wxmeddler Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Season: 17.4/9.8/4.4 June: 1.4/.1/0 Worst: Cat 3. Western LA, September 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 June: 1.5/0/0 Season: 16/8/3.5 Worst: Cat 2, southwest FL peninsula, Oct 3 It would be fun to do a map of everyone's worst landfall to check out the overall distribution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Here is a map of the landfall location predictions so far. https://docs.google.com/a/sound-connect.com/drawings/d/1lvYgyb5Hd_hYN1n7ajChot-1WDhP8ztBBknh7xngVjE/edit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 3, 2013 Share Posted June 3, 2013 Here is a map of the landfall location predictions so far. https://docs.google.com/a/sound-connect.com/drawings/d/1lvYgyb5Hd_hYN1n7ajChot-1WDhP8ztBBknh7xngVjE/edit Nice one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 Thanks for the map, that's cool. When I post the entries, I'll have "normal" and "consensus" as players, but for normal, with the increasing ability to detect storms, I am thinking maybe something like 14/8/3 is the new normal, the numbers I see in long-term studies seem too low to be truly "normal" in today's technology environment. For monthly normals I would go with scaled fractions of that annual adjusted value. Anyway, we all know that normal will finish dead last, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 Thanks for the map, that's cool. When I post the entries, I'll have "normal" and "consensus" as players, but for normal, with the increasing ability to detect storms, I am thinking maybe something like 14/8/3 is the new normal, the numbers I see in long-term studies seem too low to be truly "normal" in today's technology environment. For monthly normals I would go with scaled fractions of that annual adjusted value. Anyway, we all know that normal will finish dead last, right? Yeah I agree, so many storms are classified in today's age that would have not been known of 50-60 yrs ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JonathanBelles Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 seasonal: 19/10/4 Month: 2/0.5/0 east coast of FL, cat 3, September 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 4, 2013 Author Share Posted June 4, 2013 Seasonal and June Forecasts, most significant landfall _________________________________________________ Forecasts are posted by storms expected. FORECASTER ____________ SEASONAL FORECAST _____ JUNE FCST ___________ MAX US LANDFALLING STORM YanksFan27 _____________ 23 ____ 15 ____ 4 _______ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ 135 kt .. FLLseFL .. 09-10 Metalicwx366 ____________ 20 ____ 12 ____ 4 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. TX .. .. 09-10 Stebo __________________ 20 ____ 11 ____ 5 _______ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. AL ..... 09-12 My Weather Today _______ 19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ 2 ____ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-5 .. sFL .. 09 hudsonvalley21*__________19 ____ 10 ____ 5 _______ 1 ____ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. wFL(TPA) .. 09-06 JonathanBelles___________ 19 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ 2 ___ 0.5 __ 0 ________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-16 Ed Lizard _______________ 18 ____ 11 ____ 3 _______ 1.5 __ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. swFL .. 09-03 TropicalAnalystwx13 ______ 18 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e FL ... 09-05 Dunkman ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 4 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __________ cat-2 .. nwFL .. 09-14 Ellinwood ______________ 18 _____ 9 ____ 3.5 ______ 1 ___ 0.2 __ 0 _________ Weatherkid#27 _________ 18 _____ 8 ____ 4 ________ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. PNM nwFL .. 08-27 Pluffmud _______________ 18 _____ 7 ____ 4 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 __________ cat-3 .. ILM-NC .. 08-late Inudaw ________________ 17.8 ____ 9.5 __ 4.2 _____ 1.5 __ 0 ___ 0 _________ U Thant ________________ 17.5 ___ 10.5 __ 6.5 _____ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 __________ wxmeddler _____________ 17.4 ____ 9.8 __ 4.4 ______1.4 __ 0.1 __ 0 _________ cat-3 .. w LA .. 09-02 CONSENSUS ____________ 17.2 ___ 9.7 ___ 4 ________ 1 ___ 0 __ 0 __________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 09-08 Tropical Wx _____________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ Hurricaneman ___________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 6 _______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. PBI-FL .. 08-22 bkviking ________________ 17 ____ 10 ____ 4 _______ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 ... nw FL .. Roger Smith _____________ 17 ____ 10 _____ 4 ______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e NC .. 09-18 andyhb _________________ 17 _____ 9 _____ 5 ______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-24 wxmx __________________ 17 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. s TX yoda ___________________ 17 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 0.5 __ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. se TX .. 09-16 CandymanColumbusGA ____ 16.8 ____ 7.4 ___ 3.1 _____ 2.1 __ 0 ___ 0 ________ cat-3 .. PNS-FL .. 08-20 snowflake22 _____________ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-2 .. seTX .. 07-25 superstorm93 ____________ 16 _____ 9 _____ 4 ______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ 125kt .. e FL .. 08-29 icebreaker5221 __________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ 1.5 __ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-2 .. sw FL .. 10-03 boulderr ________________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-2 .. w LA .. 08-31 PSUBlizzicane2007 ________ 16 _____ 8 _____ 3 ______ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-3 .. e FL .. 08-20 Southern Snow ___________ 15 ____ 11 _____ 5 ______ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 _________ cat-4 .. seFL .. 