dryslot Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Pretty good probs for 3 days out on possible severe up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 meh... while the SPC probs "look" good it's really a continuation of the D4-D5 outlook where they had us at 30% too. Seems to me like upstate NY may have some decent storms but I'm thinking everything lines out quickly and instability is just pretty meager all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 meh... while the SPC probs "look" good it's really a continuation of the D4-D5 outlook where they had us at 30% too. Seems to me like upstate NY may have some decent storms but I'm thinking everything lines out quickly and instability is just pretty meager all around. You don't think this looks good for upstate NY? Models aren't that great with instability but if there is more clearing than models anticipate instability could be quite high out that way...I think right now that along with the lapse rates are the biggest questions...shear is certainly there along with lift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 meh... while the SPC probs "look" good it's really a continuation of the D4-D5 outlook where they had us at 30% too. Seems to me like upstate NY may have some decent storms but I'm thinking everything lines out quickly and instability is just pretty meager all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Should be plenty of damage Sunday, perhaps even a mdt risk upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Should be plenty of damage Sunday, perhaps even a mdt risk upgrade.Lol Birving with the name change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Sunday is meh for SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 It probably ends up a dud up here as well, Not often we see severe anyways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 We'll see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 We see more strong storms then severe here during any season, They usually have shot there load in the mountains and foothills by the time they arrive in the coastal plain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 ..NORTHEAST/MID-ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND...A MID/HIGH LEVEL SPEED MAX IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD OVERTHE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON THE PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER TROUGHPIVOTING OVER ONTARIO/QUEBEC AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION. WHILESHOWERS/SOME TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE COLD FRONT EARLYSUNDAY...POCKETS OF STRONGER DESTABILIZATION ARE PROBABLE AHEAD OFTHE FRONT...ALTHOUGH WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES MAY TEMPER THEOVERALL DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. EVEN SO...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF1000 J/KG OR GREATER WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR STRONG/SEVERE TSTMDEVELOPMENT AND INTENSIFICATION INTO THE AFTERNOON.AS STORMS MATURE...STRONG DEEP LAYER SOUTHWESTERLYWINDS...ACCENTUATED BY AS MUCH AS 35-50 KT BETWEEN 2-6 KM...WILLSUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED CLUSTERS OF STORMSINCLUDING BOWS. DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...ALTHOUGHSOME SEVERE HAIL/PERHAPS A TORNADO THREAT MAY EXIST AS WELL. Hard to ignore the overall wind field, time of year/recent severe, and at least modest instability. Sunday wasn't an ENE day, mostly NYS/NNE/W MA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Lol Birving with the name change Who was drinking heavily when 1 change per 30,000 days was set? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 It may barely squeak into wrn ma as severe. Most of SNE is meh. NY and NNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Sunday night could be wild for us as modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 All I care about is NYS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 It may barely squeak into wrn ma as severe. Most of SNE is meh. NY and NNE. Yeah, not even a rumble down your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Monday is definitely the better day for eastern NE, but that isn't saying much. Maybe it'll look better tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 All I care about is NYS Same here. Wiz, I'm working on a write-up of the EF-2 tornado. Could be interesting to plot our locations. Where were you around 7 PM Wednesday? Ryan was near Great Barrington, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 It probably ends up a dud up here as well, Not often we see severe anyways Once in 15 yr at my place, though the 8/07 treekiller hailstorm was less than 10 miles away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Same here. Wiz, I'm working on a write-up of the EF-2 tornado. Could be interesting to plot our locations. Where were you around 7 PM Wednesday? Ryan was near Great Barrington, right? I was right beat Lenox...Hust south of Pittsfield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Same here. Wiz, I'm working on a write-up of the EF-2 tornado. Could be interesting to plot our locations. Where were you around 7 PM Wednesday? Ryan was near Great Barrington, right? I bailed by 5. We were there for work so no point in staying for a late show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I bailed by 5. We were there for work so no point in staying for a late show. Ah, I see. Sam was up in Litchfield County until 6ish. There was no point for them to stay either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Once in 15 yr at my place, though the 8/07 treekiller hailstorm was less than 10 miles away. Yup, Some strong ones on occasion, Severe are rare Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I am hoping some of the action gets to the CPV in VT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Guess we are starting early........ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDSEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME151 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CARIBOU MAINE HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... CENTRAL PISCATAQUIS COUNTY IN NORTH CENTRAL MAINE... THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...RIPOGENUS...MOUNT KATAHDIN...BAXTER ST PARK... NORTH CENTRAL SOMERSET COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MAINE...* UNTIL 230 PM EDT* AT 149 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF SEBOOMOOK...OR 27 MILES WEST OF RIPOGENUS...AND MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.* OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO CAUCOMGOMOC LAKE...LOBSTER LAKE...CHESUNCOOK AND TELOS LAKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 For wiz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 18z NAM reflectivity shows a potent line of storms reaching eastern N.Y. and Vermont by mid-afternoon, but the line doesn't survive very far east into New England. Keeps looking like northwest is the direction to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Sweet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 West of the Hudson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Massive Tor on radar heading toward OKC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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