A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The complex around KC needs to die fairly quickly, otherwise this event is a bust for some of us. Doesn't look like its going away anytime soon though. Major severe threat is done IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Major severe threat is done IMO The bust call is coming out at 6AM? Did you actually look at the models and see that the moisture is lifting North behind that initial line, plus that second complex could actually grow and be your major threat for the day or that stuff can form behind it later in the day which several models show? I mean having a hunch is one thing but usually bust calls are saved for after noon at least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The bust call is coming out at 6AM? Did you actually look at the models and see that the moisture is lifting North behind that initial line, plus that second complex could actually grow and be your major threat for the day? I mean having a hunch is one thing but usually bust calls are saved for after noon at least... There is no bust call...it's a slight risk low prob event as is in the SPC's eyes....there is nothing to bust. The best moisture return is hung up south of that complex and it's heading into an increasingly stable environment over southern IA and western IL. It may sustain itself but it's going to be a junky elevated mess. Chicagoland will not see widespread severe weather. Feel free to bump if and when I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 There is no bust call...it's a slight risk low prob event as is in the SPC's eyes....there is nothing to bust. The best moisture return is hung up south of that complex and it's heading into an increasingly stable environment over southern IA and western IL. It may sustain itself but it's going to be a junky elevated mess. Chicagoland will not see widespread severe weather. Feel free to bump if and when I'm wrong. Once again 6AM, a lot of things can and will change over the next 12 hours... I'm not saying Chicago is having widespread severe weather either but I am not eliminating the chances of severe weather this early either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Once again 6AM, a lot of things can and will change over the next 12 hours... I'm not saying Chicago is having widespread severe weather either but I am not eliminating the chances of severe weather this early either. Clearly the chances are better than zero, stebo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Clearly the chances are better than zero, stebo. Your tone, makes it seem like it is, either way good luck for Chicago's chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Your tone, makes it seem like it is, either way good luck for Chicago's chances. I have no interest in sig severe imby...i'm fine with a few rounds of elevated storms and that is looking like a good bet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Now our chances here in southwest Michigan... Very slim. Morning crap-vection at its finest moving through. Actually, more in the way of rain. GRR was right. I think that nearly dwindles the chance of severe later in the day by about 80%--- I knew that if I said that the rain would start its quick evaporation process. Sun should be out by 10 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 To me it all depends on the timing, speed, and location of the short waves rounding that 990 mb low in the Dakotas. Yes, my focus is on OK to be sure which I think is really under the gun today, but I'll wait for SPC outlooks and reserve judgement for MBY. My point forecast only has showers for today, but severe t storms tonight. As Stebo said, a lot can happen in 12 hours. Here's a sentence from IWX disco this morning. EXTREME NATURE OF UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WOULD ALSO SUGGESTTHAT OCCURENCE OF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY TO BEAR LITTLE IMPACT ONEPISODE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 To me it all depends on the timing, speed, and location of the short waves rounding that 990 mb low in the Dakotas. Yes, my focus is on OK to be sure which I think is really under the gun today, but I'll wait for SPC outlooks and reserve judgement for MBY. My point forecast only has showers for today, but severe t storms tonight. As Stebo said, a lot can happen in 12 hours. Here's a sentence from IWX disco this morning. EXTREME NATURE OF UPSTREAM CONDITIONS WOULD ALSO SUGGEST THAT OCCURENCE OF PREFRONTAL ACTIVITY TO BEAR LITTLE IMPACT ON EPISODE THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT. Very good point. Today is definitely a NOWCAST day in our neck of the woods. OK has the potential for some dangerous stuff... Whew. That's the LAST thing OK needs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Snippet from LOT WITH THE EXPECTATION THAT THIS MORNING WILL END UP BEING MAINLYDRY AND EVENTUALLY PARTLY/MOSTLY SUNNY...TEMPS REACHING LOWER 80SSEEMS ON TRACK ALONG WITH DEWPOINTS REBOUNDING BACK INTO THEMID/UPPER 60S. SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND STRONG LAPSE RATES COMBINEDWITH THE VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE LOW LEVELS WILL SUPPORT SEVEREWEATHER ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MAIN THREAT APPEARING TOBE DAMAGING WINDS WITH ASSOCIATED LINES/BOWING SEGMENTS. THOUGHLARGE HAIL WITH STRONGER CORES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL REMAINPOSSIBLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 12Z update via LOT... // DISCUSSION...UPDATED 12Z...A BREAK IN CONVECTION WILL BE OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDEROF THE MORNING RUSH. LINGERING MVFR CIGS FROM LAST NIGHTS RAINHAVE MAINLY DISSIPATED AND/OR SHIFTED EAST...SO THE MAIN CONCERNCENTERS ON TIMING THE STORM CHANCES. OUR CONVECTIVE POTENTIALLOOKS TO BEGIN FROM ONGOING STORMS IN MISSOURI...WHETHER IT BEFROM THE COMPLEX ITSELF EVOLVING NORTHEAST OR SOME OFFSHOOT OFIT. THE STRONGEST CONVECTION MAY END UP REMAINING SOUTH OF THETERMINALS...AT LEAST AT FIRST. BY MID-AFTERNOON...RE-ENHANCEMENTOF STORMS BOTH IN COVERAGE AND IN MAGNITUDE IS EXPECTEDIMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE DECAYING SYSTEM AND ITS FORCING. WHETHERTHAT WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO IMPACT ORD AND THE OTHER TAFSITES WITH HEAVY