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2013 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- provisional contest results

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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June-September scoring

_________________________

 

Your June forecast was worth 8/100 of the monthly half of the contest.

Your July forecast was worth 15/100 of the monthly portion.

Your August forecast was worth 25/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 2,0,0.

Your September forecast was worth 30/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 4,2,0. 

These are the scores:

 

FORECASTER ____________ JUN - JUL - AUG - SEP ___ Total

 

yoda ___________________6.1 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 29.0 ___ 72.1

Ellinwood _______________ 6.9 _ 13.3 _ 20.0 _ 28.2 ___ 68.4

wxmeddler ______________ 7.4 _ 14.3 _ 15.9 _ 29.1 ___ 66.7

Chicago Storm ___________ 0.0 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 29.2 __ 66.2

superstorm93 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 _ 18.0 _ 27.0 ___ 65.0

icebreaker5221 __________ 7.6 _ 13.6 _ 18.0 _ 25.0 ___ 64.2

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 6.7 _ 14.1 _ 18.3 _ 25.1 ___ 64.2

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 7.0 _ 13.5 _ 17.2 _ 26.1 ___ 63.8

 

andyhb _________________7.0 _ 12.0 _ 15.7 _ 28.1 ___ 62.8

CandymanColumbusGA ____7.9 _ 13.6 _ 14.7 _ 25.0 ___ 61.2

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 _ 27.0 ___ 61.0

Ed Lizard _______________ 7.6 _ 14.0 _ 13.8 _ 25.2 ___ 60.6

bkviking ________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 11.7 _ 26.7 ___ 60.4

Inudaw _________________ 7.6 _ 12.9 _ 11.7 _ 27.9 ___ 60.1

Stebo __________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 13.0 _ 28.0 ___ 60.0

wxmx __________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 _ 25.0 ___ 59.0

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 7.0 _ 27.0 ___ 54.0

Roger Smith _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 _ 21.0 ___ 52.0

Hurricaneman ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 6.0 _ 23.0 ___ 50.0

U Thant ________________ 8.0 __ 9.7 _ 14.3 _ 16.6 ___ 48.6

cyclogent _______________ 0.0 _ 13.0 _ 15.0 _ 18.0 ___ 46.0

Metalicwx366 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 __ 6.0 _ 15.0 ___ 41.0

snowflake22 _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 __ 0.0 ___ 31.0

boulderr ________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 ___ 34.0

My Weather Today ________ 7.0 __ 8.5 _ 18.0 __ 0.0 ___ 33.5

YanksFan27 _____________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 25.0 ___ 32.0

Blizzardwarning __________ 0.0 _ 11.5 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 ___ 26.5

Free_Man _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 _ 18.0 __ 0.0 ___ 25.0

Southern Snow___________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 0.0 __ 0.0  ___ 22.0

Tropical Wx _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 21.0

JonathanBelles___________ 7.6 _ 12.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0  ___ 20.2

Pluffmud _______________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 20.0

Weatherkid#27 __________ 8.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 8.0

Dunkman _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 7.0

hudsonvalley21___________6.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 6.6

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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October and Nov-Dec forecasts 


_________________________


 


If you're a regular, enter soon, October is worth 20/100 and N-D will be worth 2 more. Penalty countdown from 06z is at 1% per hour so by 0200h 2nd EDT, at 25%.


 


FORECASTER ____________ SEASONAL FORECAST ____ OCTOBER FCST ______ MAX US LANDFALLING STORM


 


Seasonal forecast update is most recent, no further updates were accepted under the rules.


