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2013 North Atlantic tropical season contest -- provisional contest results

Roger Smith

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Ed Lizard

Ed Lizard

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August  5/ 3 / 1.5

 

Slight downward revision on NS and H for the season.

17/9/3

 

 

 

EDITED ON JULY 29

 

Based on lack of apparent activity based on long range models first part of August, a small tweak downward on August totals.    The 17/9/3 seasonal revision is unrevised.

 

 

4.5 / 2.75 / 1.25

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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June-July provisional scoring

_________________________

 

Your June forecast was worth 8/100 of the monthly half of the contest.

Your July forecast, provisionally scored on (2,0,0) will be worth 15/100 of the monthly portion. These provisional scores will be edited if the count changes (Dorian is being watched for redevelopment plus any last minute arrivals).

 

These are the scores:

 

FORECASTER ____________ JUN - JUL ___ Total

 

Southern Snow___________ 8.0 _ 14.0 ___ 22.0

TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 8.0 _ 14.0 ___ 22.0

wxmx __________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 ___ 22.0

bkviking ________________ 8.0 _ 14.0 ___ 22.0

wxmeddler ______________ 7.4 _ 14.3 ___ 21.7

Ed Lizard _______________ 7.6 _ 14.0 ___ 21.6

CandymanColumbusGA ____7.9 _ 13.6 ___ 21.5

icebreaker5221 __________ 7.6 _ 13.6 ___ 21.2

Tropical Wx _____________ 7.0 _ 14.0 ___ 21.0

Hurricaneman ___________ 7.0 _ 14.0 ___ 21.0

Roger Smith _____________7.0 _ 14.0 ___ 21.0

snowflake22 _____________7.0 _ 14.0 ___ 21.0

 

NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 6.7 _ 14.1 ____ 20.8

 

Inudaw ________________ 7.6 _ 12.9 ___ 20.5

 

CONSENSUS ____________ 7.0 _ 13.5 ___ 20.5

 

Ellinwood _______________ 6.9 _ 13.3 ___ 20.2

JonathanBelles___________ 7.6 _ 12.6 ___ 20.2

yoda ___________________6.1 _ 14.0 ___ 20.1

Pluffmud _______________ 7.0 _ 13.0 ___ 20.0

Metalicwx366 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 ___ 20.0

superstorm93 ____________7.0 _ 13.0 ___ 20.0

PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 7.0 _ 13.0 ___ 20.0

boulderr ________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 ___ 19.0

Stebo __________________ 8.0 _ 11.0 ___ 19.0

andyhb _________________7.0 _ 12.0 ___ 19.0

U Thant ________________ 8.0 __ 9.7 ___ 17.7

My Weather Today _______ 7.0 __ 8.5 ___ 15.5

Chicago Storm ___________ 0.0 _ 14.0 ___ 14.0

cyclogent _______________ 0.0 _ 13.0 ___ 13.0

Blizzardwarning __________ 0.0 _ 11.5 ___ 11.5

Weatherkid#27 __________ 8.0 __ 0.0 ____ 8.0

Dunkman _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 ____ 7.0

YanksFan27 _____________ 7.0 __ 0.0 ____ 7.0

Free_Man _______________ 7.0 __ 0.0 ____ 7.0

hudsonvalley21___________6.6 __ 0.0 ____ 6.6

 

_______________________________________________________

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Please note: updated scoring in post #94 which was provisional is now final through July.

 

A table of your August entries and any seasonal updates will appear on Friday 2nd, I hope. Today (meaning Thursday) is a travel day for me as I go on a semi-vacation (taking a holiday from the semi-vacation I have at my place). The things that change most are better scenery, cheaper beer and less internet time. All of these are good, I suppose.

 

Penalties of the most draconian sort begin at 06z so hurry in with your August forecast and seasonal update.

 

Can 2013 produce a hurricane? We will find out, sooner or later. The count is 4/0/0 ... futility holds serve.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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August forecasts, updates


 


This table continues on with your most recent input, July forecasts not updated with August forecasts are scored already (see above, post 94, in the thread) and this table shows your August forecast, any seasonal updates made in July or August, and notes that you have no August forecast entered where applicable.