CONVECTION IS TOO CHALLENGING TO TELL FOR SUREYET...BUT IT DOES LOOK LIKE IT SHOULD BE AT LEAST CLOSE. SO HAVEPRESERVED THE PREVAILING THUNDER AT THE MOST FAVORED TIMEWINDOWS...BUT ITS POSSIBLE IT HAPPENS BEFORE AND/OR AFTER THISDEPENDING ON NUMEROUS FACTORS. THIS IS ALWAYS A CHALLENGE WITHONGOING EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND HOW IT ALTERS THE ATMOSPHERE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Really worried about the LOT CWA today. That MCC is probably going to lead to a fantastic differential heating zone right through the heart of the CWA, if not the metro. Those are usually bad news bears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I think the St. Louis area is a good spot for an elevated tornado risk. Good area of low-level helicity combined with moderate instability. Also, the MCS may lead a local thermal boundary in that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Really worried about the LOT CWA today. That MCC is probably going to lead to a fantastic differential heating zone right through the heart of the CWA, if not the metro. Those are usually bad news bears. Meaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Loving the sunshine this AM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Was not expecting to wake up to an over cast sky and drizzle this morning. I'm not liking the chances here in Western Illinois of any severe weather now. Although the day is young. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 the RAP (which appears to have a good handle with ongoing action) pitches a shutout for Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CHI_Weather Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Bright and sunny. Radar depicts that the squall line by St Louis will either travel N towards N. IL. Or it will head thru Southern Il in a West to East motion. I guess we'll have to wait and see. It's 72 suppose to hit 77, maybe we'll get a weak to moderate thunderstorm today. Hopefully nothing major in the Chicago area. I forgot my younger brothers have some Navy Pier boat ride graduaution party today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Meaning? Differential heating boundaries can act similar to a warm front. Storms that can ride diff. heating boundaries have an nice environment to go tornado/big hail or wind...especially if they have clean inflow. The Henryville supercells rode one (although I'm not saying that's what we'll see today...that was a beast setup). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 LOT has a multi-media briefing up...much uncertainty but favoring far southern CWA and given the current evolution of the MCC I think it's a good call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 River trying to open up between the 2 complexes....DP's on the rise along with PWAT's....slight risk for LOT seems about right for now IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 LOT has a multi-media briefing up...much uncertainty but favoring far southern CWA and given the current evolution of the MCC I think it's a good call. Yeah I would agree with this right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 LOT has a multi-media briefing up...much uncertainty but favoring far southern CWA and given the current evolution of the MCC I think it's a good call. Given the orientation if the complex it's not a north/south issue...It's east/west in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Given the orientation if the complex it's not a north/south issue...It's east/west in this case. yeah, timing is definitely not on our side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The 4-km NAM starts off with depicting the MCC well, and then has this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The 4-km NAM starts off with depicting the MCC well, and then has this: Timing looks a little late on that, I'm not sure it will take until 0z for what ever happens to pop off. Either way the range of solutions across the various short-term models isn't lending much confidence. The RAP future cast on the mesoanalysis page continues to be bullish with excellent instability across the area which is concerning but it's hard to buy when looking at the quicky approaching cloud deck on visible. It also appears like activity is starting to pick up along a pseudo waa wing on the MCC...which could get interesting for Champaign to LAF down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Timing looks a little late on that, I'm not sure it will take until 0z for what ever happens to pop off. Either way the range of solutions across the various short-term models isn't lending much confidence. The RAP future cast on the mesoanalysis page continues to be bullish with excellent instability across the area which is concerning but it's hard to buy when looking at the quicky approaching cloud deck on visible. It also appears like activity is starting to pick up along a pseudo waa wing on the MCC...which could get interesting for Champaign to LAF down the road. Yeah this is one of the toughest nowcasting situations I can recall in some time, probably going back to June 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 These leftover storm complexes/clouds have to always make things difficult here in the MW don't they? I wouldn't say Chicago's out of it yet, since the precip over western IL is starting to crap the bed. Still plenty of destabilzation going on up over the eastern half of northern IL. I'd favor downstate IL though, along the southern edge of the remnant convection later today. It will be interesting to see what the convection that fires along the synoptic CF does later today in Iowa. I think there's enough effective SRH that storms may actually stay discrete there for a short time until mergers start to take place. Instability may be pretty nice out that way too with plenty of insolation taking place atm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 some 67 and 68 DP's popping up in C IL....pretty interesting day to follow and see how things unfold EDIT: For those more knowledgeable than I....what's the deal with the precip popping behind the complex in Mizzu? Would be interesting if a new moisture channel set up behind the current meso and road N NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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