08-14 NORMAL '93 to '12 _______ 14.5 ___ 7.6 ____ 3.4 _____ 0.9 __ 0.1 __ 0 ________ Free_Man _______________ 13 _____ 8 _____ 3.5 _____ 2 ___ 1 ___ 0 _________ cat-2 .. c TX .. _____________________________________________________________________________________ * 6% penalty applies to June score CONSENSUS (for 30 forecasts received, not counting NORMAL) is based on median so therefore average value of 15th and 16th ranked forecasts. The consensus for landfall is subjective based on frequency. NORMAL '93 to '12 is the average of the past 20 seasons, a compromise between longer term but lower averages, and the "modern warm Atlantic period" from '95 to '12 which had a slightly higher average. The monthly averages will be based on a longer-term normal distribution but based on the normal seasonal values used. Any additional forecasts will be added to the table, consensus adjusted, and all current entrants are welcome to add information where needed to their max-landfall forecast (some lack dates, some entrants could add one altogether if they wish). Penalties now apply to June forecasts but until 8th at 10z not to seasonal forecasts. After that forecasts cannot be submitted until late June, with a July monthly forecast. Please note, I plan to use this thread for the whole contest, so just look for this same thread in late June to post your updates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hudsonvalley21 Posted June 4, 2013 Share Posted June 4, 2013 19/10/5 June 1/0/0 Most significant: Cat. 3, 115mph, west FL, near Tampa, September 6th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 11, 2013 Author Share Posted June 11, 2013 So, we now sit at 1/0/0 and wait for further developments. I have updated the contest rules listed in post #1. The only minor change that I made to those was to add one level to the "minimum progression" or mercy rule that protects the field from unusually low scores by normal scoring methods. These levels are now 80, 70, 60 per cent and so on (see the post for the details). The main detail to keep in mind for your future enjoyment of the contest is that all forecasts and scoring will be posted in this thread. There won't be new threads opening up for different months. If you have holidays and want to post well in advance rather than missing out, you can post any monthly forecasts and seasonal updates you want to post, at any time convenient. Otherwise, the only thing I plan to do differently from what you are used to doing is rather minor, when it comes time to post October forecasts, you'll have to gaze further into the future and add a separate forecast for "Nov-Dec" (it's only worth 2%) and note also that your last seasonal update will be made with the September monthly forecast. We won't require an October seasonal update. Anyway, June is worth 8 points out of a contest total of 200 (and a monthly total of 100) so at this moment, everyone who predicted 1/0/0 stands to hit the ground running with 8 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 2-0-0. Schweeeeeet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 19, 2013 Share Posted June 19, 2013 Ugh, good thing June doesn't count that much. Only 8 points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 21, 2013 Author Share Posted June 21, 2013 Just a reminder, please place your seasonal update and July monthly forecasts in this thread when you're ready to share. No seasonal forecast means an unchanged from June 1st seasonal forecast, if that's the case, don't worry about posting it. As that is the case for me, my July forecast (which like yourselves I can edit up to July 1st 06z) is 2/1/0. Penalties apply after 06z Monday July 1st. New entrants are welcome, check the rules in post #1 to see how it applies to your seasonal forecast participation. You have basically lost 23/200 points by missing June if the rest of your participation is 100% accurate. ( 8 monthly +15 seasonal). That would probably mean a win, so don't feel discouraged about a late entry (to the seasonal part). For registered participants, you'll have easily figured out that 2/0/0 is worth 8 at this moment, 1/0/0 is worth 7 and so is 2/1/0. If you said 2/0/1 then you don't get the concept or you're sneaky smart. If you said 1.5/0.1/0 then I will need a supercomputer to work out your score but it's higher than most. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxtrackercody Posted June 21, 2013 Share Posted June 21, 2013 3-1-0 for July here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 July: 3/1/1 Season: 17/9/5 (unchanged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hurricaneman Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 July 1\0\0 I'm changing this due to the TUTT conditions but wouldn't rule out something forming from a frontal boundary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 July: 3/1/0 Sent from my HTCEVOV4G using Xparent BlueTapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 July: 3.0/1.0/0.0 Season: Unchanged Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
U_Thant Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 July 3 / 1.5 / 0.5 Season 17.5 / 10.5 / 6.5 (unchanged) Max US Landfalling storm Cat 3 SW FL coast (KFMY give or take) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclogent Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Season 15/9/5 Jun 2/0/0 Jul 1/1/0 Aug 4/3/1 Sep 6/4/3 Oct 2/1/1 Cat 3, GA, September 13th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Season and worst unchanged. July 3/2/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 July forecast: 2 NS / 1 H / 0 MH Updated seasonal forecast: 16 NS / 10 H / 5 MH Updated significant LF: SE FL (Miami-Dade County), Cat. 4, 120 kt, 20 August Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 July 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxFreak11 Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 July 3/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 July 2/1/0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ellinwood Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 July: 2.8/1/0 (updated 6/29) Season: 18/9/3.5 (unchanged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
icebreaker5221 Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 July: 2.5/1.0/0 Season: 16/8/3.5 (unchanged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
boulderrr Posted June 24, 2013 Share Posted June 24, 2013 July - 3/2/0 Season - 16/8/3 - (Unchanged) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 July monthly forecasts due, only update your seasonal if you're changing numbers, otherwise you're updated automatically at the earlier forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
My Weather Today Posted June 29, 2013 Share Posted June 29, 2013 July: 4/2/1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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