2013 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- provisional contest results

[metalicwx366]

Ugh, August was a fail. I know I'm somewhere near the bottom. Oh well.

September 8/6/3.

Seasonal 16/8/4 from 20/12/4.

[hurricaneman]

September 6\3\2

seasonal: no change

[andyhb]

September: 4/2/1.5

 

Season changed to 13/4/2.5

[Ed Lizard]

I'm waiting four or five more days...

 

Needing 12 storms and 9 hurricanes, I may edit my season totals even lower.

[Stebo]

4/3/1 for Sept

 

Revision down to 14/7/3 for the year.

[yoda]

Revision downward to 14/6/2 for seasonal

 

4/2/1 for Sept

[Superstorm93]

I wanted to do this for July, but oh well.

 

Season: 14/5/2

 

Sept: 5/3/1

[Roger Smith]

August now at 2/0/0 thanks to the incredibly brief rampage of Fernand (El Scorebooster).

 

My September very optimistic guess is 6/4/2

 

Revise seasonal to 17/7/3

 

note to all entrants: okay to edit your forecasts up to 06z Sep 1 without notification as I start making up tables of entries after the deadline. Edit after deadline should not happen, instead post a new set of numbers, I will compare them to on-time entry and penalties will apply to either set if they change, but not to seasonal if that is not updated. My procedure is to verify all entries in table of entries around 5th or 6th after final deadline, any changes noted after that review could be late edits and will not be substituted into tables. Please check the September updated table around the 4th or 5th and verify your entries.

[IsentropicLift]

For September

 

5/3/2

[icebreaker5221]

September: 5/3/2

 

Season: 15/5/3

[wxmx]

Sep:

5/3/2

 

Season

15/6/3

[Ed Lizard]

Ed Lizard ____ (August) ___ 17 _____ 9 ____ 3 _______ 4.5 __ 2.8 __ 1.3 ________

 

September, 5.5 / 3 /1.5

 

Second seasonal revision 15 / 6 / 3

[Ellinwood]

If we can get the eastern Atlantic wave to get named before the end of the month I could see August ending up as 3/1/0... would allow at least the low guesses to save face

[metalicwx366]

Ugh, August was a fail. I know I'm somewhere near the bottom. Oh well.

September 8/6/3.

Seasonal 16/8/4 from 20/12/4.

September 6/5/3

Seasonal 16/8/4

[wxtrackercody]

I honestly don't know anymore, lol.

 

5-3-1, I guess.

[Ellinwood]

September: 4.5/2.5/1

Seasonal: 16/7/2.5 (changed)

[wxmeddler]

August: 4.4/2.4/.9

Season: 17.4/8.7/4.1 <-- changed

 

September: 4.1/1.7/.7

15/5.4/2.5 <--changed

[Inudaw]

September:   4.8/2.1/1.2
Season:  14.5/4.8/2 (Changed)

[bkviking]

September: 5.7/2/1

Season: 15/5/2.5 (changed--how could I not?)

[CandymanColumbusGA]

5/3/2 for Sept.

15.8/5.5/3.9 for season. CHANGED

[Roger Smith]

June-August scoring

_________________________

 

Your June forecast was worth 8/100 of the monthly half of the contest.

Your July forecast was worth 15/100 of the monthly portion.

Your August forecast was worth 25/100 of the monthly portion, and is based on a final count of 2,0,0.

