Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 There could be a flash flooding issue setting up very quickly across Southern WI, a lot of training going on within the line with very little northward or southward movement of the line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 There could be a flash flooding issue setting up very quickly across Southern WI, a lot of training going on within the line with very little northward movement of the line. Yep, from there through S Minnesota could be flooding issues. Much of S Wisconsin have seen several MCS' in the last week and a half as well, the soils are already saturated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 S WI line is sinking south. Hearing thunder here now. Just south of MSN has had 3"+ of rain according to doppler estimates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Thought I might have to move the smoker under the patio umbrella but thankfully sinking south and nothing but very light rain so far and that doesn't look to change unless it happens to creep north. Nice light show off to the west for a good hr+ while sitting outside and now some nice relaxing rumbles south... Awesome spring and early summer rolls on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Line is starting to sag south into N. IL... Lightning photo op incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 In SE WI the line is sinking south, but there are more storms along the line and those aren't moving much laterally except maybe a touch to the northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Couple micro cells just fired nearby. Starting to get some rain now. Could get interesting if this line settles along the border for awhile. Edit: Really pouring here now with alot of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Some good lightning here as the line sags southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 0121 AM FLOOD SOUTH BELOIT 42.48N 89.03W06/22/2013 WINNEBAGO IL TRAINED SPOTTER6 INCHES OF STANDING WATER ON I-90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 In SE WI the line is sinking south, but there are more storms along the line and those aren't moving much laterally except maybe a touch to the northeast. Question is how much can/will survive into MI? Any thoughts as i have not been following much the past day or two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Getting a break now, but alot more +RN on the way. Almost constant thunder coming from the west. So far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Question is how much can/will survive into MI? Any thoughts as i have not been following much the past day or two? Everything that has been trying to cross the lake has fizzled out, so I am expecting nothing of significance tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Getting a break now, but alot more +RN on the way. Almost constant thunder coming from the west. So far. 062213rainfall_1.png That area in SW WI really getting pounded, the line isn't moving much there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Nice stacked plate shelf cloud with this line. Can't get any good pics though...all CTC lightning and the outflow is outrunning the storm a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 That area in SW WI really getting pounded, the line isn't moving much there. It's really dumping here! Hopefully the cells over this way are progressive. The urbanized nature of this county is prone to flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 It's really dumping here! Hopefully the cells over this way are progressive. The urbanized nature of this county is prone to flooding. Along the immediate lakeshore the line isn't moving as quickly as it is along the I-90/39 corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Everything that has been trying to cross the lake has fizzled out, so I am expecting nothing of significance tonight. DTX's aviation update from last hour actually has a very good glimpse into the storm chances overnight toward morning. THE QUESTION ON WHAT WILL BECOME OF THE CONVECTION OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THE TAFS THIS MORNING. THE UPSTREAM THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SEEMS TO BE FOCUSING ON EDGE OF CAP (SEE 00Z KDVN RAOB) FORCED BY LOCALIZED CVA. THE SHORTWAVE ENERGY IS A RECYCLED CONVECTIVE VORT MAX THAT HAS EMERGED FROM THE SOUTH. COLUMN MEAN FLOW OVER SOUTHERN WISCONSIN IS ACTUALLY QUITE WEAK AS THE LOW LEVEL JET IS WEAK WITHIN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. CORFIDI VECTORS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING ARE FROM THE EAST WHICH CORRESPONDS WELL TO THE BACKBUILDING BEHAVIOR SEEN RECENTLY. THIS LEAVES SERIOUS DOUBT IN POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO MIGRATE EASTWARD INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN. NEVERTHELESS..00Z KDTX RAOB SUGGESTS THAT EFFERVESCING WEAK CONVECTION MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING OVER THE NORTHERN CWA WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD TOP COOLING. FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN FORECAST CONTINUITY AND CONVERT PROB30 TO TEMPO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Best late night shelf cloud in at least a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Along the immediate lakeshore the line isn't moving as quickly as it is along the I-90/39 corridor. Yikes! Been awhile since it's rained this hard. Sump pump is going non stop now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Everything that has been trying to cross the lake has fizzled out, so I am expecting nothing of significance tonight. Yep.. GRR does not seem to impressed either till later Sunday night/Monday and beyond. blah.