 


FORECASTER ____________ SEASONAL FORECAST _____ AUGUST FCST ________ MAX US LANDFALLING STORM


 


 


YanksFan27 _____________ 23 ____ 15 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10


 


Metalicwx366 ____________ 20 ____ 12 ____ 4 _______ 5 ___ 4 ___ 2 _________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10 


 


Stebo __________________ 20 ____ 11 ____ 5 _______ 5 ___ 2 ___ 2 _________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12 


 


My Weather Today __(J,J)__ 19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ already scored __________ cat-5 .. sFL .. 09


My Weather Today (Aug) __ 19 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___________


 


hudsonvalley21 __________19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06


 


JonathanBelles (-4% Jul) __ 19 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ -- ____ -- ___ -- ________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16


 


Ed Lizard ____ (J,J) ______ 18 ____ 11 ____ 3 _______ already scored __________ cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03


Ed Lizard ____ (August) ___ 17 _____ 9 ____ 3 _______ 4.5 __ 2.8 __ 1.3 ________


 


TropicalAnalystwx13 _(J,J)__ 18 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ already scored  _________ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05


Tropical ___ (August) _____ 16 _____ 9 ____ 3 _______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 __________


 


Dunkman ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14


 


Ellinwood ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 3.5 ______ 3.7 __ 1.7 __ 0.5 _________ 


 


Weatherkid#27 _________ 18 _____ 8 ____ 4 ________ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27


 


Pluffmud _______________ 18 _____ 7 ____ 4 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- __________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late


 


Inudaw ________________ 17.8 ____ 9.5 __ 4.2 _____ 5.2 __ 2.8 ___ 1.2  _________ 


 


U Thant ____ (J,J) _______ 17.5 ___ 10.5 __ 6.5 _____  already scored _________ cat-3 sw FL no date (added 6-21)


U Thant ____ (August) ____ 17 ____ 10 ___ 5.5 ______ 4.5 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 _________


 


wxmeddler ___(June,July) _ 17.4 ____ 9.8 __ 4.4 ______already scored ___________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02


wxmeddler ____(Aug) ____ 17.4 ____ 8.7 __ 4.1 ______ 4.4 __2.4 _ 0.9 _________


 


 


CONSENSUS ____________ 17.0 ___ 9.5 ___ 4 _______ 4.1 __ 2.2 __ 1 __________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09--08


 


 


Tropical Wx _____________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________


 


Hurricaneman ___________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ 6 ___ 3 ___ 2 _________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22 


 


bkviking ________________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 4 ______ 4.5 __ 3.5 __ 1 _________ cat-3 ... nw FL 


 


Roger Smith _____________ 17 ____ 10 _____ 4 ______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 2 _________ cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18 


 


andyhb _________________ 17 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24


andyhb ____ (August) _____ 16 _____ 7 _____ 4 ______ 4 __ 2.5 __ 1.5 _________


 


wxmx __________________ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 1 _________ cat-4 .. s TX 


 


Chicago Storm (JUL entry) __ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ cat-3 .. StP FL 8-23 (6-30)


Chicago Storm (Aug) _______ 16 ____ 7 _____ 3 ______ 3 ____ 1 ___ 0 _________


 


yoda ___________________ 17 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 3 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16


 


CandymanColumbusGA ____ 16.8 ____ 7.4 ___ 3.1 _____ 4.2 __ 2.9 __ 1.1 ______ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20 


 


snowflake22 ___June ______ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ J,J scored already_______ cat-2 .. seTX .. 07-25


snowflake22 ___July, Aug___ 16 _____10 _____ 5 ______ 5 ___ 3 ___ 2 _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-20 (6-22)


 


superstorm93 __(June,July) _ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ already scored _________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29 


superstorm93 ___ (August) _ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 __________


 


icebreaker5221 __________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ 4 ___ 2 ___ 1 _________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03 


 


boulderr ________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 4 ___ 3 ___ 1 _________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31 


 


PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 6 ___ 3 ___ 1 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20 


 


Southern Snow ___________ 15 ____ 11 _____ 5 ______ -- ___ -- ___ -- _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14


 


Cyclogent (new entry) _____ 15 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ 4 ___ 3 ___ 1 __________ cat-3 GA Sep 13 (6-22)


 


NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 14.5 ___ 7.6 ____ 3.4 _____ 3.7 __ 2.1 __ 1.1 ________


 


Free_Man ___ (June,July) __ 13 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____already scored_ _________ cat-2 .. c TX ..


Free_Man ___ (August) ____ 15 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ 4 ___ 2 ____ 1 _________


 


Blizzard Warning _____________ no seasonal fcst yet ____ 5 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 


_____________________________________________________________________________


 


not shown in this table, Consensus has been falling gradually but by about 0.2 per category ... the values shown are current seasonal and August


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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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August is worth 25 points ... Cheer up gang, rule 6 (minimum scoring) guarantees that there will be scores of 20, 17.5, 15, 12.5, 10, 8.8, 7.5, 6.3, 5.0, 3.8, 2.5 and 1.3 if the top twelve scores don't reach that high (normal and consensus will not count in this adjustment, but will get the same scores as if they did count) ... if some do, then reduce the progression by 0.8. The best score from forecasts for a zero month would be those of Chicago Storm and Yoda at (3,1,0) which would score 18 naturally but 18.8 on adjustment (average of 20 and 17.5), the best for 1,0,0 same forecasts would score 21 dropping the third position to 14.2 if that didn't beat said score naturally (will work this out later if I need to)  and the best available score for a 1,1,0 month is currently the same duo scoring 22.0. An outcome of 2,1,0 probably won't require much scoring adjustment and the max score for that is currently 24.0.

