Roger Smith Posted June 3, 2013 Author Share Posted June 3, 2013 By the way, the current maximum values attained so far this year stand at 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 89 ... 95 so in this thread I will update these whenever they need a boost, and rather than the daily anomaly updates of May, I will update on multiples of four days then daily after the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 5, 2013 Author Share Posted June 5, 2013 This month I will report on anomalies every four days until 24th then every day to end of June. The bonus question will also receive regular updates, so this first report gives the anomalies after four days and the current yearly maxima at all six stations: DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +5.1 __ +7.0 __ +9.6 ____ --4.8 __ +3.1 __ +0.5 ________ 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 89 ... 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 9, 2013 Author Share Posted June 9, 2013 The update after eight days ... DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +2.0 __ +1.4 __ +3.8 ____ --5.0 __ +0.4 __ +0.2 ________ 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 89 ... 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 13, 2013 Author Share Posted June 13, 2013 After 12 days ... DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH ________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +2.3 __ +0.9 __ +1.9 ____ --2.4 __ +1.3 __ +0.1 _________ 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 91 ... 96* next update after 16 days. * IAH reset at 96 on 13th, max to 12th was 95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 16, 2013 Author Share Posted June 16, 2013 After 15 days ... halfway home DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.9 __ --0.6 __ +1.0 ____ --2.2 __ +1.1 __ +0.8 _________ 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 91 ... 96 next update after 18 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ArcticIce Posted June 16, 2013 Share Posted June 16, 2013 July looks to go full on torch....Should be a warm end to June. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 19, 2013 Author Share Posted June 19, 2013 After 18 days ... DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.7 __ +0.1 __ +1.0 ____ --1.5 __ +0.6 __ +1.2 _________ 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 91 ... 96 next update after 21 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 22, 2013 Author Share Posted June 22, 2013 After 21 days ... DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.0 __ --0.4 __ +0.8 ____ --1.4 __ +0.6 __ +1.2 _________ 91 ... 90 ... 94 ... 91 ... 91 ... 96 next update after 24 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 23, 2013 Share Posted June 23, 2013 Other than DCA, I'm liking where I'm at... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 25, 2013 Author Share Posted June 25, 2013 After 24 days ... sharp rises for ORD, NYC and BOS, while DCA & IAH hold and ATL falls to near zero anomaly now ... and also, new seasonal marks for BOS, NYC set on 24th. DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.0 __ +0.3 __ +1.8 ____ --0.6 __ +0.1 __ +1.2 _________ 91 ... 92 ... 95 ... 91 ... 91 ... 96 next update after 25 days -- we go daily now -- some provisional scoring may appear if I have time. Outlook: Most stations are likely to drift up slightly to the end of the month although ATL could stay about where they are now. As of today's numbers, consensus is scoring 528 and Mallow who was liking his position is at about 554. This could turn into a scorefest as about half the field are not very far from consensus. Would say the finish will be something like +1.2, +0.7, +2.1, 0.0, 0.0, +1.5 (hard to change IAH up but some 97s and 98s are predicted). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted June 25, 2013 Share Posted June 25, 2013 Outlook: Most stations are likely to drift up slightly to the end of the month although ATL could stay about where they are now. As of today's numbers, consensus is scoring 528 and Mallow who was liking his position is at about 554. This could turn into a scorefest as about half the field are not very far from consensus. Would say the finish will be something like +1.2, +0.7, +2.1, 0.0, 0.0, +1.5 (hard to change IAH up but some 97s and 98s are predicted). I'd just like to clarify that I like my numbers, not necessarily my position compared to the other forecasters. I know other forecasters are doing significantly better than me, I'm just happy to be doing better than climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 26, 2013 Author Share Posted June 26, 2013 After 25 days ... new seasonal highs for DCA (94) and IAH (97). DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.2 __ +0.6 __ +2.1 ____ --0.4 __ +0.1 __ +1.4 _________ 94 ... 