 

These are the scores:

 

FORECASTER ____________ JUN - JUL - AUG ___ Total

 

yoda ___________________6.1 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 ___ 43.1

Ellinwood _______________ 6.9 _ 13.3 _ 20.0 ___ 40.2

icebreaker5221 __________ 7.6 _ 13.6 _ 18.0 ___ 39.2

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 6.7 _ 14.1 _ 18.3 ___ 39.1

 

superstorm93 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 _ 18.0 ___ 38.0

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 7.0 _ 13.5 _ 17.2 ___ 37.7

 

wxmeddler _____________ 7.4 _ 14.3 _ 15.9 ___ 37.6

Chicago Storm ___________ 0.0 _ 14.0 _ 23.0 ___ 37.0

CandymanColumbusGA ___  7.9 _ 13.6 _ 14.7 ___ 36.2

Ed Lizard _______________ 7.6 _ 14.0 _ 13.8 ___ 35.4

andyhb _________________7.0 _ 12.0 _ 15.7 ___ 34.7

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 ___ 34.0

wxmx __________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 12.0 ___ 34.0

boulderr ________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 15.0 ___ 34.0

bkviking ________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 11.7 ___ 33.7

My Weather Today ________ 7.0 __ 8.5 _ 18.0 ___ 33.5

Inudaw _________________ 7.6 _ 12.9 _ 11.7 ___ 32.2

Stebo __________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 _ 13.0 ___ 32.0

U Thant ________________ 8.0 __ 9.7 _ 14.3 ___ 32.0

Roger Smith _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 ___ 31.0

snowflake22 _____________7.0 _ 14.0 _ 10.0 ___ 31.0

cyclogent _______________ 0.0 _ 13.0 _ 15.0 ___ 28.0

Hurricaneman ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 6.0 ___ 27.0

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 7.0 _ 13.0 _ 7.0 ___ 27.0

Blizzardwarning __________ 0.0 _ 11.5 _ 15.0 ___ 26.5

Metalicwx366 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 __ 6.0 ___ 26.0

Free_Man _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 _ 18.0 ___ 25.0

Southern Snow___________ 8.0 _ 14.0 _ 0.0 ___ 22.0

Tropical Wx _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 __ 0.0 ___ 21.0

JonathanBelles___________ 7.6 _ 12.6 __ 0.0 ___ 20.2

Pluffmud _______________ 7.0 _ 13.0 __ 0.0 ___ 20.0

Weatherkid#27 __________ 8.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 8.0

Dunkman _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 7.0

YanksFan27 _____________ 7.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 7.0

hudsonvalley21___________6.6 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___  6.6

[PSUBlizzicane2007]

September:  5/3/1

 

Season:  15/5/2 (changed)

[Chicago Storm]

September: 4/1.5/0.5

 

Season: 13/4/2 (Changed)

[U_Thant]

SEP 6/4/3

Season: 16/8/5 (changed)

[thewxmann]

Here's my prediction for September based on 10-day Euro output: 1/0/0

[Roger Smith]

Thanks to the lack of named storms over the past two days and the rules as clarified, late entrants are only looking at a 19% late penalty at this hour and about 30% by Tuesday morning, and half those amounts applied to seasonal updates (which aren't worth that much anyhow) so get in there if you're late, you haven't dropped as many points as you might have thought. I will post a table of September updates and entries tomorrow. Scores for August can be found a few posts back.

[Roger Smith]

September forecasts and seasonal updates

______________________________________

 

 

FORECASTER ____________ SEASONAL FORECAST ____ SEPTEMBER FCST ______ MAX US LANDFALLING STORM

_________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

YanksFan27 _____________ 23 ____ 15 ____ 4 _______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 2 _________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10

 

Metalicwx366 __ (J,J,A) ___ 20 ____ 12 ____ 4 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10

Metalicwx366 ___ (S) _____ 16 _____ 8 ____ 4 _______ 6 ___ 5 ___ 3 __________

 

Stebo ____ (J,J,A) ________20 ____ 11 ____ 5 _______ already scored ___________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12

Stebo ______ (S) ________ 14 _____ 7 ____ 3 _______ 4 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___________

 

My Weather Today __(J,J)__ 19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ already scored __________ cat-5 .. sFL .. 09

My Weather Today (Aug) __ 19 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ already scored ___________

 

hudsonvalley21 __________19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06

 

JonathanBelles (-4% Jul) __ 19 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- ________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16

 

