one of the people telling those in the OKC area to flee as the El Reno tornado was ongoing. The only thing that did was start a traffic jam as the worst of the storm rolled through the metro. Of course the TV stations did the same. That may work in the country but not in a major metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Anyway these showers this morning are messing with storm potential later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Wiz may have been better off staying in CT or W Mass late day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted June 2, 2013 Author Share Posted June 2, 2013 A little too animated for me, but he always seems to be in the right place at the right time.. Smart kid but he's got some issues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Reed was one of the people telling those in the OKC area to flee as the El Reno tornado was ongoing. The only thing that did was start a traffic jam as the worst of the storm rolled through the metro. Of course the TV stations did the same. That may work in the country but not in a major metro area. I don't get that. The only way I would ever consider fleeing is if I absolutely knew I had an EF4/EF5 coming right toward my home and it was pretty flimsy with no shelter. Then I'd wait until just minutes to impact and go 1 mile in either direction to get out of the path once I was sure my location was in the damage path...but it would have to be a very special case like that which are extremely rare in their own right. Fleeing simply because there is a tornado warning or even a confirmed tornado on the ground is silly...before you even know where it is very likely to track and considering >99% of them are easily survivable without a special shelter. The worst possible thing you could have happen is people fleeing into the tornado who otherwise would have been outside the path...because of premature calls to flee when its completely unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 As far as I know it was only Reed and KFOR telling people to flee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Wiz may have been better off staying in CT or W Mass late day SPC SREF has great probs up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 MCD...watch likely...80% MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0948 AM CDT SUN JUN 02 2013AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...FAR NERN PA INTO NRN/WRN NEW ENGLANDCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 021448Z - 021715ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CNTRL NY/N-CNTRL PA BORDER AREAAND OVER NRN VT WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BYMIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS SHOULD BE DAMAGINGWINDS AND HAIL...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WATERVAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING E/NEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ISOLATEDTSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER AND IN NRNVT. MODIFIED 12-13Z KBUF AND CWMW RAOBS SUGGEST MLCIN ISMINIMAL...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED INHIBITION NOTED IN THE KALB RAOB.THE COMBINATION OF FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONGWITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OF AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60SSURFACE DEW POINTS WILL YIELD EXPANDING CONVECTION INTO THEAFTERNOON. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONALSWLY WIND PROFILES WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FORORGANIZED SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELLSTRUCTURES. STILL...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELYHINDER MORE ROBUST TSTM INTENSITY TODAY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Well we arrived at the McDonalds in Troy. Line of storms firing to the west. hoping for some fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 For most of SNE ..it's an evening affair. Also a 4 day heat wave in late May is impressive .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING *1030 AM UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING SEVERE WEATHERPOTENTIAL. ONLY ADDITIONAL INFO IS REGARDING TIMING. THETA-E RIDGEAND SB INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THUSSTORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST NH BETWEEN NOON AND2 PM. THEREAFTER STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD ANDPROBABLY NOT REACH HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD/WORCESTER/MANCHESTER UNTIL5 PM - 8 PM. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL DARK ACROSS RI ANDEASTERN MA ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA.AS FOR SOUTHEAST MA...STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE STEADILYAND SHOULD COMPLETELY BE BURNED OFF BY NOON.DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGSAT ALY AND OKX WHICH INDICATE +17C TEMPS AT H85 WITH MIXINGPOTENTIAL UP TO H8. THUS HIGHS IN THE U80S AND L90S SHOULD BECOMMON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Quite unstable out there and mlvl lapse rates have slowly improved...up to 6 C/KM now per mesoanalysis...not great but much better than 5.5 C/KM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eire015 Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Thunder here in Littleton. There is a storm just off to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Quite unstable out there and mlvl lapse rates have slowly improved...up to 6 C/KM now per mesoanalysis...not great but much better than 5.5 C/KM. for an index where .5 increment increases are sooo significant, can they not be given to the nearest tenth or quarter (.1 or .25) can they only be read to the nearest .5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 for an index where .5 increment increases are sooo significant, can they not be given to the nearest tenth or quarter (.1 or .25) can they only be read to the nearest .5? It's easier to just round to .5 increments. When you look at observed soundings, they will list them in .1 increments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted June 2, 2013 Share Posted June 2, 2013 Watch out into Middlesex county through 00z. That's quite early for areas on the ern edge of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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