92 ... 95 ... 91 ... 91 ... 97 next update after 26 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 After 26 days ... new seasonal high for IAH (98). DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.3 __ +0.8 __ +2.1 ____ --0.4 __ +0.1 __ +1.5 _________ 94 ... 92 ... 95 ... 91 ... 91 ... 98 next update after 27 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 27, 2013 Author Share Posted June 27, 2013 (edited June 30th, these values confirmed 0930h July 1st) Provisional Verified scoring for June (adjusted to new penalty structure) ________________________________________________________________ Forecaster __________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS __TOT _____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH __ TOT ____ SCORE provisional values ____ +1.3 __+1.2 __+1.9 __________ --0.4 __+0.2 __+1.9 Roger Smith _________ 98 __ 98 __ 90 __ 286 _______ 80 __ 98 __ 92 __ 270 ____ 556 Mallow _____________ 88 __ 98 __ 98 __ 284 _______ 98 __ 96 __ 72 __ 266 _____ 550 Midlo Snow Maker ____ 88 __ 90 __100 __ 278 _______ 82 __ 86 _ 100 __ 268 _____ 546 donsutherland.1 ______ 98 __ 90 __ 98 __ 286 _______ 82 __ 94 __ 78 __ 254 _____ 540 SD _________________ 94 __ 98 __ 76 __ 268 _______ 98 __ 74 __ 98 __ 270 _____ 538 Metalicwx366 _________ 96 __ 86 __ 98 __ 280 _______ 98 __ 80 __ 78 __ 256 _____ 536 RodneyS ____________ 96 __ 98 __ 86 __ 280 _______ 72 __ 98 __ 86 __ 256 _____ 536 Consensus ___________ 98 __ 98 __ 88 __ 284 _______ 82 __ 92 __ 76 __ 250 _____ 534 blazess556 __________ 98 __ 86 __ 92 __ 276 _______ 78 __ 92 __ 80 __ 250 _____ 526 Ellinwood ____________ 94 __ 86 __ 98 __ 278 _______ 74 __ 94 __ 78 __ 246 _____ 524 ohleary _____________ 98 __ 84 __ 94 __ 276 _______ 84 __ 92 __ 70 __ 246 _____ 522 Chicago Wx __________ 90 __ 90 __ 72 __ 252 _______ 76 __ 84 __ 82 __ 242 _____ 494 bkviking _____________ 88 __ 78 __ 84 __ 250 _______ 96 __ 84 __ 56 __ 236 _____ 486 Goobagooba _________ 98 __ 84 __ 72 __ 254 _______92 __ 80 __ 58 __ 230 _____ 484 uncle w _____________ 94 __ 86 __ 76 __ 256 _______ 82 __ 90 __ 52 __ 224 _____ 480 Sacrus ______________ 82 __ 84 __ 92 __ 258 _______ 84 __ 92 __ 44 __ 220 _____ 478 H2OTown_Wx ________ 98 __ 92 __ 90 __ 280 _______ 42 __ 98 __ 52 __ 192 _ 472 ___________ (-1%) ___ 97 __ 91 __ 89 __ 277 _______ 42 __ 97 __ 51 __ 190 _____ 467 Normal ______________ 74 __ 76 __ 62 __ 212 _______ 92 __ 96 __ 62 __ 250 _____ 462 Stebo ______________ 100 __ 90 _ 100 __ 290 _______ 50 __ 70 __ 48 __ 168 _____ 458 hudsonvalley21 _______ 84 __ 88 __ 66 __ 238 _______ 80 __ 70 __ 70 __ 220 _____ 458 skierinvermont ________ 74 __ 86 __ 82 __ 242 _______ 88 __ 96 __ 82 __ 266 _ 508 __________ (-11%) ____ 66 __ 77 __ 73 __ 216 _______ 79 __ 88 __ 73 __ 240 _____ 456 MN Transplant ________ 78 __ 76 __ 52 __ 206 _______ 68 __ 84 __ 82 __ 234 _____ 440 Chicago Storm ________ 94 __ 78 __ 68 __ 240 _______ 72 __ 98 __ 68 __ 238 _ 478 ___________ (-8%) ____ 87 __ 72 __ 62 __ 221 _______ 67 __ 90 __ 62 __ 219 _____ 440 Isotherm _____________ 74 __ 66 __ 56 __ 196 _______ 86 __ 82 __ 72 __ 240 _____ 436 Tom ________________ 72 __ 80 __ 68 __ 220 _______ 74 __ 86 __ 54 __ 214 _____ 434 Inudaw ______________ 84 __ 74 __ 92 __ 250 _______ 62 __ 78 __ 38 __ 178 _____ 428 NZucker _____________ 74 __ 62 __ 42 __ 178 _______ 68 __ 80 __ 98 __ 246 _____ 424 wxdude64 ____________ 98 __ 56 __ 46 __ 200 _______ 72 __ 64 __ 84 __ 220 _____ 420 Wx Hype _____________ 52 __ 56 __ 74 __ 182 _______ 54 __ 88 __ 94 __ 236 _____ 418 DerekZ ______________ 64 __ 66 __ 52 __ 182 _______ 90 __ 70 __ 38 __ 198 _____ 380 ________________________________________________________________________________ Scores for the month were higher than in most months so one could expect rather small changes to the rankings in the annual contest, look for those numbers on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 28, 2013 Author Share Posted June 28, 2013 After 27 days ... seasonal high for IAH (98) tied previous day. DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.2 __ +1.0 __ +1.7 ____ --0.2 __ +0.2 __ +1.7 _________ 94 ... 92 ... 95 ... 91 ... 91 ... 