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Severe Thunderstorms Sunday 6/2


free_man

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And it happened to a guy who is basically the opposite of the Jeff P's and Reed T's of the world. There was an article about him just a few days ago in the NY daily news I think. He was talking about trying to raise the lead times for tornado warnings...actually doing what he does in the name of science.

Eerily similar to the movie Twister.

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Kind of meh to see winds back, but it's also a sign of cold air advection aloft. Also the lapse rates from 850 to 600 are fairly steep, but stupid warm tongue above that. Winds at 500mb will come around to more WSW, but a warmer pocket at H5 tries to move into upsate NY after 18z. Sort of competing things going on.

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You don't get it. He is what people want to see. Sure it's dangerous but extremes and hype are uber marketable. It sells ratings and it gets people interested and excited. Why do you think every network wants him and his stories?

 

He always claims it's for research, but he's so full of sh*t. He's led the tornado sensationalism train and it's that train that will eventually lead to more chaser deaths as everyone tries to get too close for comfort. All this video is great, sure, but he's a tool. You should hear some of the stories I've heard from people close to him.

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The HRRR moves line through eastern NY by 19-20Z as well.

 

Best forcing is certainly further north along with better bulk shear so even if we get a line moving into MA/CT I think it should fall apart rather quickly but with the threat for isolated severe.

 

My worry for upstate NY is this stuff comes through too early and we don't get maximized instability.  We're heading to Glens Falls around 8:00...sound like a good spot to you?

The HRRR nailed the storms on Wednesday. We'll see how it does today.

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He always claims it's for research, but he's so full of sh*t. He's led the tornado sensationalism train and it's that train that will eventually lead to more chaser deaths as everyone tries to get too close for comfort. All this video is great, sure, but he's a tool. You should hear some of the stories I've heard from people close to him.

I don't judge people I don't know, but he does seem to be a bit of a control freak and ego-trip.

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Reed was one of the people telling those in the OKC area to flee as the El Reno tornado was ongoing. The only thing that did was start a traffic jam as the worst of the storm rolled through the metro. Of course the TV stations did the same. That may work in the country but not in a major metro area.

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Reed was one of the people telling those in the OKC area to flee as the El Reno tornado was ongoing. The only thing that did was start a traffic jam as the worst of the storm rolled through the metro. Of course the TV stations did the same. That may work in the country but not in a major metro area.

 

 

I don't get that. The only way I would ever consider fleeing is if I absolutely knew I had an EF4/EF5 coming right toward my home and it was pretty flimsy with no shelter. Then I'd wait until just minutes to impact and go 1 mile in either direction to get out of the path once I was sure my location was in the damage path...but it would have to be a very special case like that which are extremely rare in their own right.

 

Fleeing simply because there is a tornado warning or even a confirmed tornado on the ground is silly...before you even know where it is very likely to track and considering >99% of them are easily survivable without a special shelter. The worst possible thing you could have happen is people fleeing into the tornado who otherwise would have been outside the path...because of premature calls to flee when its completely unnecessary.

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MCD...watch likely...80%

 

mcd0934.gif


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0934
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0948 AM CDT SUN JUN 02 2013

AREAS AFFECTED...ERN NY...FAR NERN PA INTO NRN/WRN NEW ENGLAND

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 021448Z - 021715Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

SUMMARY...TSTMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CNTRL NY/N-CNTRL PA BORDER AREA
AND OVER NRN VT WILL LIKELY EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY
MIDDAY/EARLY AFTERNOON. PRIMARY SEVERE RISKS SHOULD BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND HAIL...BUT A TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

DISCUSSION...DOWNSTREAM OF A WELL-DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHIFTING E/NEWD FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...ISOLATED
TSTMS HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO FORM ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER AND IN NRN
VT. MODIFIED 12-13Z KBUF AND CWMW RAOBS SUGGEST MLCIN IS
MINIMAL...WITH MORE PRONOUNCED INHIBITION NOTED IN THE KALB RAOB.
THE COMBINATION OF FORCED ASCENT AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH ALONG
WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OF AN AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY 60S
SURFACE DEW POINTS WILL YIELD EXPANDING CONVECTION INTO THE
AFTERNOON. ATTENDANT MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX AND NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL
SWLY WIND PROFILES WILL YIELD SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR
ORGANIZED SHORT-LINE SEGMENTS AND PERHAPS TRANSIENT SUPERCELL
STRUCTURES. STILL...MARGINAL MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY ULTIMATELY
HINDER MORE ROBUST TSTM INTENSITY TODAY.
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For most of SNE ..it's an evening affair.  Also a 4 day heat wave in late May is impressive

 

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 PM THIS EVENING/...
* STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING *

1030 AM UPDATE...

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL. ONLY ADDITIONAL INFO IS REGARDING TIMING. THETA-E RIDGE
AND SB INSTABILITY AXIS MOVES VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TODAY. THUS
STORMS WILL ENTER WESTERN CT/MA AND SOUTHWEST NH BETWEEN NOON AND
2 PM. THEREAFTER STORMS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
PROBABLY NOT REACH HARTFORD/SPRINGFIELD/WORCESTER/MANCHESTER UNTIL
5 PM - 8 PM. DRY WEATHER SHOULD PREVAIL UNTIL DARK ACROSS RI AND
EASTERN MA ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST MA.

AS FOR SOUTHEAST MA...STRATUS AND FOG CONTINUES TO ERODE STEADILY
AND SHOULD COMPLETELY BE BURNED OFF BY NOON.

DID INCREASE MAX TEMPS BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND UPSTREAM SOUNDINGS
AT ALY AND OKX WHICH INDICATE +17C TEMPS AT H85 WITH MIXING
POTENTIAL UP TO H8. THUS HIGHS IN THE U80S AND L90S SHOULD BE
COMMON

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Quite unstable out there and mlvl lapse rates have slowly improved...up to 6 C/KM now per mesoanalysis...not great but much better than 5.5 C/KM.

for an index where .5 increment increases are sooo significant, can they not be given to the nearest tenth or quarter (.1 or .25) can they only be read to the nearest .5?
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for an index where .5 increment increases are sooo significant, can they not be given to the nearest tenth or quarter (.1 or .25) can they only be read to the nearest .5?

 

It's easier to just round to .5 increments.  When you look at observed soundings, they will list them in .1 increments.  

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