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Yep.. GRR does not seem to impressed either till later Sunday night/Monday and beyond. blah.. I think it will be sooner than that, especially on that side of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Question is how much can/will survive into MI? Any thoughts as i have not been following much the past day or two? Well I guess your question has been answered. But it still did its damage with the convection debris... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Well I guess your question has been answered. But it still did its damage with the convection debris... Good, if it isn't going to storm, I'd rather it isn't 90 with a heat index of 95-100. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Man did southwest Wisconsin get owned last night... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 lol at the RAP. No way will Detroit and especially Chicago get into the mid-90s later today. Maybe upper 80s/lower 90s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 A fair bit of rain here overnight, in the neighborhood of an inch, but not anywhere close to what they received in SW and SC Wisconsin in some spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 2 inches of rain here in the last 2 days...that's enough for now...lets go dry again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Just like yesterday the storms dipped just far enough south to hit Cedar Rapids. I got another 0.41", putting the two-day total at 1.74". This time we got better lightning/thunder as well. Any short-term dryness issues are now gone here. Iowa City and points south continue to get nothing. There appears to be a better shot of storms for the entire local area Sunday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 Picked up 2.16" of rain over the past 24hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted June 22, 2013 Share Posted June 22, 2013 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL DISCUSSION NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD 949 AM EDT SAT JUN 22 2013 ...VALID 15Z SAT JUN 22 2013 - 12Z SUN JUN 23 2013... ...REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHIC UNDER...DAY 1 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL... SLIGHT RISK OF RAINFALL EXCEEDING FFG TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S JKJ 10 SSW ADC 15 W JMR 25 NNW RPD 15 SSW PBH 15 SSW PCZ 20 NNE DKB 20 NW PIA 20 SSE MUT 10 ENE CID 10 ENE ALO 15 NE CAV 15 WSW AXA 10 SW SPW 10 NE YKN 40 SE ICR 10 NW 9V9 20 SW ABR 30 S JKJ. ...PORTIONS OF NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VLY/MIDWEST... LOTS OF IFFINESS IN TODAYS FCST HENCE THE LARGE SLGT RISK AREA BEING ISSUED. LIKE YDA..BELIEVE THAT TO A LARGE EXTENT..THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING PER MODEL FCSTS HAS OR WILL BE OVERWHELMED BY LAST NIGHTS/FUTURE CNVCTV EVENTS. IN GNRL..LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA IN GNRL CONTINUES TO SHOW AN E/W ORIENTED REGION OF LLVL MSTR CNVGNC AXIS LYING ACROSS THE AREA WHICH AGAIN SHOULD FOCUS THE INITIAL STAGES OF SGFNT CNVCTV RAINS TODAY. LATEST UPPER AIR DATA AS INDCS THE BEST MSTR AVBLTY AND MSTR FLUX INTO THIS FEATURE HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EWD TOWARDS THE MIDWEST AS COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. A NEVER ENDING SERIES OF WEAK IMPULSES BEING EJECTED FM THE CURRENT SLOWLY PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROF SHOULD FIRE THE ACTVTY WHICH WILL BE AIDED BY BROADLY DIV FLOW ALOFT. CURRENT THINKING IS FOR ACTVTY TO REDVLP ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF THE SD THIS AFTN AND PROPAGATE EWD PROBABLY CLOSE TO WHERE THE BEST RNFL OCCURRED YDA. SUSPECT THE HEAVIEST AMTS COULD OCCUR OVR SERN MN/WRN WI/NRN IL WHERE CNVCTN WILL BE SOMEWHAT REMOVED FM THE WLYS..THUS ALLOWING FOR CNVCTN TO BE VRY SLOW MOVG ACROSS THE AREA. THAT BEING SAID AND GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY INVOLVED..COULD SEE 2.00 INCH TOTALS ANYWHERE WHERE WITHIN THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH TOTALS OF 4.00 INCHES POSSIBLE THRU THE FCST PD. looks like same spots in for more heavy rain moving forward...fairly obvious, but Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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