L.B. LaForce Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 This image caught my eye as the images were being created tonight: If you want to look at more images, go here: http://www.tornadoinsanity.com/wrf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 This image caught my eye as the images were being created tonight: If you want to look at more images, go here: http://www.tornadoinsanity.com/wrf This is quite concerning, as it stays very strong for a while and tracks toward Chicago's metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yep. Interesting the 00Z SPC WRF shows nothing in that area tomorrow. It has everyones favorite morning crapvection taking over, and nothing ever materializing in IL. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yep. Interesting the 00Z SPC WRF shows nothing in that area tomorrow. It has everyones favorite morning crapvection taking over, and nothing ever materializing in IL. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ The WRF-ARW is somewhat similar, but thw 4km NAM and WRF-NMM both have a significant threat. This is going to be as nervous and tedious a nowcasting event as I've ever tracked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yep. Interesting the 00Z SPC WRF shows nothing in that area tomorrow. It has everyones favorite morning crapvection taking over, and nothing ever materializing in IL. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ well by the looks of hrrr that last several runs, that looks pretty correct because a large mcs is going right though the heart of IL during the lunch hour... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The WRF-ARW is somewhat similar, but thw 4km NAM and WRF-NMM both have a significant threat. This is going to be as nervous and tedious a nowcasting event as I've ever tracked. apparently you've never forecasted a "possible" severe weather event in IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The WRF-ARW is somewhat similar, but thw 4km NAM and WRF-NMM both have a significant threat. This is going to be as nervous and tedious a nowcasting event as I've ever tracked. Yeah the big key is watching Kansas over the next couple hours as that is where they are originating the complex that ends up being the morning convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 well by the looks of hrrr that last several runs, that looks pretty correct because a large mcs is going right though the heart of IL during the lunch hour... How does that look correct? That doesn't make a bit of sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 How does that look correct? That doesn't make a bit of sense. how so? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 apparently you've never forecasted a "possible" severe weather event in IL Please tell me you're kidding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Please tell me you're kidding. It was clearly a joke relax lol. That complex forming in KS concerns me though. I've seen those things wreck a decent setup in these parts many a times. Yet I've also seen them lay OFBs and enhance the tornado threat (6-5-10). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 how so? Well because it is a projection of something that hasn't happened yet, unless you are saying that is your prediction and then saying it is correct already too... Either way I am not certain that outcome is going to be true, as I noted watching Kansas over the next few hours is what matters to see if that area lights up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Well because it is a projection of something that hasn't happened yet, unless you are saying that is your prediction and then saying it is correct already too... Either way I am not certain that outcome is going to be true, as I noted watching Kansas over the next few hours is what matters to see if that area lights up. I agree with you. The key is what happens out there tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I agree with you. The key is what happens out there tonight. You agree with me, yet you said the HRRR is correct in showing a huge MCS screwing up the potential. Ok lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 You agree with me, yet you said the HRRR is correct in showing a huge MCS screwing up the potential. Ok lol i agree with you that the KS convection is the stuff to watch. and i'm concerned that hrrr is showing it blowing up into a massive mcs. however, i was wrong in saying that was the end all solution cause hrrr is almost always wrong. didn't mean to jump the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwburbschaser Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The storms that are along I-70 in Kansas right now are the ones to watch. I'm interested to see how they evolve(or don't) over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The storms that are along I-70 in Kansas right now are the ones to watch. I'm interested to see how they evolve(or don't) over the next few hours. They are looking meager at best and every one of them that gets to KC immediately has fallen apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 What's interesting is now several hi res models are firing discrete convection here Saturday afternoon/evening on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 What's interesting is now several hi res models are firing discrete convection here Saturday afternoon/evening on the front. Yes, the front is very slow to move through the region, originally it was supposed to be well East of here by Saturday, now it might not come through until Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The system has failed pretty miserably at maintaining overnight convection/mcs. I'd tend to say that we won't have a ton of debris/crapvection to deal with today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The system has failed pretty miserably at maintaining overnight convection/mcs. I'd tend to say that we won't have a ton of debris/crapvection to deal with today. Yes good point, every night the MCSs that have formed have ran out of gas before morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 What's interesting is now several hi res models are firing discrete convection here Saturday afternoon/evening on the front. Pretty good instability being progged by some models. Wind profiles become increasingly messy by then but certainly plenty of shear to support a continued severe threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 day 1 hits on the uncertainties that have been mentioned here ..MS VALLEY TO UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SCATTERED TO LOCALLY NUMEROUS TSTMS ARE EXPECTED IN ONE OR TWO SW-NE CORRIDORS ACROSS THIS REGION AND MOVE NEWD TO ENEWD. EARLY-PERIOD CONVECTION OVER KS/MO WILL COMPLICATE SVR POTENTIAL VIA BOTH 1. ITS OWN EVOLUTION THROUGH DAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR ONGOING CONVECTION TO MOVE NEWD ACROSS IA/IL/WI AND INTENSIFY UPON ENCOUNTERING DIURNALLY DESTABILIZED AIR MASS...AND 2. ITS OUTFLOW AND CLOUD/PRECIP COVER FARTHER SW ACROSS PORTIONS IL/MO. SPECIFIC LOCATION/TIMING OF RESULTING OUTFLOW/DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY OR BOUNDARIES OVER THIS REGION REMAINS UNCERTAIN ATTM. WHILE CONDITIONALLY REDUCING POTENTIAL FOR SUBSTANTIAL FRONTAL CONVECTION...BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM EARLY TSTM COMPLEX SHOULD HELP TO FOCUS DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THIS AREA AHEAD OF SFC COLD FRONT. FLOW ALOFT WILL INCLUDE STG DIRECTIONAL COMPONENT PARALLEL TO BOTH FRONT AND ANY SUCH PREFRONTAL BOUNDARY...INDICATING QUICK EVOLUTION TO QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODES. AS SUCH...PREDOMINANT THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WIND...WITH SPORADIC AND MOSTLY MRGL SVR HAIL...AND A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE IN QLCS/BOW/LEWP FORMATIONS. AT LEAST MRGLLY FAVORABLE DEEP-SHEAR FIELDS...DIABATIC SFC HEATING...RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...AND LACK OF STG CAPPING MAY ENABLE MIX OF DISCRETE TO CLUSTERED MULTICELL AND SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IN WARM SECTOR BETWEEN AR AND LOWER MI AS WELL...WITH ACCOMPANYING HAIL/TORNADO RISK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Well the storms in Kansas are evolving....on the rader here at 2 am.... Looks like thats not slowing down anytime soon. We'll see. Hopefully none of that comes here by morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Well the storms in Kansas are evolving.... Not dissipating 1 storm, if it forms into a MCS, then worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Well the storms in Kansas are evolving.... Looks like thats not slowing down anytime soon. We'll see. Hopefully none of that comes here by morning Despite that, they are still moving ENE, this will take more and more areas east out of play potentially for downstream effects if this heading continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 FWIW, 3z SREF is popping a 75 on the sigtor ingredients in Illinois Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Friends on facebook are convinced that it was a tornado. Yeah... With all due respect, your friends on Facebook have not a clue of what they speak of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Large complex stretching from N. Indiana to Arkansas is certainly blocking moisture return into the area and there is a pronounced dry pocket (pwats sub 1", dews in low 60s/upper 50s) pushing into W. IL. Complex in MO/KS is much healthier, growing upstream, and is the one to watch for a potential spoiler if it holds together through 12z and blocks our return moisture transport. I think areas well downstate have a shot at some decent severe weather but I don't think N. IL in particular most of Chicagoland is able to recover from the dry air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The complex around KC needs to die fairly quickly, otherwise this event is a bust for some of us. Doesn't look like its going away anytime soon though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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