98 next update after 28 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 29, 2013 Author Share Posted June 29, 2013 After 28 days ... IAH and ATL have posted new seasonal highs on the 28th ... IAH is our first station to reach 100, and ATL has advanced to 92. DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.2 __ +1.1 __ +1.7 ____ --0.1 __ +0.3 __ +1.7 _________ 94 ... 92 ... 95 ... 91 ... 92 ... 100 next update after 29 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 I will post some updated anomalies after 29 days later on but note that IAH smashed their previous record high for the date and set a new mark for the seasonal high at 107 F thanks to a northeast breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted June 30, 2013 Author Share Posted June 30, 2013 After 29 days ... IAH has now posted a max of 107, otherwise very little change, and today's readings don't seem to promise much more than incremental changes for the final values. I may fiddle with the provisional scoring back a few posts, and then will have the final scoring on line during the day tomorrow along with the final values (remembering that they changed BOS on me due to a rethink of their record high on May 31st). DCA ___ NYC ___ BOS ____ ORD ___ ATL ___ IAH _________ DCA_NYC_BOS_ORD_ATL_IAH +1.2 __ +1.1 __ +1.8 ____ --0.3 __ +0.3 __ +1.9 _________ 94 ... 92 ... 95 ... 91 ... 92 ... 107 next update will be in the final scoring report. On the bonus question, as I originally worded it (highest at any site), Stebo has already won since his forecast of 106 for IAH is the highest for any station by any forecaster. Metallicwx366 is second at 105. But as most of you entered on the basis of predicting highs for all six stations, that outcome is yet to be determined. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 1, 2013 Author Share Posted July 1, 2013 Provisional scoring a few posts back (#44), on Sunday I edited in some updated values and so far the DCA, NYC and ORD final values (I hope) are confirmed as per the scoring table, +1.3, +1.2 and --0.4. The other three stations always post their confirmed values several hours later and as I am now hitting the sack, it will be well on into the afternoon eastern time before I post those and adjust the provisional scoring to a final table. So check back later for that, my provisional values in use for the scoring are +1.9 for BOS, +0.2 for ATL and +1.9 for IAH. (edit at 0920) Can now confirm that those provisional values are posted as final values. I will work on the scoring later but the month is therefore provisionally scored in post 44 but I may find one or two errors in that when I take a second look. As I am not at home base I don't have my excel backup available, so bear with me. Think that I will work on the cumulatiive scoring tomorrow in any case. So, confirmed final values are: +1.3, +1.2, +1.9, -0.4, +0.2, +1.9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 1, 2013 Share Posted July 1, 2013 On the bonus question, as I originally worded it (highest at any site), Stebo has already won since his forecast of 106 for IAH is the highest for any station by any forecaster. Metallicwx366 is second at 105. But as most of you entered on the basis of predicting highs for all six stations, that outcome is yet to be determined. One down 5 to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ____________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score________________________________________________________________________________....Annual (cum) values ......... +0.8 .. 0.0 .. +0.8 ........ ... --0.7 .. --0.1 .. +0.1 ...................... Best score awards__________________________________________________________________________________(for months)01 MIDLO SNOW MAKER ..... 440 .. 426 .. 494 .....1360 .... .... 349 .. 392 .. 498 .... 1239 ..... 2599 ___BOS,NYC,IAH++,EX02 RODNEY S ......................494 .. 448 .. 494 .....1436 .... .... 345 .. 386 ... 426 .... 1157 ..... 2593 ___ CL+ NYC,ORD,ATL 03 DONSUTHERLAND1 ........ 392 .. 424 .. 502 .....1318 .... .... 337 .. 382 .. 424 .... 1143 ...... 2461 _____ BOS,IAH04 WXDUDE64 .................... 460 .. 440 .. 446 .....1346 .... .... 373 .. 316 .. 404 .... 1093 ...... 2439 _____ CL,NYC,305 MN TRANSPLANT ........... 408 .. 492 .. 466 ..... 1366 .... .... 243 .. 357 .. 368 ..... 968 ..... 2334 _____ NYC(06) Consensus ................... 422 .. 428 .. 504 ....1354 .... ..... 267 .. 299 ... 404 ..... 970 ..... 2324_____ DCA,NYC,BOS+ 06 MALLOW ....................... 406 .. 432 .. 