 

Maybe the pace will pick up soon, but nothing in 12 days makes me think 3,2,1 would be about as high as we could hope to see. However, do the names Andrew and Camille mean anything around here? A quiet start to August is no big deal in tropical season outcomes.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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For later reference, this is the table of maximum landfalls arranged by dates. This is a bomus question and a few entrants did not make a forecast. Undated predictions are at the end -- these can only score by intensity and location. Those with just a month are placed as per the rules on middle date of month. One prediction of "late Aug" was assigned the date 08-29. Approximate dates are subject to 2 lower ranking points after being fixed on actual dates.

 

 

Southern Snow ____________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14

CandymanColumbusGA _____ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20  

PSUBlizzicane2007 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20

snowflake22 ______________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-20

Hurricaneman _____________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22

Chicago Storm (JUL entry) ___ cat-3 .. StP FL 8-23

andyhb __________________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24

Weatherkid#27 ___________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27

superstorm93 _____________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29

Pluffmud ________________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late .. 08-29 will be assigned

boulderr _________________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31

wxmeddler _______________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02

Ed Lizard _______________  cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03

TropicalAnalystwx13 _______ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05

hudsonvalley21 ___________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06

 

CONSENSUS ______________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-08

 

YanksFan27 _____________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10

Metalicwx366 _____________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10

Stebo ___________________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12

Cyclogent ________________ cat-3 GA .... 09-13

Dunkman ________________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14

My Weather Today ________ cat-5 .. sFL then LA .. 09 (-15 no actual date)

JonathanBelles ____________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16

yoda _____________________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16

Roger Smith _______________cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18

icebreaker5221 ____________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03

 

Free_Man ________________ cat-2 .. c TX .. no date

U Thant __________________cat-3 sw FL no date

bkviking __________________ cat-3 ... nw FL no date

wxmx ____________________ cat-4 .. s TX no date

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icebreaker5221

icebreaker5221

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For later reference, this is the table of maximum landfalls arranged by dates. This is a bomus question and a few entrants did not make a forecast. Undated predictions are at the end -- these can only score by intensity and location. Those with just a month are placed as per the rules on middle date of month. One prediction of "late Aug" was assigned the date 08-29. Approximate dates are subject to 2 lower ranking points after being fixed on actual dates.

 

 

Southern Snow ____________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14

CandymanColumbusGA _____ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20  

PSUBlizzicane2007 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20

snowflake22 ______________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-20

Hurricaneman _____________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22

Chicago Storm (JUL entry) ___ cat-3 .. StP FL 8-23

andyhb __________________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24

Weatherkid#27 ___________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27

superstorm93 _____________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29

Pluffmud ________________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late .. 08-29 will be assigned

boulderr _________________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31

wxmeddler _______________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02

Ed Lizard _______________  cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03

TropicalAnalystwx13 _______ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05

hudsonvalley21 ___________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06

 

CONSENSUS ______________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-08

 

YanksFan27 _____________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10

Metalicwx366 _____________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10

Stebo ___________________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12

Cyclogent ________________ cat-3 GA .... 09-13

Dunkman ________________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14

My Weather Today ________ cat-5 .. sFL then LA .. 09 (-15 no actual date)

JonathanBelles ____________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16

yoda _____________________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16

Roger Smith _______________cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18

icebreaker5221 ____________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03

 

Free_Man ________________ cat-2 .. c TX .. no date

U Thant __________________cat-3 sw FL no date

bkviking __________________ cat-3 ... nw FL no date

wxmx ____________________ cat-4 .. s TX no date

 

Interesting that I'm the only one that went with Oct.  I don't think that many realize that S. FL has actually had more hurricane landfalls in Oct than Sep.  Not as many Cat 4/5s, but many more Cat 1's, 2's and 3's.  Admittedly we've only had one since 2000 (Wilma 05) so they may not be fresh in people's minds. 

 

Sep. S FL hurricanes (since 1900):

post-378-0-55306800-1377013061_thumb.jpg

 

Oct. S FL hurricanes (since 1900):

post-378-0-91576100-1377013069_thumb.jpg

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Ed, maybe you were kidding, but for the record, the table entries for August that say -- -- -- are missed (as in not made) forecasts and count zero scoring points, if somebody had predicted no storms the entries would read 0,0,0 which right now would be scoring 24/25.

 

---------------

 

(quote Icebreaker5221 ... "Interesting that I'm the only one that went with Oct. I don't think that many realize that S. FL has actually had more hurricane landfalls in Oct than Sep. Not as many Cat 4/5s, but many more Cat 1's, 2's and 3's. Admittedly we've only had one since 2000 (Wilma 05) so they may not be fresh in people's minds.")