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________


 


YanksFan27 _____________ 23 ____ 15 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10


 


Metalicwx366 __ (J,J,A) ___ 20 ____ 12 ____ 4 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10


Metalicwx366 ___ (S) _____ 16 _____ 8 ____ 4 _______ already scored __________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


Stebo ____ (J,J,A) ________20 ____ 11 ____ 5 _______ already scored ___________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12


Stebo ______ (S) ________ 14 _____ 7 ____ 3 _______ already scored ___________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0


 


My Weather Today __(J,J)__ 19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ already scored __________ cat-5 .. sFL .. 09


My Weather Today (Aug) __ 19 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ already scored ___________


 


hudsonvalley21 __________19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06


 


JonathanBelles (-4% Jul) __ 19 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- ________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16


 


Ed Lizard ____ (J,J) ______ 18 ____ 11 ____3 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03


Ed Lizard ____ (August) ___ 17 ____ 9 ____ 3 _______ already scored ____________


Ed Lizard ____ (S) _______ 15 _____ 6 ___ 3 _______ already scored __________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


TropicalAnalystwx13 _(J,J)__ 18 ___ 10 ____ 4 _______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05


Tropical ""__ (August/Sept) _ 16 ____ 9 ____ 3 _______ already scored


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


Dunkman ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14


 


Ellinwood _____ (J,J,A) ___18 _____ 9 ____ 3.5 ______ already scored _________


Ellinwood ______ (S) ____ 16 _____ 7 ____ 2.5 ______ already scored _________


 


Weatherkid#27 _________ 18 _____ 8 ____ 4 ________ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27


 


Pluffmud ______________ 18 _____ 7 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late


 


Inudaw _____ (J,J,A) ___ 17.8 ____ 9.5 __ 4.2 _____ already scored ____________


Inudaw _______ (S) ____ 14.5 ____ 4.8 ___ 2.0 _____ already scored _______


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 1.5 __ 0.5 ___ 0


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


U Thant ____ (J,J) _______ 17.5 ___ 10.5 __ 6.5 _____ already scored _________ cat-3 sw FL no date (added 6-21)


U Thant ____ (August) ____ 17 ____ 10 ___ 5.5 ______ already scored ___________


U Thant _(-8%) _ (S) _____ 16 _____ 8 ___ 5 ________ already scored ___________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


wxmeddler ___(June,July) _ 17.4 ____ 9.8 __ 4.4 ______already scored ___________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02


wxmeddler ____(Aug) ____ 17.4 ____ 8.7 __ 4.1 ______ already scored ___________


wxmeddler ____ (S) ______ 15.0 ____ 5.4 __ 2.5 _____ already scored _________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 1.7 ___ 0.7 ___ 0.1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 0.6 ___ 0 ____ 0


 


 


CONSENSUS ____ (Jun) ___ 17.2 ___ 9.7 ___ 4 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09--08


CONSENSUS ____ (Jul) ___ 17.1 ___ 9.7 ___ 4 _______ already scored __________


CONSENSUS ____ (Aug) __ 17.0 ___ 9.5 ___ 4 _______ already scored __________


CONSENSUS _____ (S) ___ 15.5 ___ 7.5 ___ 3.5 ______ already scored _________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 2 __ 1.5 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


Tropical Wx _____________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________


 


Hurricaneman ___________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ already scored _________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


bkviking _____ (J,J,A) ____ 17 ____ 10 ____ 4 ______ already scored ___________ cat-3 ... nw FL


bkviking _______ (S) _____ 15 _____ 5 ___ 2.5 ______ already scored


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


Roger Smith __ (J,J,A) ___ 17 ____ 10 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18


Roger Smith _____ (S) ___ 17 _____ 7 _____ 3 _______already scored _________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1


 


 


andyhb ______ (J,J) _____ 17 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24


andyhb ____ (August) ____ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________


andyhb ______ (S) ______ 13 _____ 4 ____ 2.5 _______ already scored ________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0.5


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


 


wxmx ____ (J,J,A) _______ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-4 .. s TX


wxmx _____ (S) _________ 15 _____ 6 _____ 3 ______ already scored ________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 5 ___ 3 ___ 2


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


Chicago Storm (JUL entry) __ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. StP FL 8-23 (6-30)


Chicago Storm (Aug) ______ 16 ____ 7 _____ 3 ______ already scored __________


Chicago Storm (S) ________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 2 ______ already scored ________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