474 .....1312 .... .... 236 .. 346 .. 400 ..... 982 ..... 2294 ___ NYC,ORD,ATL,IAH, 1 (06) Normal ...................... 358 .. 442 .. 452 .....1252 .... .... 326 .. 342 .. 358 .... 1026 ..... 2278 ______ ATL+ NYC07 SACRUS ........................ 386 .. 426 .. 466 .....1278 .... .... 324 .. 309 .. 352 ..... 985 ..... 2263 ____ BOS+ORD, 4 08 BLAZESS556 .................. 392 .. 394 .. 484 .... 1270 .... .... 339 .. 284 .. 360 ..... 983 ..... 2253 09 SD ................................ 388 .. 440 .. 470 ..... 1298 .... .... 361 .. 266 .. 326 ..... 953 .... 2251 ______ NYC,ORD; EX 10 BKVIKING ....................... 370 .. 372 .. 486 .... 1228 .... .... 350 .. 298 .. 362 .... 1010 ...... 2238 ____ DCA 11 SKIERINVERMONT ......... 400 .. 420 .. 445 .... 1265 .... .... 308 .. 316 .. 290 ..... 914 ..... 2179 ______ IAH12 UNCLE W ....................... 348 .. 410 .. 424 .... 1182 .... ... 275 .. 328 .. 384 ..... 987 ..... 2169 ______ ATL 13 STEBO .......................... 366 .. 428 .. 496 ..... 1290 .... .... 310 .. 252 .. 314 ..... 876 ..... 2166 _____ DCA,BOS; CL 14 ELLINWOOD ................... 380 .. 380 .. 456 .... 1216 .... ... 259 .. 313 .. 360 ...... 932 ..... 214815 CHICAGO_WX ................ 374 .. 390 .. 454 .... 1218 .... .... 275 .. 257 .. 362 ..... 894 ..... 2112 ____ CL,DCA,BOS 16 INUDAW ........................ 392 .. 400 .. 510 .... 1302 .... .... 273 .. 207 .. 326 ..... 806 ..... 210817 TOM .............................. 310 .. 388 .. 438 .... 1136 .... .... 327 .. 240 .. 322 ..... 889 ..... 202518 ISOTHERM ..................... 368 .. 342 .. 378 .... 1088 ..... .... 206 .. 265 .. 410 ..... 881 ...... 1969 ____ EX,BOS, 519 H2OTOWN_WX .............. 388 .. 374 .. 433 .... 1195 .... .... 170 .. 291 .. 282 ..... 743 ...... 1938 ______ CL, BOS+ ATL20 GOOBAGOOBA ............... 356 .. 334 .. 372 .... 1062 .... ... 282 .. 223 .. 346 ..... 851 ..... 1913 ______ DCA 21 ROGER SMITH ................ 336 .. 328 .. 392 .... 1056 .... ... 261 .. 266 .. 298 ..... 825 ..... 1881 NYC,BOS,ORD,ATL,IAH,EX,622 DEREK Z ........................ 322 .. 270 .. 324 ..... 916 .... ... 212 .. 284 .. 366 ..... 862 ..... 1778 ______ EX,ATL23 HUDSONVALLEY21* ...... 334 .. 358 .. 318 .... 1010 .... ... 246 .. 238 .. 248 ..... 732 ...... 174224 CHICAGO STORM ........... 314 .. 343 .. 400 .... 1057 .... ... 151 .. 199 .. 303 ..... 653 ..... 1710 25 WXHYPE ......................... 283 .. 264 .. 293 ..... 840 .... ... 248 .. 237 .. 336 ..... 821 ...... 1661 ___IAH,EX,DCA,ORD 26 NZUCKER* ..................... 245 .. 303 .. 267 ..... 815 .... ... 240 .. 259 .. 282 ..... 781 ..... 1596 _____ NYC27 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS*. 307 .. 284 .. 344 ..... 935 .... .... 92 .. 173 .. 228 ...... 493 ..... 1428 28 METALICWX366*** .......... 239 .. 235 .. 237 .... 711 .... ... 205 .. 211 .. 172 ..... 588 ..... 129929 SRAIN** .......................... 200 .. 264 .. 320 ..... 784 .... .... 129 .. 156 .. 212 ..... 497 ..... 128130 FRIVOLOUSZ21** ............ 257 .. 224 .. 287 ..... 768 .... ... 173 .. 154 .. 156 ..... 483 ..... 1251 _____ NYC, ORD 31 I.NEED.SNOW*** ........... 242 .. 254 .. 210 ..... 706 .... ... 187 .. 166 .. 132 .... 485 ..... 1191 _____ CL,EX,DCA,ATL,2 32 MR TORCHEY** .............. 242 .. 228 .. 250 ..... 720 .... .... 129 .. 149 .. 188 ..... 466 ..... 1186 _____ BOS, ATL 33 OHLEARY**** .................. 194 ..174 ..184 .... 552 .... ..... 142 .. 168 .. 166 .... 476 .....102834 ANDY HB**** .................. 166 .. 188 .. 170 .... 524 .... ... 100 .. 132 .. 102 ...... 334 ...... 85835 WEATHERDUDE***............ 94 .. 129 .. 175 .... 398 .... .... 63 ... 90 .. 122 ..... 275 ...... 673 36 CPICK79****.................... 126 ... 78 .. 158 .... 362 .... .... 99 .. 104 .. 86 ..... 289 ....... 65137 SKISHEEP****.................... 65 ... 97 .. 146 .... 308 .... ..... 75 ... 83 .. 133 ...... 291 ..... 59938 BRAD1551****................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 .... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 ______ NYC39 EDUARDO*****.................. 92 ... 88 ... 90 .... 270 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 92 ..... 212 ...... 48240 MIKE VENTRICE***** ........ 66 ... 78 ... 74 .... 218 .... ..... 66 ... 90 ... 82 ..... 238 ...... 45641 QVECTORMAN**** ........... 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 _____ DCA42 B.IRVING*****................... 94 ... 70 ... 96 ..... 260 .... ..... 70 ... 74 ... 12 ..... 156 ...... 41643 ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY***** 80 ... 