A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Thought I'd spin off the heavy rain talk from the general May and severe threads. Warm front trying to light up over DVN's CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Rivers are definitely rising in the DVN cwa. Iowa, Skunk and Cedar River locations forecasted to go to major flood stages Edit: Last 7 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 The heavier rain totals have been shifted farther south and east. Iowa was the bullseye, but now it's more MO and IL. It appears all these big MCSs just keep reinforcing the boundaries farther south. Tonight and Wednesday the northward push of the warm front was forecast to take the heavier rain north with it, but now the nws is saying the outflow boundaries across southern Iowa and northern Missouri will be the focus for the next big round of storms. My 4-day total is up to 3.47". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Isolated spots West of Ottumwa already picked up 2.5 inches in the last hour from the line that just formed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 micro line training like whoa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Latest 5-7 Day QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 it feels like the 2-4" bullseye has been over Iowa for a week now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 up to 4.7 inches from that line west of Ottumwa via radar estimates....I suppose there could be some hail in there too....big numbers to start the evening there.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 636 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013 DISCUSSION 637 PM CDT IN THE PROCESS OF EXPANDING THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE ALL BUT FAR NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. RESERVOIR OF DEEP MOISTURE POOLING ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE REGION WITH PWATS AROUND 200% OF NORMAL. REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS LONG MOSTLY WEST-EAST AREA OF CONVECTION FIRING FROM NC IL WEST ACROSS SOUTHERN IOWA TO SE NEBRASKA. VORT MAX MOVING INTO WESTERN IOWA WILL CONTINUE TO TRANSLATE EASTWARD TONIGHT WITH LOW LEVEL JET LIKELY TO INTENSIFY THIS EVENING IN ADVANCE OF THIS FEATURE FURTHERING ENHANCING ASCENT AND LL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE. RUC/WRF-NAM BOTH FORECAST CORFIDI VECTORS MAGNITUDE TO DROP TO NEAR ZERO TONIGHT AS THE LOW LEVEL JET INTENSIFIES...FURTHER POINTING TOWARD THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING CONVECTION TONIGHT. HEAVIER STORMS COULD EASILY PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS GREATER THAN 2 INCHES PER HOUR...AND SHOULD CONVECTION BEGIN TO TRAIN AS I FEAR THEN THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED AREAS TO END UP WITH 5+ INCHES OF RAIN TONIGHT SEEMS QUITE PLAUSIBLE WITH POTENTIAL FOR LOCALIZED SIGNIFICANT FLASH FLOOD EVENT. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 over/under Joliet @ 2.5"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 over/under Joliet @ 2.5"? from the ongoing cell... under.....but through 8 AM....I say well over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 man....southern Iowa getting owned...sheesh noc jet gonna make for some sick numbers in the lollipop zones Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 over/under Joliet @ 2.5"? Over. Maybe LOT is giving the RAP a nod. I-88 corridor getting hit hard tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Over. Maybe LOT is giving the RAP a nod. I-88 corridor getting hit hard tonight. I am thinking the storms out in Iowa will track a bit further north, and I-88 gets smoked. We will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 via LOT.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Geos sure loves him some RAP QPF maps. Anyway, right now, looks like the heavy rain threat is gonna be I-80 and south tonight/overnight. PIA might have a chance at breaking their Spring precip total record tonight/overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 943 PM EDT TUE MAY 28 2013 ...VALID 03Z WED MAY 29 2013 - 00Z THU MAY 30 2013... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... ...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY... LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REFOCUS TONIGHT INTO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY MOVING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE MID TO UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. PW VALUES ALONG THIS PORTION OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE 1.5-2.5+ STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE THE MEAN--SUPPORTING POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS. THERE IS A LARGE SPREAD IN THE MODELS QPF DETAILS OF WHERE THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL FOCUS---LEADING TO RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE. THE QPF AXIS OF THE HI-RES ARW---WHICH HAS SHOWN OVERALL BETTER SKILL IN DEPICTING THE SHAPE/SIZE OF RELATIVELY LARGE CONVECTIVE EVENTS---WAS FOLLOWED MORE FOR DETAILS THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER---THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WAS EXPANDED WESTWARD FROM THE ARW AXIS TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME OF THE SREF AND OPERATIONAL RUNS THAT HAVE HEAVY PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OVER FAR SOUTHEASTERN NE---FAR NORTHEASTERN KS AND NORTHWESTERN MO WHERE FFG VALUES ARE LOW. 1"+ SHORT TERM AND 2-4"+ TOTALS POSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Anyway, right now, looks like the heavy rain threat is gonna be I-80 and south tonight/overnight. agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 71/70 at ORD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL859 PM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS..0858 PM HEAVY RAIN MIDWAY AIRPORT 41.78N 87.75W05/28/2013 E1.96 INCH COOK IL ASOS 1.96 INCHES OF RAIN AT MIDWAY AIRPORT BETWEEN 741 PM AND 858 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Flash flood warnings starting to pile up on the map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Looks like a training situation could be in the works near the IL/WI stateline. Cells are flaring quickly 15 miles west of here back to the Rock River. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I'm down near KC, but I see on my station site we only picked up 0.19" there. Heavy rains stayed south again. Definitely a good thing for the QCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 How's this for a contrast...in the past 6 hours, 0.06" at ORD and 2.03" at MDW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Picked up 0.70" from last nights storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 mas agua.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 those maps have been ridiculously poor so far IMBY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 yeah...they try and connect the random lollipops that show up and it is mighty difficult with the nature of the storms this week....The O'Hare vs. Midway example from last night is a prime example as displayed by Hoosier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Only 0.10" with last night's storms here. Pushed me past the 19" mark though for year to date. Last 7 days of rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 via DVN... . HYDROLOGY...ISSUED AT 341 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASHFLOODING REMAINS LOW WITH SCATTERED AND LESS ORGANIZED ACTIVITY.HOWEVER...LATE TONIGHT THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT RETURNS AS THE NEXTLARGE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX BEGINS MOVING INTO THE AREA DURING THEEARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...AND CONTINUING FOR MUCH OF THE DAYTHURSDAY. A SIMILAR COMPLEX IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY WITH MORE HEAVYRAINFALL. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL OF THEAREA...WITH THE WESTERN PORTION BEGINNING AT 06Z TONIGHT...AND THEREMAINDER OF THE AREA BEGINNING AT 12Z TO TIME IN THE NEW MCS. WEHAVE CONTINUED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT TO ACCOUNTFOR THE ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING. A TWODAY FORECAST RAINFALL TOTAL OF BETWEEN 2 AND 4 INCHES FROM THURSDAYTHROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT IS CURRENTLY FORECAST.MODERATE TO MAJOR RIVER FLOODING...AND IN SOME INSTANCES RECORDFLOODING...WILL CONTINUE ALONG TRIBUTARY RIVERS IN EASTERN IA ANDFAR NORTHEAST MISSOURI. THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER IS EXPECTED TO SEEMODERATE TO MAJOR FLOODING...ESPECIALLY DOWNSTREAM FROM MUSCATINE.WITH ADDITIONAL RUNOFF FLOWING INTO THE RIVERS FROM LAST NIGHT/SHEAVY RAIN...AND CHANGES IN FORECAST QPF...CONTINUED ADJUSTMENTS TOBOTH THE MAGNITUDE AND TIMING OF RIVER FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED INUPDATED WARNING STATEMENTS AND FORECASTS ISSUED FOR THE NEXT 48HOURS.LE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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