 


yoda ______ (J,J,A) ______ 17 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16


yoda _______ (S) ________ 14 _____ 6 _____ 2 ______ already scored _________


 


CandymanColumbusGA ____ 16.8 ____ 7.4 ___ 3.1 _____ already scored _________ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20


CandymanColumbusGA _(S)_15.8 ____ 5.5 ___ 3.9 _____ already scored


______ (-10%) __ (Oct) ______________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0


______ (no pen) _ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


snowflake22 ___June ______ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ J,J scored already_______ cat-2 .. seTX .. 07-25


snowflake22 ___July, Aug___ 16 _____10 _____ 5 ______ scored already _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-20 (6-22)


 


superstorm93 __(June,July) _ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29


superstorm93 ___ (August) _ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ already scored __________


superstorm93 ___ (S) _____ 14 _____ 5 _____ 2 _______ already scored __________


 


icebreaker5221 __ (J,J,A) __ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____already scored _________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03


icebreaker5221 ___ (S) ____15 _____ 5 _____ 3 ______ already scored ________


_______________(Oct) ______________________________ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0.5


_______________ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


boulderr ________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31


 


PSUBlizzicane2007 _ (J,J,A) 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20


PSUBlizzicane2007 __ (S) __ 15 _____ 5 _____ 2 ______ already scored _________


____ (-15%) ___________(Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1


_____ ( no pen) ________ (N,D) _____________________________ -- ___ -- ___ --


 


Southern Snow ___________ 15 ____ 11 _____ 5 ______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14


 


Cyclogent (July seasonal entry) 15 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 _ (Oct, N-D 0,0,0) _ cat-3 GA Sep 13 (6-22)


 


 


NORMAL '93 to '12 __ (Oct) _____ 14.5 ___ 7.6 ____ 3.4 _____ 2.6 __ 1.3 __ 0.5 ________


_____________________ (N-D) __________________________ 0.6 __ 0.3 __ 0.1 _______


 


 


 


Free_Man ___ (June,July) __ 13 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____already scored_ _________ cat-2 .. c TX ..


Free_Man ___ (Aug on) ____ 15 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ -- ___ -- ____ -- _________


______ (-20%) __ (Oct) ______________________________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 0


______ (no pen) _ (N,D) _____________________________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


Blizzard Warning _____________ no seasonal fcst yet ____ -- ___ -- ___ -- ___


 


J Consor _________(Oct) _____ just for fun monthly entry __ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1


J Consor ________ (N,D) ____________"" "" _____________ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0


 


_____________________________________________________________________________


 


In the above, no new entry or -- -- -- entries indicate no monthly forecast yet received for Oct or N-D, in some cases the blanks refer back to earlier month which is the last month of any seasonal update indicated, or July where not indicated.


 


The consensus values are an average of median and mean since the cluster effect was going to give a false result for median alone.


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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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October: 3/1/1

Not doing November yet

Season unchanged

 

Under my quirky rules you have to give Nov-Dec with this forecast. Really this more or less replaces the old concept of updating the seasonal forecast on October 1st, it's the same calculation if you follow my drift.

 

The late penalty doesn't apply if you notice this a day or two from now, just edit in and I will post it above. Contest entries close entirely this week.

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PSUBlizzicane2007

PSUBlizzicane2007

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Under my quirky rules you have to give Nov-Dec with this forecast. Really this more or less replaces the old concept of updating the seasonal forecast on October 1st, it's the same calculation if you follow my drift.

 

The late penalty doesn't apply if you notice this a day or two from now, just edit in and I will post it above. Contest entries close entirely this week.

 

I'm not going to do it because scientifically it's too early to judge whether or not the subtropics may or may not produce an STS during November.  I'd rather wait to see how conditions are through October and to maintain consistency through previous months.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Just an update (really, you exclaim) ... so far the bonus question about max landfall in the US is sitting at June 6th 60 mph TS (Andrea) in nw FL. If you guessed that, you're not one of us.

