icebreaker5221 Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 Final scores (combined seasonal and monthly) before bonus points ____________________________________________________________ Forecaster _________________ Seasonal _______ Monthly _________ TOTAL ____ bonus Normal 1993 to 2012_______________ 75 ______________ 84.5 ____________ 159.5 icebreaker5221 ___________________ 67 ______________ 84.8 _____________ 151.8 CandymanColumbusGA _____________ 67 ______________ 80.3 ____________ 147.3 + 8 = 155.3 Chicago Storm* ___________________ 52 ______________ 87.2 ____________ 139.2 (157.2) + 1 = 140.2 PSU Blizzicane2007________________ 68 _______________ 68.5 ____________ 136.5 + 1 = 137.5 Wxmeddler ______________________ 48 _______________ 87.5 ____________ 135.5 + 5 = 140.5 yoda ___________________________ 63 _______________ 72.1 ____________ 135.1 + 1 = 136.1 andyhb _________________________ 50 _______________ 83.4 ____________ 133.4 Consensus _______________________ 47 ______________ 82.8 _____________ 129.8 Inudaw _________________________ 48 _______________ 81.3 ____________ 129.3 bkviking _________________________46 ______________ 80.4 _____________ 126.4 + 2 = 128.4 wxmx __________________________ 58 ______________ 66.0 _____________ 124.0 superstorm93 ____________________ 58 ______________ 65.0 _____________ 123.0 TropicalAnalystwx13 _______________ 38 ______________ 80.0 _____________ 118.0 + 3 = 121.0 Ed Lizard ________________________ 36 ______________ 80.6 _____________ 116.6 + 6 = 122.6 Ellinwood________________________ 48 _______________ 68.4 ____________ 116.4 Roger Smith ______________________45_______________ 67.0 _____________ 112.0 Free Man ________________________ 71_______________ 39.8 _____________ 110.8 U Thant _________________________ 41 ______________ 69.6 _____________ 110.6 Cyclogent* _______________________37 ______________ 65.0 _____________ 102.0 (115.3) Boulderr _________________________67 ______________ 34.0 _____________ 101.0 + 7 = 108.0 Hurricaneman ____________________ 33 ______________ 66.0 ______________ 99.0 +1 = 100.0 Stebo ___________________________ 08 ______________ 77.0 ______________ 85.0 snowflake22 _____________________ 51 _______________ 31.0 _____________ 82.0 Pluffmud ________________________ 54 ______________ 20.0 ______________74.0 Metallicwx366 ____________________ 06 ______________ 57.0 ______________ 63.0 My Weather Today ________________ 28 ______________ 33.5 ______________ 61.5 Weatherkid#27 ___________________ 53 _______________8.0 ______________ 61.0 + 9 = 70.0 Tropical Wx ______________________ 33 ______________ 21.0 ______________ 54.0 Dunkman ________________________ 46 _______________ 7.0 ______________ 53.0 + 10 = 63.0 Southern Sniow ___________________ 27 ______________ 22.0 ______________ 49.0 + 1 = 50.0 Jonathan Belles ___________________ 27 ______________ 20.2 ______________ 47.2 Yanks Fan _______________________ 00 ______________ 32.0 ______________ 32.0 hudsonvalley21 ___________________ 24 _______________ 6.6 ______________ 30.6 + 4 = 34.6 * started July 1st and max scores possible are 85,92 ... scores in brackets show comparative scoring out of 200. _______________________________________________________________ (Dec 4) I have adjusted this table to reflect the 10-pt bonus question about landfalling storms. For now, it's hearty congrats to Normal 1993-2012 (zero posts) and among us humans, Icebreaker5221 and CandymanColumbusGA leading the way (Candyman moves ahead on bonus points). Late starter Chicago Storm had an even better scoring rate per points available (before bonus added). Normal 1893-1912 might have done even better than his modern counterpart. In general, the better seasonal forecasts were not highly correlated with monthly scores especially when I factor in the tendency for low seasonal scorers to give up and stop forecasting monthly numbers earlier than those with good seasonal scores looming. But some of us just sucked in general (my hand is certainly up). So when do I get my check in the mail? Still, losing to climo is nothing to celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted December 9, 2013 Share Posted December 9, 2013 3rd with highest monthly score.. schweet! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CandymanColumbusGA Posted December 10, 2013 Share Posted December 10, 2013 Finished 2nd for the 2nd straight year... BOO!!! However, I come in first if we count the bonus points! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted December 10, 2013 Author Share Posted December 10, 2013 Too bad we had such a nice contest going then almost no action, but it is what it is -- now, if there happens to be a very late 14th named storm, that probably won't change the standings very much, I think almost everyone near the top would gain one or two points on seasonal then lose one on the popular Nov-Dec forecast of 1,0,0 which verified (so far). But if there is another storm I will reboot the scoring and edit the tables. Notice that I didn't change the scoring ranks for the bonus question, just in case a freak cat-1 hurricane shows up and hits shore, as that would nullify all of those bonus points (although not the intensity part or probably the landfall part, so maybe it wouldn't be all that different). I would have to think the chances of this are less than one in a thousand, in fact, other than perhaps Dec 1, 1925 or thereabouts, I am not aware of a December landfalling hurricane in the U.S. Anyway, congrats to all who managed to beat consensus, and let's hope that the 2014 contest will be more exciting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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