wisconsinwx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 There's still a shortwave over N Missouri that MKX is expecting to swing N/NE and affect S Wisconsin and N Illinois. I wouldn't say severe weather threat is high, but threat of convection is, especially for N Illinois. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 dewpoint down to 60 at MDW...much better air trying to advect north now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 64° dewpoint west suburbs in dupage county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 clouded over now so it looks like we'll have a hard time realizing anything beyond modest instability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 clouded over now so it looks like we'll have a hard time realizing anything beyond modest instability. We'll see. The actual rain shield is trudging at best and weakening as it goes. Higher mid-level lapse rates are advecting across MO and the MS river at this time behind the cloud shield. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I still think things are going to be very interesting later today into this evening....if anything, there may be more random boundaries in place after this little complex washes through...if it does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Dew point actually rose a little past hour. Just need this little complex to continue to weaken and get some clearer skies by 3pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yeah, there's plenty of moisture in the soil that can be tapped if we can get some solid clearing by 3 or so....unless the complex pulls drier air behind it this far east.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Oakland county has been killing it... What, 5 tstorm warnings now in the past 3 days? Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Think cloud deck across much of the area. Potential looks meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yeah it's really clouded over here as well. Can just see the outline of the sun at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 My hunch is its going to clear out by 2pm. Sun will be heating up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 12z SPC WRF clobbers the LAF area later. Little confidence with how things evolve though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 12z SPC WRF clobbers the LAF area later. Little confidence with how things evolve though. I liked Champaign to LAF earlier and still do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 DVN... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL1231 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013.UPDATE...ISSUED AT 1220 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013THE TWO SEPARATE MCS COMPLEXES HAVE MERGED AS EXPECTED. THUS THESOUTHEAST HALF OF THE CWFA HAS THE BETTER CHANCE AT SEEINGMODERATE RAIN WITH POSSIBLY VERY LOCALIZED HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGHTHE AFTERNOON HOURS.NEW CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN CENTRAL IOWA DUE TO CONVERGENCE OFTHE WIND FIELD. THE MCS/LIFT TOOLS ARE SUGGESTING THIS NEWCONVECTION WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE CWFA BUT MAYREMAIN WEAK. THE MCS MAY INDUCE NEW CONVECTION IN FAR NORTHWESTILLINOIS IN AREAS ALONG/EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI.THE KEY TO CONVECTIVE TRENDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE WHETHER OR NOTCONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IS ACHIEVED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS PLACE THECONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE IN THE UPPER 70S WHICH IS THE CURRENT FCSTMAX TEMPERATURE FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONGER STORMS MAY BEPOSSIBLE IF STRONGER DIFFERENTIAL HEATING CAN OCCUR ACROSS THEAREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Moisture field definitely took a hit. 12z ILX sounding had 850 mb dewpoints around 8C and DVN was 4C. We'll see if anyone is doing an 18z launch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yea its not happening around here today...temp dropped back, very cool wind blowing. I suppose the central Iowa stuff could take off but I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Moisture field definitely took a hit. 12z ILX sounding had 850 mb dewpoints around 8C and DVN was 4C. We'll see if anyone is doing an 18z launch. SGF did one, OUN's is in progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 LOT just punted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 There is a squall line heading in my direction, hopefully its severe: Watches out by Environment Canada for a good part of southern Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Well, Alek, good for you in your forecast call. I agree that Champaign to LAF could get interesting later tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 LOT just punted Pockets of thinning on visible satellite in that area. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few places closing in on 80 on the 2 PM obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Pockets of thinning on visible satellite in that area. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few places closing in on 80 on the 2 PM obs. The more clouds I see roll in down here, the more the sun starts to peak out and shine....really weird....Definitely feel things getting muggier, not sure if it will be enough or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0906 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0212 PM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MN...NRN/CNTRL WI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 311912Z - 312115Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THIS AFTERNOON. LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY THREATS BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...BENEATH A BAND OF MID-LEVEL CONVECTION THAT HAS BEEN EMANATING NEWD ACROSS NERN IA INTO NWRN WI...SURFACE-BASED TSTMS HAVE BEGUN TO INITIATE ACROSS THE TWIN CITIES METRO AREA. A PLUME OF MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS HAS HELD DOWNSTREAM OF THIS DEVELOPMENT. MODIFIED FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THIS MOISTURE PLUME ALONG WITH STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS CONTRIBUTING TO A FAIRLY LARGE BUOYANCY PROFILE DESPITE MLCAPE ONLY AROUND 1000-1500 J/KG. SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR EXISTS FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION...BUT FLOW WEAKENS WITH HEIGHT IN THE MID/UPPER-LEVELS WHERE CONVECTION IS DEVELOPING ACROSS E-CNTRL MN/NWRN WI. MORE FAVORABLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FARTHER E/SE...SUGGESTING LONGEVITY OF SUPERCELLS WOULD BE GREATER HERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 here in the north end of st paul, nothing. but west of me on the U of M St Paul Campus, quarter-sized hail. up to 1.25" hail in roseville, i think near snelling. storms are pretty much all the way up and down i-35 between duluth and the north twin cities metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Clearing out and heating up here. Could make for an interesting early evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Best threat for this subforum may be developing near the Jacksonville/Springfield/Decatur/Watseka/Rensselaer/Lafayette areas where it seems we're getting that differential heating zone is setting up from the decaying MCC. The HRRR image I posted earlier seems to match that fairly well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0261.html and a watch is issued, from INL and MCW to CMX and MSN, including AUW, LSE, EAU, and just north of ALO. hail and gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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