78 ... 82 ..... 240 .... ..... 25 ... 50 ... 86 ...... 161 ...... 40144 WESTWIND*****............... 44 ... 80 .. 116 .... 240 .... ..... 30 ... 11 .. 112 ...... 153 ...... 39345 LONGISLANDWX*****........ 56 ... 52 ... 82 ..... 190 .... ..... 72 ... 28 ... 90 ...... 190 ...... 38046 BRIAN 5671***** ............... 68 ... 96 ... 68 ..... 232 .... ..... 36 ... 72 ... 18 ..... 126 ...... 35847 HOCKEYINC*****................ 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170 .... ..... 88 ... 44 ... 28 ..... 160 ...... 33048 NYCSUBURBS*****............. 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 .... ..... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ...... 32249 STORMITECTURE*****........ 29 ... 54 ... 92 ..... 175 .... ..... 02 ... 00 ... 73 ..... 075 ..... 25050 SHADES*****...................... 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 .... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238 51 TSTEEL*****....................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 .... ..... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ...... 20952 WHITEOUTMD*****............ 24 ... 30 ... 40 ..... 094 .... ..... 26 ... 02 ... 72 ..... 100 ...... 19453 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA***** 30 . 28 . 32 .... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 19054 69APORCUPINE***** .......... 02 ... 00 ... 06 ..... 008 .... ..... 00 ... 12 ... 12 ..... 024 ...... 03255 OKIE333***** .................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 .... ..... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ...... 010_____________________________________________________________________________________* asterisks show how many months a forecaster has missed ... no asterisk, has been in every month"Best score" awards are listed first by cumulative best scores from this table, and then by all best scores for stations and groups every month entered.Monthly winners so far are Mallow (Jan) I.need.snow (Feb) wxdude64 (Mar) Sacrus (Apr), Isotherm (May) and Roger Smith (June). This is coded into the table by number of the month (in the monthly column). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skierinvermont Posted July 2, 2013 Share Posted July 2, 2013 Would be in 5th with 2348 instead of 11th without late penalties. Luckily I was on amwx at midnight on June 30th and got my July guess in at 12:03am. I have a feeling June won't be the last month I am late though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 2, 2013 Author Share Posted July 2, 2013 As I've agreed to impose more lenient penalties for July 1st (see details on July thread) it might make sense to recalculate all earlier penalties on the same basis and use this somewhat more user-friendly approach from now on. I will do this if I gather that there is consensus and no strong objections. But it may take a few days and I have to co-ordinate with Chicago Wx who does the nicer version of the annual scoring tables. Note that my proposal would still be taking off 24% a day after day one after removing just 6% at maximum on day one, so some of the later late entries will still get a rather severe bite, but I think that is fair enough, forecasting by the 3rd or 4th you probably have a 30-40 point advantage on the field so that losing 50-100 points is not that big a penalty. Anyway, my only objective is to provide the contest that you folks want to have, I'm quite flexible on the scoring (especially now). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 I wanted to finalize this matter of the revision of time penalties both past and future. The July contest penalties will stand as per the table. Future time penalties will apply as follows: for August, October, November and December, the time penalties will be assessed at half the previous rate on the first day of the contest months. That is to say, one percent penalty per 2-hr period late on the first (using Eastern time whether daylight or standard at the relevant time). I noticed that December 1st is a Sunday but figure that with it being the final month the penalties should not be too lenient, the new structure already gives a 12% break on this first day and I believe that's good enough. This 12% on first day, 24% thereafter, will also be the revised penalty rate going back through the contest to date to make things fair for those already penalized. I have now worked out these penalties, which will provide an increase somewhat smaller than the