 

So that means the bonus remains unresolved because obviously that could still be beaten out by any sort of Novembercane or even a Decembercane. The chances of this at random would appear to be less than one in three (including what's left of October).

 

But so far, if your guess was for an early date and a weak hurricane, you'll be scoring well on this bonus.

 

Meanwhile, just for sake of argument, here's how various seasonal forecasts (if unaltered over season) would score at an outcome of 12/3/0 which is what we'll have if one more storm develops and it becomes a hurricane. I won't even bother you with the 11/2/0 scores. For 12/2/0 these scores would drop a few points each.

 

20/10/5 scores 21/100

 

19/10/5 scores 29/100

 

18/9/4 scores 48/100

 

17/9/3 scores 58/100

 

16/8/3 scores 69/100

 

15/7/2 scores 81/100

 

14/6/1 scores 90/100

 

For late entrants, note that you're working off 70 for a July entry.

 

Those estimates should give you a rough idea where your seasonal forecasts will finish in the scoring system. You never know what might happen (1887 had four storms later than today's date).

 

(edit)

 

With Lorenzo added in, the concept of potential score from a Nov storm that becomes a hurricane now shifts to 13,3,0 rather than 12,3,0 ... this would boost all of the above as follows:

 

20/10/5 scores 29/100

 

19/10/5 scores 36/100

 

18/9/4 scores 54/100

 

17/9/3 scores 63/100

 

16/8/3 scores 73/100

 

15/7/2 scores 84/100

 

14/6/1 scores 92/100

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Roger Smith

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June-October scoring

_________________________

 

Your June forecast was worth 8/100 of the monthly half of the contest.

Your July forecast was worth 15/100 of the monthly portion.

Your August forecast was worth 25/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 2,0,0.

Your September forecast was worth 30/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 4,2,0.

Your October forecast was worth 20/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a provisional count of 2,0,0

These are the scores:

 

FORECASTER ____________ JUN - JUL - AUG - SEP _ OCT ___ Total

 

wxmeddler ______________ 7.4 _ 14.3 _ 15.9 _ 29.1 _ 19.1 __ 85.8

Chicago Storm ___________ 0.0 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 29.2 _ 19.0 __ 85.2

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 6.7 _ 14.1 _ 18.3 _ 25.1 _ 18.9 ___ 83.1

 

icebreaker5221 ___________ 7.6 _ 13.6 _ 18.0 _ 25.0 _ 18.6 ___ 82.8

andyhb _________________7.0 _ 12.0 _ 15.7 _ 28.1 _ 18.6 ___ 81.4

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 7.0 _ 13.5 _ 17.2 _ 26.1 _ 17.1 ___ 80.8

 

Inudaw ________________ 7.6 _ 12.9 _ 11.7 _ 27.9 _ 19.2 ___ 79.3

CandymanColumbusGA ____7.9 _ 13.6 _ 14.7 _ 25.0 _ 17.1 ___ 78.3

Ed Lizard _______________ 7.6 _ 14.0 _ 13.8 _ 25.2 _ 18.0 ___ 78.6

bkviking ________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 11.7 _ 26.7 _18.0 ___ 78.4

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 _ 27.0 _ 17.0 ___ 78.0

Stebo __________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 13.0 _ 28.0 _17.0 ___ 77.0

yoda ___________________6.1 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 29.0 __ 0.0 ___ 72.1

Ellinwood _______________ 6.9 _ 13.3 _ 20.0 _ 28.2 __ 0.0 ___ 68.4

superstorm93 ____________ 7.0 _ 13.0 _ 18.0 _ 27.0 __ 0.0 ___ 65.0

wxmx __________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 5.0 ___ 64.0

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 7.0 _ 27.0 _ 14.5 ___ 68.5

Roger Smith _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 _ 21.0 _ 15.0 ___ 67.0

Hurricaneman ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 6.0 _ 23.0 _ 15.0 ___ 65.0

