Central Illinois Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Best threat for this subforum may be developing near the Jacksonville/Springfield/Decatur/Watseka/Rensselaer/Lafayette areas where it seems we're getting that differential heating zone is setting up from the decaying MCC. The HRRR image I posted earlier seems to match that fairly well. within the past 20 mins we've been starting to get peaks of sun just SE of Decatur Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Been active around here today. 3 really heavy downpours with the last coming from a warned storm. I'm in the 30% area tomorrow so could be a lot worse day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Seems like too much crap-vection leftovers today. Sun comes and cumulus start to build and then dissipate as new filaments of mid-level clouds roll in. Best thunderstorm chances pushing off into MI and IN tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Alek needs a PRO FORECASTER tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 ILX radar shows convection intensifying from SW to NE along a line NW of the radar site, probably due to arrival of jet disturbance. As low-level shear ramps up, I'm starting to think areas along/SE of a line from VPZ-IKK-PNT-BMI still very much in play for wind/a tornado. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Seems like too much crap-vection leftovers today. Sun comes and cumulus start to build and then dissipate as new filaments of mid-level clouds roll in. Best thunderstorm chances pushing off into MI and IN tomorrow? I'm punting with this setup. So many days with thunder in the forecast but it just wasn't meant to be. I'm predicting a massive complex over Missouri and central Illinois will cut off the moisture supply to all areas further north and it will be a boring stratiform rain event if anything. Then the massive cloud debris from tonight's MCS will be ruining anything for tomorrow afternoon. I much prefer a stronger ridge setup with a cap keeping a lid on the MS valley, preserving the EML and steeper mid-level lapse rates even after dark. Only in that setting can the good instability actually reach this far north without being cut off and used up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Alek needs a PRO FORECASTER tag. Dude had it nailed at 6 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Dude had it nailed at the 6 this morning. Yeah when he is in the zone there is not many better especially in his neck of the forum.. Heck if they handed out a PF tag to Big Jims Beef Sticks and Eskimo Pie Joe then there is at least a handful of posters in this sub-forum worthy of a pro tag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 75/70 in springfield il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 75/70 in springfield il77/72 just SE of DecaturSent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Mesoanalysis shows eff sig tor rapidly rising and expanding into central and NE IL. Cells near BMI starting to show signs of rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 ILX radar shows convection intensifying from SW to NE along a line NW of the radar site, probably due to arrival of jet disturbance. As low-level shear ramps up, I'm starting to think areas along/SE of a line from VPZ-IKK-PNT-BMI still very much in play for wind/a tornado. Seems about right...that area near BMI just got warned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 NW IL really clearing out nicely...may be too little too late? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 ILN's take on severe tonight and tomorrow. They mention all modes possible tomorrow with enough instability. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH 512 PM EDT FRI MAY 31 2013 . SYNOPSIS... A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION. COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN FOR THE START OF THE NEW WEEK...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. && . NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/... A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION CONTINUES ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE INSTABILITY BUT QUITE A BIT OF WIND ENERGY THANKS TO A STRONG 850MB JET. FURTHER TO THE SOUTHWEST...A VERY OBVIOUS MCV IS ROTATING INTO NORTHERN KENTUCKY. ALTHOUGH THIS IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK INSTABILITY...WIND SHEAR (ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW LEVELS) IS ENHANCED NEAR THIS FEATURE. SO...STORMS WILL HAVE TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY HOSTILE FOR ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THESE FEATURES...SO THERE SHOULD BE A BREAK IN THE ACTION BEFORE ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. NUMEROUS HIGH-RES MODELS INDICATE THAT CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVER MISSOURI AND ILLINOIS WILL MAKE A RUN FOR THE ILN CWA OVERNIGHT. AS IT WILL BE MOVING INTO A LESS FAVORABLE AIR MASS...SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ENTIRELY LIKELY. GIVEN THE WINDS AND MOISTURE OVERNIGHT...MIN TEMPS WERE KEPT UP IN THE UPPER 60S FOR THE ENTIRE CWA. && . SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/... ANY CONVECTION THAT MAY HAVE IMPACTED THE REGION OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE BY SATURDAY MORNING...BUT BUILDING MOISTURE TO THE WEST OF THE ILN CWA WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL CLOUD...SHOWER...AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT (EVEN IN THE MORNING HOURS). THE NORTHWEST PORTION OF THE CWA WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE FOR OFF AND ON SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR MUCH OF THE DAY...WHILE PERIODS OF CLEARING AND EVEN SOME BREAKS OF SUN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA. THIS WILL LEAD TO MODEST DESTABILIZATION...BUT THE DEGREE OF THIS DESTABILIZATION IS VERY MUCH ONE OF THE CHALLENGES FOR THE FORECAST TOMORROW. MEANWHILE...SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE...AND WILL BE ONE OF THE MORE FAVORABLE SEVERE WEATHER PARAMETERS FOR THE DAY (40-45 KNOTS 0-6KM BULK SHEAR...AND AROUND 20-25 KNOTS 0-1KM). ALOFT...THE CWA WILL BE NEAR THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPPER JET. HODOGRAPHS REMAIN IN THE UPPER RIGHT QUADRANT...BUT WITH STORM MOTION FACTORED IN...HELICITY VALUES WILL NOT BE NEGLIGIBLE. THE TIMING OF THE GREATEST POPS APPEARS TO BE IN THE EVENING AND FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS THE CWA...AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE GREATEST SEVERE THREAT WILL BE OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT (IF DISCRETE OR CLUSTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS) AND THEN PERHAPS CLOSER TO THE FRONT IF A SQUALL LINE OR QLCS MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE AREA AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH DIURNAL TIMING TO PUT THE CWA IN A RELATIVELY FAVORABLE AREA FOR SEVERE WEATHER...ESPECIALLY WHERE INSTABILITY WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO BE A BIT HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS. THIS THREAT HAS BEEN HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO. PROVIDED THAT ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS ABLE TO DEVELOP...ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT ON THE SSW FLOW...SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE EXPECTED. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL GET WELL ABOVE 1.50"...POSSIBLY AS HIGH AS 2.00"...OVER 150 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. POPS WILL BE HELD A BIT INTO THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AS THE FRONT GRADUALLY MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE CWA. INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED BY THIS POINT...AS A MUCH DRIER AND COOLER AIR MASS TAKES OVER. MOST OF THE MODELS ALSO INDICATE SOME LIGHT POST-FRONTAL PRECIPITATION...SO CLOUDS AND SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS WERE HELD BACK THROUGH MOST OF THE AFTERNOON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I'm punting with this setup. So many days with thunder in the forecast but it just wasn't meant to be. I'm predicting a massive complex over Missouri and central Illinois will cut off the moisture supply to all areas further north and it will be a boring stratiform rain event if anything. Then the massive cloud debris from tonight's MCS will be ruining anything for tomorrow afternoon. I much prefer a stronger ridge setup with a cap keeping a lid on the MS valley, preserving the EML and steeper mid-level lapse rates even after dark. Only in that setting can the good instability actually reach this far north without being cut off and used up. Yeah you're probably right. It's a clear trend that convection is favoring areas over central IL and IN more. 50% chance in my point and click forecast. Probably end up being lowered down this evening again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 520 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHICAGO HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN FORD COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... WESTERN IROQUOIS COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SOUTH CENTRAL KANKAKEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST ILLINOIS... SOUTHEASTERN LIVINGSTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 630 PM CDT * AT 518 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF FAIRBURY TO FAIRBURY TO 6 MILES EAST OF COLFAX...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. HAZARD...QUARTER SIZE HAIL AND 70 MPH WIND GUSTS. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES AND CROPS IS EXPECTED. EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. WIND DAMAGE IS ALSO LIKELY TO MOBILE HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. * SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE NEAR... FORREST AROUND 525 PM CDT. CULLOM AND CHATSWORTH AROUND 535 PM CDT. PIPER CITY AROUND 545 PM CDT. BUCKLEY AROUND 555 PM CDT. ONARGA AND GILMAN AROUND 600 PM CDT. CISSNA PARK AND CLIFTON AROUND 605 PM CDT. OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE STRAWN...SIBLEY...SAUNEMIN... MELVIN...KEMPTON...ROBERTS...CABERY...THAWVILLE...DANFORTH AND IRWIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The airmass overhead has really re-destabilized in spite of the round of t'storms earlier and the cloud cover (across the entire state in fact). When I was outside after the t'storms earlier, the air didn't have that "it just stormed" feel to it, rather it had that feel that this was only a prelude of what's to come in terms of t'storm activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Clear line finally visible just to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Warning update from LOT is mentioning 80 mph winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Spc about to issue tornado watch for E MO and C IL Sent from my iPhone 5 using Tapatalk! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 0529 PM TSTM WND DMG CHATSWORTH 40.75N 88.29W 05/31/2013 LIVINGSTON IL LAW ENFORCEMENT NUMEROUS TREES BEING REPORTED DOWN. A SEMI WAS REPORTED FLIPPED OVER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 anybody in the Naperville area....there is a sweet deck of mammatus rolling over right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for northern Indiana. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0264.html Didn't expect to get missed to the north this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Tornado warning for central/north St. Louis metro and a bit further SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frostfern Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Yeah you're probably right. It's a clear trend that convection is favoring areas over central IL and IN more. 50% chance in my point and click forecast. Probably end up being lowered down this evening again. I'd just like a good lightning show for once. Not even hopeful for that now. The better setups for this far north require more of a cap to the south. These SW flow events are always kind of meh for instability this far north. Hopefully June and July will have some ridge rollers with lots of lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Tornado Watch issued for east-central Illinois. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0265.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 TDSwjtg that st. Charles cell. Strong couplet with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 TDSwjtg that st. Charles cell. Strong couplet with it. TWC is following the St. Louis situation closely now. What a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted June 1, 2013 Share Posted June 1, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted June 1, 2013 Author Share Posted June 1, 2013 Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued for northern Indiana. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0264.html Didn't expect to get missed to the north this evening. If this doesn't develop south into LAF, then attention turns to the area around STL to see if it can develop further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.