Ed Lizard ____ (J,J) ______ 18 ____ 11 ____3 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03

Ed Lizard ____ (August) ___ 17 ____ 9 ____ 3 _______ already scored ____________

Ed Lizard ____ (S) _______ 15 _____ 6 ___ 3 _______ 5.5 ___ 3 ___ 1.5 __________

 

TropicalAnalystwx13 _(J,J)__ 18 ___ 10 ____ 4 _______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05

Tropical ___ (August/Sept) _ 16 ____ 9 ____ 3 _______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 __ (August scored)

 

Dunkman ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14

 

Ellinwood _____ (J,J,A) ___18 _____ 9 ____ 3.5 ______ already scored _________

Ellinwood ______ (S) ____ 16 _____ 7 ____ 2.5 ______ 4.5 __ 2.5 __ 1.0 _________ 

 

Weatherkid#27 _________ 18 _____ 8 ____ 4 ________ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27

 

Pluffmud ______________ 18 _____ 7 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late

 

Inudaw _____ (J,J,A) ___ 17.8 ____ 9.5 __ 4.2 _____ already scored  ____________

Inudaw _______ (S) ____ 14.5 ____ 4.8 ___ 2.0 _____ 4.8 ___ 2.1 ___ 1.2 _______

 

U Thant ____ (J,J) _______ 17.5 ___ 10.5 __ 6.5 _____ already scored _________ cat-3 sw FL no date (added 6-21)

U Thant ____ (August) ____ 17 ____ 10 ___ 5.5 ______ already scored ___________

U Thant _(-8%) _ (S) _____ 16 _____ 8 ___ 5 ________ 6 ___ 4 ___ 3 ___________

 

wxmeddler ___(June,July) _ 17.4 ____ 9.8 __ 4.4 ______already scored ___________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02

wxmeddler ____(Aug) ____ 17.4 ____ 8.7 __ 4.1 ______ already scored ___________

wxmeddler ____ (S) ______ 15.0 ____ 5.4 __ 2.5 _____ 4.1 __ 1.7 __ 0.7 _________

 

 

CONSENSUS ____ (Jun) ___ 17.2 ___ 9.7 ___ 4 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09--08

CONSENSUS ____ (Jul) ___ 17.1 ___ 9.7 ___ 4 _______ already scored __________

CONSENSUS ____ (Aug) __ 17.0 ___ 9.5 ___ 4 _______ already scored __________ 

CONSENSUS _____ (S) ___ 15.5 ___ 7.5 ___ 3.5 ______ 5.0 __ 3.0 __ 1.5 _________ 

 

 

Tropical Wx _____________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________

 

Hurricaneman ___________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ 6 ___ 3 ___ 2 _________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22 xxx

 

bkviking _____ (J,J,A) ____ 17 ____ 10 ____ 4 ______ already scored ___________ cat-3 ... nw FL

bkviking _______ (S) _____ 15 _____ 5 ___ 2.5 ______ 5.7 __ 2 ___1

 

Roger Smith __ (J,J,A) ___ 17 ____ 10 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18

Roger Smith _____ (S) ___ 17 _____ 7 _____ 3 _______6 ___ 4 ___ 2 _________

 

andyhb ______ (J,J) _____ 17 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24

andyhb ____ (August) ____ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________

andyhb ______ (S) ______ 13 _____ 4 ____ 2.5 _______ 4 ___ 2 __ 1.5 ________

 

 

wxmx ____ (J,J,A) _______ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-4 .. s TX

wxmx _____ (S) _________ 15 _____ 6 _____ 3 ______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________

 

Chicago Storm (JUL entry) __ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. StP FL 8-23 (6-30)

Chicago Storm (Aug) ______ 16 ____ 7 _____ 3 ______ already scored  __________

Chicago Storm (S) ________ 13 _____ 4 _____ 2 ______ 4 ___ 1.5 __ 0.5 ________

 

yoda ______  (J,J,A) ______ 17 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16

yoda _______ (S) ________ 14 _____ 6 _____ 2 ______ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 _________