U Thant ________________ 8.0 __ 9.7 _ 14.3 _ 16.6 _ 19.0 ___ 67.6

cyclogent _______________ 0.0 _ 13.0 _ 15.0 _ 18.0 _ 18.0 ___ 64.0

Metalicwx366 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 __ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ 15.0 ___ 56.0

Free_Man _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 _ 18.0 __ 0.0 _ 12.8 ___ 37.8

snowflake22 _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 31.0

boulderr ________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 34.0

My Weather Today ________ 7.0 __ 8.5 _ 18.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 33.5

YanksFan27 _____________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 ___ 32.0

Blizzardwarning __________ 0.0 _ 11.5 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 26.5

Southern Snow___________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 22.0

Tropical Wx _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 21.0

JonathanBelles___________ 7.6 _ 12.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 20.2

Pluffmud _______________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 20.0

J consor ______________________________________ 15.0 = 13.5

Weatherkid#27 __________ 8.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 8.0

Dunkman _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 7.0

hudsonvalley21___________6.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 6.6

__________________________________________________________________________

 

 

Just two points available for your already-submitted Nov-Dec forecasts.

 

See previous post to get an idea of your seasonal scores. These will be posted towards the end of November with the option of adjusting them later if necessary.

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Roger Smith

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Provisional seasonal scoring -- updated for Melissa

 

 

The previous post gives all but 2% of your monthly forecast scores. That 2% depends on the count in Nov-Dec. This table gives your provisional scores as of the current count of 13,2,0. If we get any further increases in storm or hurricane count, I will have to do this over. Scores are likely to remain in this order. The bonus question scoring will have to wait until the season officially ends because anything that happens now could totally reverse the bonus scores for date if not location and intensity.

 

 

Just a reminder, your seasonal score is based on 70% for the original June entry (60% if your first entry was July), then 15% for most of the field for the July update, 10% for August (15% if you started in July) then 5% for the September update (10% for the few late starters in July). This imposes a 15% late penalty to July first entries and a 30% late penalty would have been applied to any August first seasonal entrants (nobody entered that late). As nobody was significantly late with any monthly forecast, I won't bother to apply any tiny late penalties to any of these:

 

 

FORECASTER ___________ JUN entry _ JUL entry _ AUG entry _ SEP entry _ Total (max 100 unless noted)

 

 

Normal 1993 to 2012__________ 52 _____ 12 _____ 07  _____ 04 _____ 75

 

Free Man __________________ 50 ______ 12 ______ 06 _____ 03 _____ 71

PSU Blizzicane2007___________ 47 ______ 10______ 07 _____ 04 _____ 68

CandymanColumbusGA _______ 47 ______ 10______ 07 _____ 03 _____ 67

Boulderr ___________________ 47 ______ 10 ______ 07 _____ 03 _____ 67

icebreaker5221 ______________46 ______ 10 ______ 07 _____ 04 _____ 67

yoda ______________________ 44 ______ 09 ______ 06 _____ 04 _____ 63

wxmx _____________________ 39 ______ 09 ______ 06 _____ 04 _____ 58

superstorm93 _______________ 39 ______ 08 ______ 07 _____ 04 _____ 58

Pluffmud ___________________ 38 ______ 08 ______ 05 _____ 03 _____ 54

Weatherkid#27 ______________ 37 ______ 08 ______ 05 _____ 03 _____ 53

Chicago Storm __ (Jul start) ___ --- _______ 33 ______ 10 _____ 09 _____ 52 --max 85--

snowflake22 ________________ 39 _______ 06 ______ 04 _____ 02 _____ 51

andyhb ____________________ 32 _______ 07 ______ 07 _____ 04 _____ 50

Ellinwood___________________ 31 _______ 07 ______ 07 _____ 03 _____ 48

Inudaw ____________________ 31 _______ 07 ______ 06 _____ 04 _____ 48

Wxmeddler _________________ 31 _______ 07 ______ 06 _____ 04 _____ 48

 

