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Severe Thunderstorms Sunday 6/2


free_man

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As long as the chasers aren't risking any bystanders' lives then I couldn't care less. If they want to risk their own lives it's their choice, but Darwin is knocking on their doors. I'll keep enjoying the videos from my living room and I'm sure everyone else here will too.

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It's a weird case where the LLJ actually becomes fairly strong (40 knots at 850mb) but winds upstairs in the mid troposphere are weaker (30ish knots at 500mb). 

 

So there will be some decent speed shear in low levels but deep layer shear fairly meh. 

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It's a weird case where the LLJ actually becomes fairly strong (40 knots at 850mb) but winds upstairs in the mid troposphere are weaker (30ish knots at 500mb). 

 

So there will be some decent speed shear in low levels but deep layer shear fairly meh. 

 

Unless you have good CAPE, that's kind of sucky. 

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Unless you have good CAPE, that's kind of sucky. 

 

Storms will probably be fairly widespread... and I don't think things hold off until late like some of the models showed. Height falls all day as the trough approaches with a few embedded shortwaves. WIth that kicking LLJ we should see quite a bit of storminess. 

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It's a weird case where the LLJ actually becomes fairly strong (40 knots at 850mb) but winds upstairs in the mid troposphere are weaker (30ish knots at 500mb). 

 

So there will be some decent speed shear in low levels but deep layer shear fairly meh. 

 

You're talking more for SNE than NYS, right?  Much better speed shear throughout the column in NY than here 

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Will look more at work when I get in

 

Alright.

 

I'm really interested in upstate NY (around or just north of the Albany area) but there are still so many questions really;

 

1) Timing of the cold front/pre-frontal trough

2) Cloud cover/instability

3) mlvl lapse rates (GFS more favorable than the NAM)

4) better helicity values occur between 15z and 18z

 

In the end it's just about timing all the best parameters together which doesn't seem to happen often here.  

 

GFS has been fairly consistent though with it's evolution and parameters and the NAM has boosted up instability values, closer to what the GFS has been spitting out but it's still meh with the lapse rates.

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Sounds like you may have to go N of ALB  to get any spin ups per teh 1730 OTLK Wiz

 

 


A WEAK TORNADO THREAT CANNOT BE RULED OUT MAINLY FROM NRN NY ACROSS  VT/NH INTO ME COINCIDENT WITH THE STRONGEST FORCING AND MORE  FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL SHEAR DURING THE DAY.
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Not so sure that Bettes got hit by a satellite tornado........video here

 

Don't know how many multi-vortex satellite tornadoes have ever been documented lol

 

Based on radar, it looked like the circulation went right over them. 

 

Check out 1:10 on the video when Dr. Forbes loops the radar and shows how the debris ball passed directly over their location (the dot).

 

 

The tornado took a turn to the north instead of continuing moving ESE...

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Not so sure that Bettes got hit by a satellite tornado........video here

 

Don't know how many multi-vortex satellite tornadoes have ever been documented lol

 

Dr. Forbes just went over a hi res mobile doppler radar image courtesy H. Bluestein of Univ. Oklahoma.  It shows that the satellite tornado was on the NW side of the main tornado... while Mike Bettes and crew were hit by the the SE part of the tornado. 

 

So it does not appear that Mike Bettes was hit by a satellite tornado.

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