A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Sun should start peeking out soon in northern Illinois chicago area. Im already seeing it to clear out a little to my west of dupage It will be short lived as the warm sector is clouding over quickly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 That area of rain and thunderstorms moving through Southwest Michigan at the current time just happened to split, it's headed north and south of me which puts me in a good area for later on with clearing after this line.. We're sitting at a solid temperature of 72° right now so it's not going to take much to push 80 once this passes by. Yeah, also with the temps staying in the upper 70s and the dew points in the upper 60s should help the potential of tornadoes with the LCL heights staying lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 It will be short lived as the warm sector is clouding over quickly Yeah I see that. But im ok getting some heat from the sun for an hour, on and off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Impressive sigtor ingredients since they changed the equation - especially in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Impressive sigtor ingredients since they changed the equation - especially in MI. So it did get changed again? I had been wondering this for a week, as I hadn't seen anything officially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looks good LB... I'd like to say I have some hope for the GRR/DTX areas. I especially like what I see over southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa. That shortwave should really blossom once it's over this way. On a side note. It poured downtown BC. A few smaller cells popped just west of the main line. Flint/Detroit, look out its headed your way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Still 72 IMBY tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 4KM SPC-WRF blow up vigorous convection over Northern IL into SW MI around 22z and moves it across Southern Lower MI through the evening, this is the convection that would be associated with the shortwave across Iowa and is what would concern me with respect to severe weather and potential tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looks good LB... I'd like to say I have some hope for the GRR/DTX areas. I especially like what I see over southern Wisconsin and eastern Iowa. That shortwave should really blossom once it's over this way. On a side note. It poured downtown BC. A few smaller cells popped just west of the main line. Flint/Detroit, look out its headed your way. If we get any more convection around here tonight, flooding issues will really ramp up, especially with Thursday and/or Friday potentially bringing more heavy rain. Temp and dewpoint rapidly rising atm, which was bound to happen given we were stuck around 50F early this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I'm really impressed with how today is looking. There really isn't anything that I could mention that no one else has mentioned here other than saying people in Michigan should prepare for what could be a wild night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Oh yikes, check out the 2-5km max UH's on the 12Z SPC WRF...right over the BC area and into SE MI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Oh yikes, check out the 2-5km max UH's on the 12Z SPC WRF...right over the BC area and into SE MI O__o wild night might be an understatement, could be dangerous for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Oh yikes, check out the 2-5km max UH's on the 12Z SPC WRF...right over the BC area and into SE MI Impressive...right around sunset, too. Could be some photogenic storms if things unfold similarly to what this is suggesting. That's decent terrain, although you do have the Irish Hills in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Anybody thinking about chasing today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 So it did get changed again? I had been wondering this for a week, as I hadn't seen anything officially. Look at the bottom...it's still the easier thresholds of 500 MLCAPE and 1.5 km or less LCL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Quite a few clouds along the warm front no doubt. If it was a mostly sunny afternoon up here, I'd say severe wx could pop. Too many clouds as it looks now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Look at the bottom...it's still the easier thresholds of 500 MLCAPE and 1.5 km or less LCL. So it didn't change back? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Quite a few clouds along the warm front no doubt. If it was a mostly sunny afternoon up here, I'd say severe wx could pop. Too many clouds as it looks now. Forecast soundings have been putting out decent instability using temps of 77-80 and dews in the upper 60s. The closer to or exceeding of those numbers would likely raise severe chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 To all those remarking about too many clouds, I want you to please keep the following dates in mind: 4/20/04 6/7/08 6/5/10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 So it didn't change back? Doesn't look like it unless they changed it and forgot to change the text. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Forecast soundings have been putting out decent instability using temps of 77-80 and dews in the upper 60s. The closer to or exceeding of those numbers would likely raise severe chances. To all those remarking about too many clouds, I want you to please keep the following dates in mind: 4/20/04 6/7/08 6/5/10 Yes to both of these posts, the fact is it is already warm and moist in most locations near the warm front and there is still filtered sunshine, temps don't have very far to go to reach near 80 across most locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Pockets of 2000 surfaced based CAPE popping up around I 80 in IL and Iowa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Doesn't look like it unless they changed it and forgot to change the text. Yeah, that might be the case as the values seem underdone compared to the previous formula and have been since Mid May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 To all those remarking about too many clouds, I want you to please keep the following dates in mind: 4/20/04 6/7/08 6/5/10 I think all 3 of those had late clearing/breaks...well, I know 04 and 10 did but having a harder time remembering 08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 To all those remarking about too many clouds, I want you to please keep the following dates in mind: 4/20/04 6/7/08 6/5/10 It's true, clouds are not nearly as much of a hindrance as crapvection, as temps and dews have still been proven to rise in those conditions. Also, if we can have impressive garden variety t'storms after constant 50F temps and clouds/drizzle/fog, Chicago can still see good storms on a day with cloudiness around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think all 3 of those had late clearing/breaks...well, I know 04 and 10 did but having a harder time remembering 08. '08 was pretty socked, at least where I was in Schererville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 To all those remarking about too many clouds, I want you to please keep the following dates in mind: 4/20/04 6/7/08 6/5/10 6/7/08 there was two severe t-storm warnings and a tornado warning here, so yeah... I guess clouds don't matter too much in every setup. Next day was pretty nasty too, with 3 severe t-storm warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 6/7/08 there was two severe t-storm warnings and a tornado warning here, so yeah... I guess clouds don't matter too much in every setup. Next day was pretty nasty too, with 3 severe t-storm warnings. Not to mention, oh, the 4 stovepipe-wedge tornadoes in Will County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 To all those remarking about too many clouds, I want you to please keep the following dates in mind: 4/20/04 6/7/08 6/5/10 Yes thank you sir. It is crazy muggy here, sun most of the day and I saw tornadoes on two of those days listed. This is a classic setup for these parts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 In any case, there looks to be a couple of hours of clearing in Southern MI after this line rolls through. Don't think the line is organized enough to really stabilize the atmosphere, either. The southern two tiers of counties in MI are close to getting primed, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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