Consensus __________________ 31 _______ 07 ______ 05 _____ 04 _____ 47

 

bkviking ____________________ 30 ______ 07 ______ 05 _____ 04 _____ 46

Dunkman ___________________ 31 ______ 07 ______ 06 _____ 02 _____ 46

Roger Smith _________________ 30 ______ 07 ______ 05 _____ 03 _____ 45

U Thant ____________________ 27 ______ 06 ______ 05 _____ 03 _____ 41

Cyclogent __ (Jul start) _______ --- ______ 26 ______ 07 _____ 04 _____ 37 --max 85--

TropicalAnalystwx13 __________ 24 ______ 05 ______ 06 _____ 03 _____ 38

Ed Lizard ___________________ 23 ______ 05 ______ 05 _____ 03 _____ 36

Tropical Wx _________________ 23 ______ 05 ______ 03 _____ 02 _____ 33

Hurricaneman _______________ 23 ______ 05 ______ 03 _____ 02 _____ 33

My Weather Today ___________ 18 ______ 05 ______ 03 _____ 02 _____ 28

Southern Sniow ______________ 19 ______ 05 ______ 02 _____ 01 _____ 27

Jonathan Belles ______________ 19 ______ 05 ______ 02 _____ 01 _____ 27

hudsonvalley21 ______________ 17 ______ 04 ______ 02 _____ 01 _____ 24

Stebo ______________________ 04 ______ 01 ______ 01 _____ 02 _____ 08

Metallicwx366 _______________ 03 ______ 01 ______ 01 _____ 01 _____ 06

Yanks Fan __________________ 00 ______ 00 ______ 00 _____ 00 _____ 00

________________________________________________________________

 

Congrats to Free Man and PSUBlizzicane2007, CandymanCSG boulderr and icebreaker5221

 (and of course Normal 93 to 12).

 

Once these seasonal scores are finalized I will merge them with the monthly totals and the bonus points.

 

Looks as though Icebreaker5221 has the overall lead in the bag (well second to Normal anyway).  Wxmeddler could have a high finish and Chicago Storm did very well considering the penalty points or missing points for June.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Provisional final report on monthly forecast scores (contest totals)

 

Your June forecast was worth 8/100 of the monthly half of the contest.

Your July forecast was worth 15/100 of the monthly portion.

Your August forecast was worth 25/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 2,0,0.

Your September forecast was worth 30/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 4,2,0.

Your October forecast was worth 20/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 2,0,0.

Your Nov-Dec forecast was worth 2/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a Dec 3 count of 1,0,0, subject to any updates.

 

These are the scores:

 

FORECASTER ____________ JUN - JUL - AUG - SEP _ OCT _ N-D ___ Total

 

wxmeddler ______________ 7.4 _ 14.3 _ 15.9 _ 29.1 _ 19.1 _ 1.7 __ 87.5

Chicago Storm ___________ 0.0 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 29.2 _ 19.0 _ 2.0 __ 87.2

icebreaker5221 ___________ 7.6 _ 13.6 _ 18.0 _ 25.0 _ 18.6 _ 2.0 __ 84.8

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 6.7 _ 14.1 _ 18.3 _ 25.1 _ 18.9 _ 1.4 ___ 84.5

 

andyhb _________________7.0 _ 12.0 _ 15.7 _ 28.1 _ 18.6 _ 2.0 ___ 83.4

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 7.0 _ 13.5 _ 17.2 _ 26.1 _ 17.1 _ 2.0 __ 82.8

 

Inudaw ________________ 7.6 _ 12.9 _ 11.7 _ 27.9 _ 19.2 _ 2.0 ___ 81.3

Ed Lizard _______________ 7.6 _ 14.0 _ 13.8 _ 25.2 _ 18.0 _ 2.0 ___ 80.6

bkviking ________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 11.7 _ 26.7 _18.0 _ 2.0 ___ 80.4