 

I noticed that also when I posted, also that nobody went for a date in late September. Thinking back over the relatively recent years, there was Hugo on Sept 22 (1989) and my memory fails me somewhat on the Is-bel storm that hit Chesapeake Bay in 2003 in later September, I think, how about Gloria (1985) which may have been bettered in November in the Gulf (Keith? ... again memory is hazy on details of that), also Hazel in 1954 Oct 14-15, and probably quite a few other late season heavyweights that you folks might recall better than me.

 

Also with last year's experience with Sandy (which I suppose we would be debating endlessly in the context of this bonus question but technically not the strongest US landfall although it would be hard to convinced fifty million people in the northeast of that) it is surprising perhaps that nobody predicted a max landfall anywhere north of my mid-range guess of eastern NC. There seemed to be a lot of buzz around Florida this year and perhaps that will be justified before we're done. By my count, 19 of 27 forecasts mention Florida as either landfall or first of two and almost all the rest are in the TX-LA portion of the Gulf. Stebo's forecast (AL) is a redux of Frederic (1979) by date and intensity. That makes sense to me in this pattern. I'm stuck with my guess now but would probably say central Gulf coast more likely from current pattern, although my date was based on a bit of research guidance and if that more or less verifies then e NC would be favoured around that time, earlier would favour the Gulf to western Florida. Eastern FL seems to be protected by the mighty SAL and its far-reaching influences.

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Roger Smith

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Okay, turn your eyes away from that trainwreck and get ready for the next adventure, the September forecast (worth 30% of the monthly points) and seasonal update (if you started in June, worth 10 per cent of the seasonal points, see rules if you started in July or August).

 

Post your monthly storm numbers and if you wish to amend (and who doesn't?) a revised seasonal forecast. Reminder, this year, no October first seasonal updates, this is the last chance saloon to repair your seasonal forecast.

 

Deadline for no penalty points is 06z Sunday September 1st. Realizing that this falls mid-way through Labor Day weekend, the penalty situation for late entries, as previously announced, will be dependent on the situation with new storms at that time. Here's what will happen (as per the rules) ...

 

Because this is the heart of the hurricane season, a large (75% reduction) penalty reduction (as granted in July) would be inappropriate to this contest. If there are no new named storms between Aug 31 06z and Sep 3 06z there will be half-scale penalty points for late entries to 06z Sep 3 (meaning 1% every 2h late), followed by normal on 3rd to 06z 4th (meaning 1% per hour late), and twice normal rest of 4th (meaning 1% every 30 min late) to 06z then normal again to the normal expiry time at 10z 5th. At whatever point in time a named storm is declared in that reduced penalty time window 06z Aug 31 to Sep 3, even if it falls on August 31, penalties will then revert to normal (which is 1% per hour late after 06z Sept 1) and the catch-up on the 4th adjusted as necessary. This is to protect contestants who have entered in late August, and left for the weekend without the same information available to later entrants.

 

 

Sorry if this becomes a bit confusing, the situation will be clarified during the weekend period as indicated. In any case, you're probably wise to enter before the weekend if you're planning to be away, even the more lenient penalties that await you on Tuesday 3rd given a quiet period could be worse than the uncertainty factor from the earlier time. If it gets active, then you're more or less done for this 30% of the points by late 3rd.

 

So it's all up to you ... and in my case, I'm waiting until the 31st because I want to see if August delivers anything and I suspect there could be two on the go just as we hit that boundary which is -- I remind everyone -- all going to count for August no matter how late into September these named storms (named before 00z Sep 1) develop further. If a storm has a number on August 31 but only a name by Sep 1, that all counts for September. Just to clarify, I go with what the NHC reports and if they change classification during the season after the fact, you're protected on assumptions made, example, let's say that a storm comes and goes later this month so we're at 6/0/0 ... and you revise your seasonal to 13/5/2. But later, the NHC reclassifies this (probably imaginary) storm as a cat-1 hurricane for part of one day in August, some time in October. So really you were working off 6/1/0 and didn't know that. In that case, I will be scoring your forecast as better of 13/5/2 and 13/6/2 to protect your forecast. But, if let's say you go 13/5/2 and they do the same thing to an October storm, then you're not protected because the change does not influence your forecast assumptions.

 

Also, as I announced at start of the contest, I will score it rapidly after season ends, but if there's a later revision in 2014, I will post a revised table. You can decide which one's official in your own mind.

 

Another reminder of a slight change in procedure this year, as well as no October 1 seasonal update, you'll be asked to provide an October and Nov-Dec monthly (and 2-monthly) forecast by October 1 and that will end the contest input period. No forecast will be required or scored from Nov 1.

 

I will post these reminders again at contest time in late September.

 

Good luck because this is where the trainwreck either gets fixed or spread out all over the place. :)

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