one previously posted above (now deleted to avoid confusion) since that was based on one-quarter the rate on the first day January to June (6% total) rather than the new value of one-half (12%). The next two posts will show the new score adjustments and the new scoring table. Other than Skierinvermont and to a lesser extent Sacrus and lower in the table WxHype, Chicago Storm and NZucker, the changes are generally very small in ranking terms, and the larger changes are still rather modest. I believe they now reflect a fairer balance of forecasting skill vs necessary time penalty structure, without entirely taking away the penalty disincentive. For September, when the Labor Day weekend interferes with the contest deadline, a more lenient rate will apply: the first day will see one-quarter time penalties (one per cent for every four hours), the second day which is Labor Day will see one-half time penalties (one per cent for every two hours) which means anyone entering on the 3rd will be on the clock at the usual rate (one per cent per hour) but will only face an 18% deficit on top of that rather than 48% ... I think this is a fair balance between advantage gained and the natural tendency to miss the deadline due to the holiday weekend. Having clarified that, we won't have any further changes or exceptions so I have posted a revised table of adjusted scores showing how the relaxed penalties from January to June apply, and also a revised annual scoring table below that. With these smaller time penalties, I believe we have struck a better balance between skill and scoring. What's the real scoring advantage for a late forecast? That's hard to estimate although some months I would say it amounts to 20-40 points per day, which is around 5% a day at least. There should be punitive effect on top of the raw score adjustment factor, to reward consistently on-time entrants. So I've been searching for the right balance and feel this is as close as we're likely to get. Waking up on the first and realizing that it's contest deadline time will now be subject to a relatively lenient 4-5% penalty if you wake up reasonably early. Even missing the first altogether and getting in on the second won't totally kill your chances of a good score -- at 0900h on the 2nd of most months, the penalty rate stands at 21% now instead of the formerly harsh 33%. That's the main objective here, toi balance the penalty with contest skill, and I hope this change will be acceptable to everyone. Just to review, July has a more lenient first day penalty than all other months past or future, except September, and that will have an even more lenient second day, to account for the holidays and or weekends involved. But there's still enough of a clawback to discourage anyone (especially regulars near the top) from waiting to see what's up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Partly for the contestants involved and partly for Chicago Wx and his table, these are the specific added scores (not raw scores, added per month) as a result of these penalty amendments. In each case, the scores are only adjusted for the six stations then summed for groups and totals, the calculations have not been applied directly to totals but the totals follow the adjustments to station scores. FORECASTER __________ DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ TOT ____ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ___ TOT ___ SCORE ___________________________________________________________________________________ SkierinVermont (Jan) ____ +5 __ +10 __ +10 ___ +25 _____ 00 ___ +1 ___ 0 ____ +1 ______ +26 _____________(Mar) ___ 00 __ 00 ___ +1 ____ +1 _______ 00 __ 00 ____+1 ____ +1 ______ +2 ____________ (Jun) ___ +8 ___ +10 ___+9 ___ +27 ______ +10 __ +11 __ +9 ___ +30 ______ +57 __ Totals ____________ +13 __ +20 __ +20 ___ +53 ______ +10 __ +12 __ +10 __ +32 ______ +85 Skisheep (Feb) _________ +1 __ +1 ___ +4 ____ +6 ______ +4 __ +3 __+5 ____ +12 ______ +18 NZucker (Feb) _________ +12 __ +9 __ +7 ___ +28 _____ +11 __ +10 __ +9 ___ +30 ______ +58 _________(Mar) ________ +8 __ +7 __ +9 ___ +24 ______ +1 ___ +4 __ +8 ___ +13 ______ +37 __ (Totals) ____________ +20 __ +16 __ +16 __ +52 _____ +12 ___ +14 __ +17 __ +43 ______ +95 Frivolousz21 (Feb) _____ +1 __ +1 ___ +2 ____ +4 ______ +2 __ +1 __+3 ____ +6 ______ +10 Weatherdude (Feb) _____ +7 __ +5 ___ +8 ___ +20 _____ +11 __ +8 __+10 ___ +29 _____ +49 Pottercountywx (Feb) ___ +1 __ +1 ___ +1 ____ +3 ______ +1 __ 00 __+4 _____ +5 ______ +8 _____________(Apr) ___ +1 ___ 00 ___ 00 ____ +1 _______ 00 __ 00 __ 00 ____ 00 _______ +1 ___ Totals ____________ +2 __ +1 ___ +1 ____ +4 _______ +1 __ 0 __ +4 ____ +5 ______ +9 Stormitecture (Mar) ____ 00 __ +1 ___ +2 _____ +3 ______ 00 __ 00 ___ +1 ____ +1 ______ +4 Sacrus (Mar) _________ +8 __ +8 ___ +10 ____ +26 _____ 00 ___ +2 __ +10 ___ +12 _____ +38 Wxhype (Feb) _________ 00 __ 00 ___ +1 ____ +1 ______ +1 __ 00 __+1 ____ +2 ______ +3 ________ (Apr) _______ +3 __ +2 ___ +3 ____ +8 ______ +1 __ +1 __ 00 ____ +2 _____ +10 ________ (May) ______ +9 ___ +7 ___ +8 ____ +24 _____ +5 ___ +6 __ +5 ____ +16 ____ +40 __ (Totals) __________ +12 __ +9 ___ +12 ____ +33 _____ +7 __ +7 __ +6 ____ +20 _____ +53 I.need.snow (Apr) _____ +7 __ +7 ___ +5 ____ +19 _____ +5 __ +5 __ 00 ____ +10 ______ +29 H2OTownWx (May) ___ +6 __ +6 ___ +8 ____ +20 _____ +12 __ +2 __ +4 ___ +18 ______ +38 Chicago Storm (Jun) __ +8 __ +6 ___ +5 ____ +19 _____ +6 __ +8 __+5 ____ +19 ______ +38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted July 11, 2013 Author Share Posted July 11, 2013 Revised scoring table using modified time penalties January to June, see previous post for details <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<< UPDATED ANNUAL SCORING >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> ____________________________ "Classic" _______________ "Expanded" _____________Forecaster ............ ........... DCA ... NYC ... BOS ... (.C.) ... ORD ... ATL ... IAH ... (.E.) .... Total Score________________________________________________________________________________....Annual (cum) values ......... +0.8 .. 0.0 .. +0.8 ........ ... --0.7 .. --0.1 .. +0.1 ...................... Best score awards__________________________________________________________________________________(for months)01 MIDLO SNOW MAKER ..... 440 .. 426 .. 494 .....1360 .... .... 349 .. 392 .. 498 .... 1239 ..... 2599 __BOS,NYC,IAH++EX02 RODNEY S ......................494 .. 448 .. 494 .....1436 .... .... 345 .. 386 ... 426 .... 1157 ..... 2593 ___ CL+ NYC,ORD,ATL 03 DONSUTHERLAND1 ........ 392 .. 424 .. 502 .....1318 .... .... 337 .. 382 .. 424 .... 1143 ...... 2461 _____ BOS,IAH04 WXDUDE64 .................... 460 .. 440 .. 446 .....1346 .... .... 373 .. 316 .. 404 .... 1093 ...... 2439 _____ CL,NYC,305 MN TRANSPLANT ........... 408 .. 492 .. 466 ..... 1366 .... .... 243 .. 357 .. 368 ..... 968 ..... 2334 _____ NYC(06) Consensus ................... 422 .. 428 .. 504 ....1354 .... ..... 267 .. 299 ... 404 ..... 970 ..... 2324_____ DCA,NYC,BOS+ 06 SACRUS ........................ 394 .. 434 .. 476 .....1304 .... .... 324 .. 311 .. 362 ..... 997 ..... 2301 ____ BOS+ORD, 4 07 MALLOW ....................... 406 .. 432 .. 474 .....1312 .... .... 236 .. 346 .. 400 ..... 982 ..... 2294 ___ NYC,ORD,ATL,IAH, 1 (08) Normal ...................... 358 .. 442 .. 452 .....1252 .... .... 326 .. 342 .. 358 .... 1026 ..... 2278 ______ ATL+ NYC 08 SKIERINVERMONT ......... 413 .. 440 .. 465 .... 1318 .... .... 318 .. 328 .. 300 ..... 946 ..... 2264 ______ IAH09 BLAZESS556 .................. 392 .. 394 .. 484 .... 1270 .... .... 339 .. 284 .. 360 ..... 983 ..... 2253 10 SD ................................ 388 .. 440 .. 470 ..... 1298 .... .... 361 .. 266 .. 326 ..... 953 .... 2251 ______ NYC,ORD; EX 11 BKVIKING ....................... 370 .. 372 .. 486 .... 1228 .... .... 350 .. 298 .. 362 .... 1010 ...... 2238 ____ DCA 12 UNCLE W ....................... 348 .. 410 .. 424 .... 1182 .... ... 275 .. 328 .. 384 ..... 987 ..... 2169 ______ ATL 13 STEBO .......................... 366 .. 428 .. 496 ..... 1290 .... .... 310 .. 252 .. 314 ..... 876 ..... 2166 _____ DCA,BOS; CL 14 ELLINWOOD ................... 380 .. 380 .. 456 .... 1216 .... ... 259 .. 313 .. 360 ...... 932 ..... 214815 CHICAGO_WX ................ 374 .. 390 .. 454 .... 1218 .... .... 275 .. 257 .. 362 ..... 894 ..... 2112 ____ CL,DCA,BOS 16 INUDAW ........................ 392 .. 400 .. 510 .... 1302 .... .... 273 .. 207 .. 326 ..... 806 ..... 210817 TOM .............................. 310 .. 388 .. 438 .... 1136 .... .... 327 .. 240 .. 322 ..... 889 ..... 2025 18 H2OTOWN_WX .............. 394 .. 380 .. 441 .... 1215 .... .... 182 .. 293 .. 286 ..... 761 ...... 1976 ______ CL, BOS+ ATL19 ISOTHERM ..................... 368 .. 342 .. 378 .... 1088 .... .... 206 .. 265 .. 410 ..... 881 ...... 1969 ____ EX,BOS, 520 GOOBAGOOBA ............... 356 .. 334 .. 372 .... 1062 .... ... 282 .. 223 .. 346 ..... 851 ..... 1913 ______ DCA 21 ROGER SMITH ................ 