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June 2013 General Discussion/Obs


snowlover2

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FWIW....much more soil moisture this year (compared to last year at least) should help maintain some healthy DP's....thus should help keep any mid upper 90's from rearing their ugly heads in this region.  Although with those increased DP's heat indexes could be similar anyways.  And clearly this depends on where the ridge actually puffs up to and the lingering MCS debris, etc.

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0z GFS has 0.05" total rainfall for the next 8 days for LAF. :axe:  

 

Been pretty dry here since May 1, now exceeding 2.00" below normal...and that will continue to grow as the death ridge encompasses central Indiana. Another summer drought en route. 

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All the way down to 47° this AM. Winds must have slackened off quite a bit last night. Not looking forward to the high dewpoints at all, but I guess it's about time for them.

 

After tonight, it will probably be awhile before another sub 60° low happens.

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0z GFS has 0.05" total rainfall for the next 8 days for LAF. :axe:  

 

Been pretty dry here since May 1, now exceeding 2.00" below normal...and that will continue to grow as the death ridge encompasses central Indiana. Another summer drought en route. 

 

 

not gonna lie, pattern looks pretty awful

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0z GFS has 0.05" total rainfall for the next 8 days for LAF. :axe:  

 

Been pretty dry here since May 1, now exceeding 2.00" below normal...and that will continue to grow as the death ridge encompasses central Indiana. Another summer drought en route. 

Almost 10 inches above normal in LAN.

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0z GFS has 0.05" total rainfall for the next 8 days for LAF. :axe:

Been pretty dry here since May 1, now exceeding 2.00" below normal...and that will continue to grow as the death ridge encompasses central Indiana. Another summer drought en route.

Still way ahead of last year with precip but this is the time of year when evaporation rates are high. Pattern doesn't look extremely hot to me yet...just consistent upper 80s/low 90s type stuff which does get boring after a while.

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0z GFS has 0.05" total rainfall for the next 8 days for LAF. :axe:

Been pretty dry here since May 1, now exceeding 2.00" below normal...and that will continue to grow as the death ridge encompasses central Indiana. Another summer drought en route.

Still way ahead of last year with precip but this is the time of year when evaporation rates are high. Pattern doesn't look extremely hot to me yet...just consistent upper 80s/low 90s type stuff which does get boring after a while.

Isn't your average high down there in the mid 80s?

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WPC thoughts...

 

EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1202 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013

VALID 12Z SAT JUN 22 2013 - 12Z WED JUN 26 2013


BY DAY 5/MON...THE GFS AND GEFS MEMBERS POSSIBLY SHOW THEIR
OCCASIONAL FAST BIAS IN ALLOWING LEADING PORTIONS OF THE LONGWAVE
TROUGH FORMING ACROSS THE WEST TO EJECT EASTWARD INTO THE BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE.  GIVEN GROWING UNCERTAINTY FROM THIS PERIOD
ONWARD...AND SUPPORT FOR SLOWER EJECTION PROVIDED BY THE 06Z
PARALLEL GFS...THE PREFERENCE FROM DAY 5 ONWARD IS FOR A SOLUTION
CLOSEST TO THE SLOWER ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN...BUT WITH BELOW AVERAGE
CONFIDENCE.  SIMILAR PREFERENCES WERE CHOSEN ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EAST...BUT WITH LESS CONFIDENCE DUE TO MESOSCALE UNCERTAINTIES
WHICH MAY INFLUENCE THE FRONTAL POSITIONS.

 

 

such is the life along/around the proverbial "RING OF FIRE"  muhahahahaha....

 

:popcorn: 
 

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WPC thoughts...

 

 

such is the life along/around the proverbial "RING OF FIRE"  muhahahahaha....

 

:popcorn: 

 

 

Yes, and given those difficulties, I could see the frontal zone stalling further south quite easily.  It could also be farther north, but that's much less likely it seems with daily MCS activity maintaining or dropping the warm front position temporarily.

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