 

CandymanColumbusGA ____ 16.8 ____ 7.4 ___ 3.1 _____ already scored _________ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20

CandymanColumbusGA _(S)_15.8 ____ 5.5 ___ 3.9 _____ 5 ____ 3 ___ 2

 

snowflake22 ___June ______ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ J,J scored already_______ cat-2 .. seTX .. 07-25

snowflake22 ___July, Aug___ 16 _____10 _____ 5 ______ scored already _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-20 (6-22)

snowflake22 ___ Sep ______ (16) ___ (10) ___ (5) _____ -- __ -- __ -- ___________

 

superstorm93 __(June,July) _ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29

superstorm93 ___ (August) _ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ already scored __________

superstorm93 ___ (S) _____ 14 _____ 5 _____ 2 _______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 __________

 

icebreaker5221 __ (J,J,A) __ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____already scored _________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03

icebreaker5221 ___ (S) ____15 _____ 5 _____ 3 ______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 2 ________

 

boulderr ________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31

 

PSUBlizzicane2007 _ (J,J,A)  16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20

PSUBlizzicane2007 __ (S) __ 15 _____ 5 _____ 2 ______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 _________

 

Southern Snow ___________ 15 ____ 11 _____ 5 ______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14

 

Cyclogent (new entry) _____ 15 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ 6 ___ 4 ___ 3 __________ cat-3 GA Sep 13 (6-22)

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 14.5 ___ 7.6 ____ 3.4 _____ 5.2 __ 3.3 __ 1.6 ________

 

Free_Man ___ (June,July) __ 13 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____already scored_ _________ cat-2 .. c TX ..

Free_Man ___ (Aug,Sep) ____ 15 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ -- ___ -- ____ -- _________

 

Blizzard Warning _____________ no seasonal fcst yet ____ -- ___ -- ___ -- ___

_____________________________________________________________________________

 

September seasonal consensus is based on all forecasts including non-updated. The consensus of updated forecasts is 15, 6, 3.

 

If you have been active in the contest and missed September, penalties are relaxed, at the moment you're looking at about 40% -- looks to me as though almost all regular players have updated so, next stop is the October and Nov-Dec forecasts due October 1st.

[Roger Smith]

Well I think we're at 3/1/0 (and 9/1/0 seasonal) but keep an eye on my counts because I'm away from home and not on line very often this month.

 

I also see that official forecasts place the count at 3/2/0 in a few days. So this gives a bit of hope to some of us perhaps.

 

What would you say is the max landfall in US so far? I have a foggy recollection of a TS landfall earlier. That category may end up with some bizarro answer like cat-1 northwest FL December 1st. I've been searching in vain for sure signs of my e-NC cat-3 end of next week, unless Humberto wants to go nuts.

[Ed Lizard]

May not be any majors to confuse the scoring.

[Roger Smith]

I think it is safe to say that we are all getting our asses kicked by Normal and he's getting his kicked by Normal 1851-1880 or something similar. Oh well ...

 

If you would care to endure one final round of ritual humiliation, all that is now left to do in this somewhat revised format is to predict the October storm count and make a second prediction for the combined Nov-Dec season-ending additional count.

 

Under the rules in this contest, you don't have another chance to update your seasonal forecast, that last chance expired with September's update.

 

So just post something in this format, which happens to be my current idea for Oct and Nov-Dec:

 

OCT 3,2,1

 

NOV-DEC 1,1,1

 

The October portion is worth 20 points and the Nov-Dec part is all of 2 points if you're right.

 

Good luck, thanks for playing, and look for some updated scoring soon after September ends (sitting at 3,2,0 ... I think). I will post some preliminary seasonal scoring by early November with conditional scores available for hypothetical increases to follow that late date in the season.

 

The deadline for these final forecasts of the contest will be 06z October 1st, with full penalty mode in force as that's a Tuesday.