336 .. 328 .. 392 .... 1056 .... ... 261 .. 266 .. 298 ..... 825 ..... 1881 NYC,BOS,ORD,ATL,IAH,EX,622 DEREK Z ........................ 322 .. 270 .. 324 ..... 916 .... ... 212 .. 284 .. 366 ..... 862 ..... 1778 ______ EX,ATL23 CHICAGO STORM ........... 322 .. 349 .. 405 .... 1076 .... ... 157 .. 207 .. 308 ..... 672 ..... 1748 24 HUDSONVALLEY21* ...... 334 .. 358 .. 318 .... 1010 .... ... 246 .. 238 .. 248 ..... 732 ...... 174225 WXHYPE ......................... 295 .. 273 .. 305 ..... 873 .... ... 255 .. 244 .. 342 ..... 841 ...... 1714 ___IAH,EX,DCA,ORD 26 NZUCKER* ..................... 265 .. 319 .. 283 ..... 867 .... ... 252 .. 273 .. 299 ..... 824 ..... 1691 _____ NYC27 POTTERCOUNTYWXOBS*. 309 .. 285 .. 345 ..... 939 .... .... 93 .. 173 .. 232 ...... 498 ..... 1437 28 METALICWX366*** .......... 239 .. 235 .. 237 .... 711 .... ... 205 .. 211 .. 172 ..... 588 ..... 129929 SRAIN** .......................... 200 .. 264 .. 320 ..... 784 .... .... 129 .. 156 .. 212 ..... 497 ..... 128130 FRIVOLOUSZ21** ............ 258 .. 225 .. 289 ..... 772 .... ... 175 .. 155 .. 159 ..... 489 ..... 1261 _____ NYC, ORD 31 I.NEED.SNOW*** ........... 249 .. 261 .. 215 ..... 725 .... ... 192 .. 171 .. 132 .... 495 ..... 1220 _____ CL,EX,DCA,ATL,2 32 MR TORCHEY** .............. 242 .. 228 .. 250 ..... 720 .... .... 129 .. 149 .. 188 ..... 466 ..... 1186 _____ BOS, ATL 33 OHLEARY**** .................. 194 ..174 ..184 .... 552 .... ..... 142 .. 168 .. 166 .... 476 .....102834 ANDY HB**** .................. 166 .. 188 .. 170 .... 524 .... ... 100 .. 132 .. 102 ...... 334 ...... 85835 WEATHERDUDE***........... 101 .. 134 .. 183 .... 418 .... ..... 74 ... 98 .. 132 ..... 304 ...... 722 36 CPICK79****.................... 126 ... 78 .. 158 .... 362 .... .... 99 .. 104 .. 86 ..... 289 ....... 65137 SKISHEEP****.................... 66 ... 98 .. 150 .... 314 .... ..... 79 ... 86 .. 138 ...... 303 ..... 61738 BRAD1551****................... 74 .. 118 ..100 ..... 292 .... ..... 64 ... 68 ...162 ..... 294 ...... 586 ______ NYC39 EDUARDO*****.................. 92 ... 88 ... 90 .... 270 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 92 ..... 212 ...... 48240 MIKE VENTRICE***** ........ 66 ... 78 ... 74 .... 218 .... ..... 66 ... 90 ... 82 ..... 238 ...... 45641 QVECTORMAN**** ........... 150 ... 60 ... 82 .... 292 .... ..... 52 ... 68 ... 12 ..... 132 ...... 424 _____ DCA42 B.IRVING*****................... 94 ... 70 ... 96 ..... 260 .... ..... 70 ... 74 ... 12 ..... 156 ...... 41643 ABSOLUTE HUMIDITY***** 80 ... 78 ... 82 ..... 240 .... ..... 25 ... 50 ... 86 ...... 161 ...... 40144 WESTWIND*****............... 44 ... 80 .. 116 .... 240 .... ..... 30 ... 11 .. 112 ...... 153 ...... 39345 LONGISLANDWX*****........ 56 ... 52 ... 82 ..... 190 .... ..... 72 ... 28 ... 90 ...... 190 ...... 38046 BRIAN 5671***** ............... 68 ... 96 ... 68 ..... 232 .... ..... 36 ... 72 ... 18 ..... 126 ...... 35847 HOCKEYINC*****................ 64 ... 38 ... 68 ..... 170 .... ..... 88 ... 44 ... 28 ..... 160 ...... 33048 NYCSUBURBS*****............. 58 ... 84 ... 72 ..... 214 .... ..... 14 ... 32 ... 62 ..... 108 ...... 32249 STORMITECTURE*****........ 29 ... 55 ... 94 ..... 179 .... ..... 02 ... 00 ... 74 ..... 076 ..... 25550 SHADES*****...................... 32 ... 60 ... 46 ..... 138 .... .... 00 ... 18 ... 82 ..... 100 ...... 238 51 TSTEEL*****....................... 20 ... 40 ... 40 ..... 100 .... ..... 54 ... 13 ... 42 ..... 109 ...... 20952 WHITEOUTMD*****............ 24 ... 30 ... 40 ..... 094 .... ..... 26 ... 02 ... 72 ..... 100 ...... 19453 CANDYMANCOLUMBUSGA***** 30 . 28 . 32 .... 090 .... .... 40 ... 00 ... 60 ..... 100 ...... 19054 69APORCUPINE***** .......... 02 ... 00 ... 06 ..... 008 .... ..... 00 ... 12 ... 12 ..... 024 ...... 03255 OKIE333***** .................... 00 ... 00 ... 10 ..... 010 .... ..... 00 ... 00 ... 00 ..... 000 ...... 010_____________________________________________________________________________________* asterisks show how many months a forecaster has missed ... no asterisk, has been in every month"Best score" awards are listed first by cumulative best scores from this table, and then by all best scores for stations and groups every month entered.Monthly winners so far are Mallow (Jan) I.need.snow (Feb) wxdude64 (Mar) Sacrus (Apr), Isotherm (May) and Roger Smith (June). This is coded into the table by number of the month (in the monthly column). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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