A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 definitely have our work cut out for us....weakening trends via the QC radar are encouraging.....it doesn't have the overly-stabilized feel to it outside currently....guess we shall see....the race is on I think we'll have forcing problems as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Not real confident things will work out but going to head down to Illinois, somewhere between Rockford and Peru after I get off work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think we'll have forcing problems as well yeah, agree....there are some boundaries out there...but whether or not they will be enough, or where they end up is tough to gauge man that 850 moisture transport is pretty sick....if things can pop late afternoon it could be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 yeah, agree....there are some boundaries out there...but whether or not they will be enough, or where they end up is tough to gauge man that 850 moisture transport is pretty sick....if things can pop late afternoon it could be interesting It's pretty muggy, but I think the show will be well east today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 It's pretty muggy, but I think the show will be well east today. yeah, we are kind of in no man's land in the chi-metro as it stands right now....some parameters will be in place for severe...we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Given, of course, that we clear out today, this is really really impressive by the RAP (valid around Warren): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 we're slowly building CAPE despite persistent overcast...although some partial clearing is pushig into the state. It looks like we'll have a minor disturbance move in from northern MO and southern IA by this evening and the HRRR does fire some storms with this but it's not overly impressive. EDIT: hi-res NAM also developes convection this afternoon along I80, still not sure why LOT has higher pops north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Given, of course, that we clear out today, this is really really impressive by the RAP (valid around Warren): Partial clearing south into Monroe but north of 94 its pea soup thick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 repeat of last weeks fail and hype here.. cool Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 repeat of last weeks fail and hype here.. cool pretty much, we'll try again in a few days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Lets save the bust calls for later, it is only 11AM out that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 repeat of last weeks fail and hype here.. cool was just thinking of this as well....only difference I see is that DP's are recovering nicely behind the pile of clouds in NW IL and areas around that this time....last week the moisture transport became almost completely shut off....doesn't seem to be the case thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Lets save the bust calls for later, it is only 11AM out that way... MKE isn't even in the slight risk...this is an i80 and south event...like it has been for 48 hours + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 its 11 am and I know my severe weather chances are tucked away. I didn't say anything about fail in others back yards. Had a few good cracks of thunder this early am so I'm all set until more craptastic rain moves in in a few days. 2 weeks of dry and boring would be nice but I don't envision that being the case for some time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 DTX's update is pretty much spot on for what I am seeing unfold for the region/locally 900 MB SEGMENT OF THE WARM FRONTAL SLOPE PROGRESSIVELY ADVANCINGACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN LATE THIS MORNING. 15Z SFC ANALYSISPLACES THE ACTUAL SURFACE REFLECTION JUST OUTSIDE THE FORECASTAREA...ARCING ROUGHLY FROM TOLEDO TO BATTLE CREEK TO HOLLAND.SUSTAINED MOIST ASCENT UP THE ELEVATED SLAB ANCHORED ON STEADY850-925MB 20-30KT SOUTHWEST FLOW SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR MODERATERAINFALL AND EMBEDDED THUNDER ACROSS THE REGION. THIS PRECIPITATIONSHIELD WILL PROGRESS ACROSS AREAS EAST OF I-75 AND NORTH OF I-69OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. SOME HEALTHY RAINFALL AMOUNTS CAN BEEXPECTED WITH THIS FIRST ROUND...RECENT REPORTS OF A QUICK INCHWITHIN THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS.SURFACE WARM FRONT WILL PROGRESSIVELY MIGRATE NORTHEAST AND INTOTHE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THIS LEAD MOISTURE PLUME THIS AFTERNOON.FOCUS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY REMAINS ON DEFINING THEPOSSIBLE SCALE...MAGNITUDE AND OVERALL LOCATION OF ADDITIONALCONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WITHIN AN EXPANDING AND GRADUALLY MODULATINGUPSTREAM WARM SECTOR ENVIRONMENT. UPSTREAM WATER VAPOR ANALYSISREVEALS AT LEAST ONE REMNANT MCV TRACKING ACROSS SOUTH LAKEMICHIGAN...WITH A TRAILING BUT SLIGHTLY MORE VIGOROUS LOOKINGWAVE AND ASSOCIATED LOW LEVEL JETLET LIFTING OUT OF EASTERN IOWA.THE DOWNSTREAM AIRMASS SHOWING SIGNS OF SOME GRADUAL BOUNDARYLAYER DESTABILIZATION...AIDED BY THE INFUSION OF LOW-MID 60SDEWPOINTS AND SOME BREAKS IN THE LINGERING MID LEVEL CLOUD. THEEFFICIENCY OF THIS PROCESS GOING FORWARD THIS AFTERNOONESSENTIALLY HOLDS THE KEY TO OUR PROSPECTS OF GENERATING SEVERECONVECTION. LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY CONCERNS ASIDE...THE UPTICK INLARGE SCALE FORCING TIED TO THE INBOUND MCV COINCIDENT WITH THEPEAK HEATING CYCLE WILL SUPPORT AN EXPANSION IN SHOWER ANDTHUNDERSTORM...AND EASTWARD EXTRAPOLATION OF CURRENT RADAR IMAGERYYIELDING AN ARRIVAL TIME OF 18-20Z. RECENT HI RES/HRRR SOLUTIONSLOCKING IN ON THIS FEATURE...WHILE THEN ALLOWING ADDITIONAL MOREDISCRETE CELLS TO EMERGE IN IT/S WAKE ACROSS NORTHWESTIN/SOUTHWEST LOWER MI AFTER 20Z...PERHAPS TIED TO THE TRAILINGEASTERN IOWA SHORTWAVE. THE BACKGROUND WIND FIELD YIELDS ASUFFICIENTLY STRONG 0-6 KM DEEP LAYER SHEAR TO MAINTAIN ORGANIZEDCONVECTION...SHOULD BETTER LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY EMERGE. INADDITION TO THE INHERENT HIGH WIND GUST THREAT...THE PRESENCE OFTHE WARM FRONT IN AN ENVIRONMENT WITH LOWERED LCL HEIGHTS ANDHEIGHTENED LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES WILL MAINTAIN THE POSSIBILITYOF WEAK TORNADOGENESIS WITHIN ANY DISCRETE CELLS. The stuff that interests me greatly is the cells that look to form off of the shortwave currently back in