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May 27-June 2 Severe Weather


Hoosier

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Yeah, nice writeup. LOT makes a good point about the moist air...the 12z ILX ob had dewpoints around 15C up through 850 mb which is pretty impressive especially for May. Given the moist low levels and all the clouds limiting heating today, instability should be very slow to drop off tonight.

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yeah, nice disco, not surprised to read they are favoring south closer to I80.  Should see some decent training down that way.

yeah....kept waiting for the moisture transport to chill out today, but it really never shut off...PWAT's have been trending back up...CAPE increasing still despite the cloud cover as well...looks to be a noisy night with a nice chance at some interesting wind threats....as you said, coma would make things even more interesting

 

EDIT:  Meso maintenance looks pretty solid as well leading in front of what's developing in N Mizzu and S Iowa

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Sitting at 78/70 here...very thick feeling. Our sunshine is probably going to get cutoff soon. This thick air is concerning...low lcl's and/or heavy rain potential again...not needed. Best potential here for severe seems focused on muscatine, aledo, burlington, geneseo, and washington iowa area I think. We'll see... Thursday looking interesting.

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I worked a morning shift today at LOT. Expecting to get called back in to help out in a few hours. The temperatures rising to the 70s/near 80 despite all the cloud cover is a testament to the quality of the air mass, one we've pretty rarely seen in place with good shear since I've been out here. We'll see what happens.

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I worked a morning shift today at LOT. Expecting to get called back in to help out in a few hours. The temperatures rising to the 70s/near 80 despite all the cloud cover is a testament to the quality of the air mass, one we've pretty rarely seen in place with good shear since I've been out here. We'll see what happens.

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excellent....good luck in the office if you get called in....could get spicey

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Given the mid level lapse rates moving in aloft, explosive updraft development along that boundary is more than enough for some tornadic potential. That's also going to lead to some awfully large hail. Mesoanalysis is already showing CAPE in the -10 to -30 C layer approaching 1000 J/kg across southeastern IA.

 

Of course, not needed is the deep, moist air mass. Warm cloud depths approaching 12 kft and storms training along that boundary will produce some efficient heavy rainfall.

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78/66 here IMBY. Filtered sunshine. I keep thinking of Utica IL 4/20/04 whenever there's the possibility of severe storms connected with warm fronts.

As I recall that wasnt a particular warm day, around 70, but it was very humid with lots of instability South of that storm feeding into it.

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Finally seeing some breaks in the clouds on the far east side, however that annoying training line of convection keeps blowing clouds back. 

We have clouded back over here, although I can see more clearing to the West of here.

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