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June 2013 General Discussion/Obs


snowlover2

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His whole 7-day is gonna fail.

Low-mid 90's for the next 7-days isn't happening.

 

Haha, yeah I thought that was a bit extreme.

Had a 95° for Tuesday I believe.

 

Winds are turning gusty out of the SE/SSE here.

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Only 3 days above 80 and a max of 85 this month so far so really looking forward to some heat that sticks around for more than a day or two.. Perfect weekend to hit the lakefront  all day both days for perch fishing and then chilling on the beach.

 

As usual summer is flying by with 11 days of summerfest and the 4th of July week  vacation right around the corner will put us to almost half way through summer when we get back on the 14th..  Bonus points for losing a half hr of daylight between when we get back and the end of the month July..   Foot steps from fall approaching are getting louder and louder by the day  :guitar:

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Well, dang it.  Elkhart Jazz festival starts this evening with thousands of people in the area and many outdoor venue stages which offer free jazz.  Those with paid admission will hear artists indoors but lots of vendors, artists, and the public usually take up residence on blocked off city streets downtown.  Looks like a good t storm then solid rain for awhile heading this way.

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Follow the ridge, this is a high 80's/low 90's type of ridge. Models don't have a clue on convection and should not be fo]lowed on that one.

 

Probably will have most days falling short of 90° here being close to the lake and all. - Plus the soils look to remain wet.

 

Not getting out of the 70s for the remainder of the day. Can just make out the outline of the sun at this point in time.

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My point has 94F for a high on Sunday. :o   I guarantee if we bust, it will be low that day.  Between the wet ground and the potential for these convective episodes to keep the boundaries at least nearby make it questionable at best to go that aggressive.

Not sure why they are forecasting that warm. Lower level temp profiles would support a high around 90 and that's if we are free of clouds.

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79° was the high today here. Temperature really never recovered after the rain. Still basically overcast now. 

 

 

Not paying attention to the high temperatures so much (there out of hand anyways), but the model is showing a back door front tomorrow - early afternoon. Plus outflow into S MI and N IN.

 

temp26.gif

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Yuck!

 

Feels like summer now! I think it's humid now, but the dewpoint is only 65°!

 

Yea, it's noticeably humid to me here with a dewpoint in the low 60s.  Been spoiled for the past few weeks in Michigan.  Decent mix of sun and rain, no death ridge, no drought, very green, tolerable temperatures, and no excessive humidity.  The typical summer soup has to show up sooner or later.

 

When it hits the mid 70s it's usually that late morning soup layer coming off the corn crop.  The dps usually mix back down to around 70 by later in the afternoon/evening, but then the temperature is higher.  That's the typical summer soup pattern.

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via LOT....

 

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
927 PM CDT FRI JUN 21 2013

.DISCUSSION...
927 PM CDT

SHOWERS HAVE FINALLY EXITED THE CWA WHILE NEW SHOWERS ARE
SPROUTING OVER WISCONSIN. UPSTREAM THERE ARE TWO CONVECTIVE
COMPLEXES...ONE OVER SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AND THE OTHER OVER
SOUTHERN SOUTH DAKOTA/WESTERN NEBRASKA. LOCALLY...THE ATMOSPHERE
HAS STABILIZED BEHIND THE LINE OF STORMS. THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING AND
AMDAR SOUNDINGS ALL INDICATE A SIGNIFICANT CAP BETWEEN 850 AND 700
MB. HOWEVER THEY ALSO FEATURE 1000+ J/KG OF MIXED LAYER CAPE. PWAT
VALUES ARE ALSO AROUND 1.5 INCHES SO THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS JUICY
THIS EVENING. DID NOT ADJUST LOW TEMPERATURES OR DEWPOINTS FOR
TONIGHT BY MUCH...WITH A MUGGY EVENING STILL ON TAP.

NOW TO THE TRICKY PART...PRECIP CHANCES TONIGHT. THE GENERAL
PATTERN IS FOR THE LOW LEVEL JET TO STRENGTHEN WITH THE NOSE OF
THE JET OVER SE IA/W CEN IL/SW WI. NEW CONVECTION IS PROGGED TO
FIRE OVER ALONG THE NOSE OF THE JET...AND GIVEN THE ENVIRONMENT
EXPECTING ELEVATED CONVECTION. FOR TIMING...THINKING THE CHANCES
WILL BE BEST ALONG AND NORTH OF I-88 AFTER 06Z THROUGH THE
MORNING. UPDATED THE POP/WX FORECAST TO REFLECT THE TREND OF
INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES THROUGH THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
BUT OVERALL CONFIDENCE IS STILL LOW TO MEDIUM WITH HOW/IF
CONVECTION WILL EVOLVE THROUGH THE MORNING.
 

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FLASH FLOODING IS ALSO A CONCERN TONIGHT AS WARM CLOUD LAYER
DEPTHS CLIMB INTO THE 4 TO 4.5 KM RANGE AND PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES CLIMB INTO THE 1.8 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
JET CONTINUING TO IMPINGE ON THE FRONT NEAR THE MINNESOTA AND IOWA
BORDER...EXPECT CONVECTION TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN
NEBRASKA...WESTERN IOWA AND SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT. THIS CONVECTION WOULD THEN TRAIN INTO THE FORECAST AREA
WITH THE MEAN WIND. WOULD NOT BE SHOCKED TO SEE 3 TO 5 INCHES OF
RAIN FALL ACROSS PARTS OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE EVEN SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THIS LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC MADDOX WARM
FRONTAL FLASH FLOOD EVENT. DUE TO THIS...ISSUED A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH FOR TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON SATURDAY MORNING AS THE
LOW LEVEL JET WEAKENS.

 

nice

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Many storms in between Madison and Milwaukee, might be some dry air here by the lake though because they seem to have a hard time making it into the lakeshore counties without weakening.

 

That one particular cell over Waukesha looks like it's holding its own.

 

One micro cell passed to my south. Just a bit of thunder so far.

 

Edit: Looking like a potential training situation developing along 18.

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Wasn't expecting to read 3-5" in that AFD! How is your cherries doing with all the recent rain - DLL?

 

Probably see the first storm in here by 11.u

We actually ate some sweet cherries today... just started turning dark red..  ripening very quickly in this heat.  Didn't notice any cracking after the rain this morning, we'll see what tomorrow brings.

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