Iowa, those could be the ones with the tornado potential as they move in the vicinity of the warm front that is lifting Northward into the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 The stuff that interests me greatly is the cells that look to form off of the shortwave currently back in Iowa, those could be the ones with the tornado potential as they move in the vicinity of the warm front that is lifting Northward into the area. that won't even get north of I80, much less into Michigan. PIA to IKK is the only interesting play today IMO and even that is pretty meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 that won't even get north of I80, much less into Michigan. PIA to IKK is the only interesting play today IMO and even that is pretty meh It is moving Northeast not East and it is already in the Northern half of Iowa, I don't think you are looking at the right thing if you are focusing that far South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Warm front on the move north in the QC area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 SPC put out a MCD for the MCV moving into Michigan, the warm sector isn't up far enough so these storms should remain elevated however the stuff that fires behind them won't be. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0836 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1054 AM CDT TUE MAY 28 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...SRN LOWER MI AND PARTS OF FAR NRN IND AND FAR NWRN OH CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 281554Z - 281730Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF LOWER MI...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS MOVING ACROSS NRN IND AND FAR NWRN OH INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW SEVERE STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN LOWER MI...BUT UNCERTAINTY IN OVERALL COVERAGE OF THE SEVERE THREAT PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A WATCH AT THIS TIME. THIS REGION WILL BE MONITORED FOR STRONGER DESTABILIZATION PRIOR TO TSTM PASSAGE. DISCUSSION...TRENDS IN LATE MORNING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT ADVANCING NNEWD ACROSS SRN LOWER MI...WITH THIS BOUNDARY AT 15Z EXTENDING SEWD FROM NEAR OTTAWA COUNTY MI TO FAR SERN LOWER MI /20 S KDTW/. SLY WINDS ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR ARE SPREADING MOISTURE NWD BENEATH THE ERN EXTENT OF THE EML WHERE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE AROUND 7 C/KM...RESULTING IN MARGINAL INSTABILITY /MUCAPE AROUND 500 J PER KG/ SO FAR. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA INDICATED BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOWING FOR ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/DESTABILIZATION INTO THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN INCREASE IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT SINCE 15Z INLAND FROM THE ERN/SERN COAST OF LAKE MICHIGAN. THIS ACTIVITY IS TRACKING EWD AT 40 KT AND WILL REACH ERN/SERN LOWER MI BY 18-19Z. THESE STORMS APPEAR TO BE SUPPORTED BY FORCING FOR ASCENT ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A PROGRESSIVE MCV MOVING INTO SRN LOWER MI...WHERE THE AIR MASS IS GRADUALLY DESTABILIZING. ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS INCREASING TO AID IN STORM ORGANIZATION...THE EWD SPEED OF THE ONGOING STORMS COULD OUT PACE THE WARM SECTOR DESTABILIZATION...SUCH THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LIMITED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Warm front on the move north in the QC area? Yeah it is starting to progress northward, you can see where the warm front is located in the surface obs. It is just South of the QC right now, with very good moisture just South of it, dew points in the upper 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think the HRRR has a decent handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looks like the main part of this line may split the Detroit Metro Area, could set things up nicely for later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looks like the main part of this line may split the Detroit Metro Area, could set things up nicely for later in the day. Yeah I am passing on the MCV stuff for stuff later, it looks to go North of the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yeah it is starting to progress northward, you can see where the warm front is located in the surface obs. It is just South of the QC right now, with very good moisture just South of it, dew points in the upper 60s. Are you sure? There's almost no difference in temp between Rockford, for example, and the rest of Illinois, and even some locations north of the warm front still have dews in the low to mid 60s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Are you sure? There's almost no difference in temp between Rockford, for example, and the rest of Illinois, and even some locations north of the warm front still have dews in the low to mid 60s. Compared to the mid 70 temps and upper 60 dews to the South, yes I am sure. It does bulge up a bit in IL but it isn't in WI yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Compared to the mid 70 temps and upper 60 dews to the South, yes I am sure. It does bulge up a bit in IL but it isn't in WI yet. there are a couple warm fronts, but yeah the one that matters is well south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 there are a couple warm fronts, but yeah the one that matters is well south It is only a couple counties away from Chicago and moving Northward nicely, I don't think you have to worry as much as you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 It is only a couple counties away from Chicago and moving Northward nicely, I don't think you have to worry as much as you are. meh, prospects for garden variety storms look decent, severe threat is pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Sun should start peeking out soon in northern Illinois chicago area. Im already seeing it to clear out a little to my west of dupage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 That area of rain and thunderstorms moving through Southwest Michigan at the current time just happened to split, it's headed north and south of me which puts me in a good area for later on with clearing after this line.. We're sitting at a solid temperature of 72° right now so it's not going to take much to push 80 once this passes by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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