CandymanColumbusGA ____7.9 _ 13.6 _ 14.7 _ 25.0 _ 17.1 _ 2.0 ___ 80.3

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 _ 27.0 _ 17.0 _ 2.0 ___ 80.0

Stebo __________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 13.0 _ 28.0 _17.0 _ 0.0 ___ 77.0

yoda ___________________6.1 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 _ 29.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 72.1

U Thant ________________ 8.0 __ 9.7 _ 14.3 _ 16.6 _ 19.0 _ 2.0 ___ 69.6

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 7.0 _ 27.0 _ 14.5 _ 0.0 ___ 68.5

Ellinwood _______________ 6.9 _ 13.3 _ 20.0 _ 28.2 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 68.4

Roger Smith _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 _ 21.0 _ 15.0 _ 0.0 ___ 67.0

wxmx __________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 _ 25.0 __ 5.0 _ 2.0 ___ 66.0

Hurricaneman ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 6.0 _ 23.0 _ 15.0 _ 1.0 ___ 66.0

superstorm93 ____________ 7.0 _ 13.0 _ 18.0 _ 27.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 65.0

cyclogent _______________ 0.0 _ 13.0 _ 15.0 _ 18.0 _ 18.0 _ 1.0 ___ 65.0

Metalicwx366 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 __ 6.0 _ 15.0 _ 15.0 _ 1.0 ___ 57.0

Free_Man _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 _ 18.0 __ 0.0 _ 12.8 _ 2.0 ___ 39.8

boulderr ________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 34.0

My Weather Today ________ 7.0 __ 8.5 _ 18.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 33.5

YanksFan27 _____________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 25.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 32.0

snowflake22 _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 31.0

Blizzardwarning __________ 0.0 _ 11.5 _ 15.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 26.5

Southern Snow___________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 22.0

Tropical Wx _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 21.0

JonathanBelles___________ 7.6 _ 12.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 20.2

Pluffmud _______________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0  ___ 20.0

J consor ______________________________________ 13.5 _ 2.0  = 15.5

Weatherkid#27 __________ 8.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 8.0

Dunkman _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ___ 7.0

hudsonvalley21___________6.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _ 0.0 ____ 6.6

___________________________________________________________________________

 

These scores would need to be revised if there are any further storms before Dec 31, otherwise this is the final report on monthly forecasts.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Final scores (combined seasonal and monthly) before bonus points

____________________________________________________________

 

 

Forecaster _________________ Seasonal _______ Monthly _________ TOTAL ____ bonus

 

 

Normal 1993 to 2012_______________ 75 ______________ 84.5 ____________ 159.5

 

icebreaker5221 ___________________ 67 ______________ 84.8 _____________ 151.8

CandymanColumbusGA _____________ 67 ______________ 80.3 ____________ 147.3 + 8 = 155.3

Chicago Storm* ___________________ 52 ______________ 87.2 ____________ 139.2 (157.2) + 1 = 140.2

PSU Blizzicane2007________________ 68 _______________ 68.5 ____________ 136.5 + 1 = 137.5

Wxmeddler ______________________ 48 _______________ 87.5 ____________ 135.5 + 5 = 140.5

yoda ___________________________ 63 _______________ 72.1 ____________ 135.1 + 1 = 136.1

andyhb _________________________ 50 _______________ 83.4 ____________ 133.4

 

Consensus _______________________ 47 ______________ 82.8 _____________ 129.8

 

Inudaw _________________________ 48 _______________ 81.3 ____________ 129.3

bkviking _________________________46 ______________ 80.4 _____________ 126.4 + 2 = 128.4

wxmx __________________________ 58 ______________ 66.0 _____________ 124.0

superstorm93 ____________________ 58 ______________ 65.0 _____________ 123.0

TropicalAnalystwx13 _______________ 38 ______________ 80.0 _____________ 118.0 + 3 = 121.0

Ed Lizard ________________________ 36 ______________ 80.6 _____________ 116.6 + 6 = 122.6

Ellinwood________________________ 48 _______________ 68.4 ____________ 116.4

Roger Smith ______________________45_______________ 67.0 _____________ 112.0

Free Man ________________________ 71_______________ 39.8 _____________ 110.8

U Thant _________________________ 41 ______________ 69.6 _____________ 110.6

Cyclogent* _______________________37 ______________ 65.0 _____________ 102.0 (115.3)

Boulderr _________________________67 ______________ 34.0 _____________ 101.0 + 7 = 108.0

 

Hurricaneman ____________________ 33 ______________ 66.0 ______________ 99.0 +1 = 100.0

Stebo ___________________________ 08 ______________ 77.0 ______________ 85.0

snowflake22 _____________________ 51 _______________ 31.0 _____________ 82.0

Pluffmud ________________________ 54 ______________ 20.0 ______________74.0

Metallicwx366 ____________________ 06 ______________ 57.0 ______________ 63.0

My Weather Today ________________ 28 ______________ 33.5 ______________ 61.5

Weatherkid#27 ___________________ 53 _______________8.0 ______________ 61.0 + 9 = 70.0

Tropical Wx ______________________ 33 ______________ 21.0 ______________ 54.0

Dunkman ________________________ 46 _______________ 7.0 ______________ 53.0 + 10 = 63.0

Southern Sniow ___________________ 27 ______________ 22.0 ______________ 49.0 + 1 = 50.0

Jonathan Belles ___________________ 27 ______________ 20.2 ______________ 47.2

Yanks Fan _______________________ 00 ______________ 32.0 ______________ 32.0

hudsonvalley21 ___________________ 24 _______________ 6.6 ______________ 30.6 + 4 = 34.6

 

 

* started July 1st and max scores possible are 85,92 ... scores in brackets show comparative scoring out of 200.

 

_______________________________________________________________

 

(Dec 4) I have adjusted this table to reflect the 10-pt bonus question about landfalling storms. For now, it's hearty congrats to Normal 1993-2012 (zero posts) and among us humans, Icebreaker5221 and CandymanColumbusGA leading the way (Candyman moves ahead on bonus points). Late starter Chicago Storm had an even better scoring rate per points available (before bonus added).

 

Normal 1893-1912 might have done even better than his modern counterpart.

 

In general, the better seasonal forecasts were not highly correlated with monthly scores especially when I factor in the tendency for low seasonal scorers to give up and stop forecasting monthly numbers earlier than those with good seasonal scores looming. But some of us just sucked in general (my hand is certainly up).

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Bonus scores for max landfalling storm

 

 

Rules stated that a 5% bonus (i.e., 10 points) would be given for forecasts of maximum landfalling storm in the U.S., on the basis of intensity, location and date (see rules in post 1 for details, dates were all way off so were scored by rank order). Ten forecasts would receive points from 10 down to 1. The max landfalling storm was a rather underwhelming 60-kt tropical storm (Andrea) on June 6 in n.w. Florida. On that basis, the error points were tabulated and points awarded as follows (ties broken first by intensity, all with 8 pts got a minimum of 1 bonus point):

 

Dunkman 4 ______ 10

Weatherkid 4 _____ 9

Candyman 5 _____ 8

boulderr 7 _______ 7

Ed Lizard 7 ______ 6

wxmeddler 8 _____ 5

hudsonvalley 8 ___ 4

tropwxan13 8 ____ 3

bkviking 8 _______ 2

PSUBlzz 8 _______ 1

Chicago Storm 8 __ 1

yoda 8 __________ 1

hurricaneman 8 ___ 1

Southern Snow 8 __ 1

 

snowflake 22 would have won this bonus had they not changed their forecast. Not giving a date or having a later than mid-Sep date was enough to move any forecast out of the bonus point range if any error in location, given the intensity errors which were all at least 2. These bonus points are incorporated into the previous post now, and barring any very late landfalling storms, this can be considered a final report.

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