Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I'm banking on an overnight MCS traversing similar grounds and helping to hang the front up a little further south, if it doesn't happen, north of I80 would be in play The 12z 4km NAM nest run lights up the northbound warm front overnight tonight with storms ahead of an area of rain/storms that moves through IL during the late morning hours and clears the area by noon then we get new storm develop near/after 0z tomorrow evening from Chicago to ne MO along the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 The 12z 4km NAM nest run lights up the northbound warm front overnight tonight with storms ahead of an area of rain/storms that moves through IL during the late morning hours and clears the area by noon then we get new storm develop near/after 0z tomorrow evening from Chicago to ne MO along the front. I saw that, I think the southwest suburbs look good (plainfield magnet engaged?), I'm still not sure about the city proper and north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I saw that, I think the southwest suburbs look good (plainfield magnet engaged?), I'm still not sure about the city proper and north. Going to depend how quickly we can recover tomorrow but def think I-88 and south look good as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 nice little bow segment into springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 And here's the watch. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 229 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 240 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ILLINOIS WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST INDIANA EAST-CENTRAL MISSOURI * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 240 PM UNTIL 1000 PM CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SEVERAL DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE SEVERAL LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTH OF DANVILLE ILLINOIS TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 227...WW 228... DISCUSSION...LONG-LIVED MCS MOVING THROUGH THE MID-MS VALLEY HAS RECENTLY INTENSIFIED AS INFLOW AIR MASS HAS WARMED INTO THE 80S WITH DEWPOINTS CLIMBING THROUGH THE 50S INTO LOWER-MID 60S. WHEN COUPLED WITH MODESTLY STRONG UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES...THE SETUP SHOULD SUPPORT THE CONTINUED INTENSIFICATION OF THE MCS WITH A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS AND SOME HAIL . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 For anyone who hasn't seen it yet, this is a neat thing to play around with. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/envbrowser/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 There may or may not have just been a brief TDS on that storm NE of SPI...can't confirm 100%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Storm near Springfield IL went tornado warned. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL259 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN SANGAMON COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...* UNTIL 330 PM CDT* AT 255 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RIVERTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO. SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MECHANICSBURG...SPAULDING...DAWSON AND BUFFALO.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 55 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 94 AND 103.THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 72 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 100 AND 123.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...TAKE COVER NOW. MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF ASTURDY BUILDING. AVOID WINDOWS. IF IN A MOBILE HOME...A VEHICLE OROUTDOORS...MOVE TO THE CLOSEST SUBSTANTIAL SHELTER AND PROTECTYOURSELF FROM FLYING DEBRIS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Emergency management reports 48 mobile homes "damaged" near Riverton, IL. There was a TOR warning earlier there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Severe Warned storm for SE Tippecanoe County. Sun is out here...that cell will miss me just barely to the southeast. LAF up to 76/66. That was quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 Update on Riverton IL 0300 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 S RIVERTON 39.83N 89.54W 05/27/2013 SANGAMON IL EMERGENCY MNGR UPDATED INFORMATION...REPORT OF 48 MOBILE HOMES DAMAGED. SOME ROOFS PEELED OFF. TREES AND TREE LIMBS DOWN ON SEVERAL MOBILE HOMES. WIND ESTIMATED AROUND 75 MPH. NO INJURIES REPORTED. ALSO SEVERAL LARGE TREES UPROOTED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE MOBILE HOME PARK AT OAK HILL CEMETARY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Several reports of wind damage, downed trees, etc in northern Macon county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Springfield State Journal-Register story on this afternoon's storms: http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x1039448671/Wind-gusts-top-60-mph-as-storm-blows-through Amazingly, the Memorial Day ceremonies at Camp Butler National Cemetery near Riverton had just ended and attendees were heading home when the storm hit--one of the radio stations (WMAY 970) was going wall-to-wall storm coverage from 3-6 this afternoon and a caller had reported broken flagpoles and perhaps damage to a gravestone at the cemetery: http://www.sj-r.com/breaking/x1039448718/Hundreds-gather-at-Camp-Butler-to-honor-fallen-soldiers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 WICS ABC 20 coverage of today's storms from their Facebook page: https://www.facebook.com/WICSABC20 Includes photos of major damage at the city's Henson-Robinson Zoo on the southeast fringe of the city along Lake Springfield. The zoo will be closed until further notice, but THANKFULLY all animals are reported to be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 There is some damage up by Alexandria. Uprooted trees, snapped poles, and some barns lost their roofs. The storm was definitely rotating, but I followed it for a while and never saw any organization to it. Someone on my FB said there was an area of damage with rotation pattern to it, but I don't know, I haven't seen it for myself, I'll drive up there tomorrow morning. Sent by my Thumbs, using Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 FWIW current RAP has STP in the 7-8 range in Quad Cities area at 18z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 FWIW current RAP has STP in the 7-8 range in Quad Cities area at 18z Tuesday. CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg along/south of I-80 at 17z. It has 80 degree temps and 70 degree dewpoints in that area at 17z which may be overzealous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 CAPE in excess of 3000 J/kg along/south of I-80 at 17z. It has 80 degree temps and 70 degree dewpoints in that area at 17z which may be overzealous. Even up here it's pretty decent. But it is the RAP of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Even up here it's pretty decent. But it is the RAP of course. HRRR looks like it's heading for something similar...already pretty unstable by 15z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Kinda tricky to figure out how things will evolve tomorrow. The 00z SPC WRF, which is handling things pretty well right now, moves the current IA/MO storms into central IL with a separate area of storms farther north. Then new initiation takes place near the IA/MO border during the afternoon which eventually moves into northern and central IL/IN. My gut is telling me a high end slight for damaging winds with hail also a threat along with a few tornadoes (5% tornado risk on upcoming SWODY1?). Obviously the tor threat will need to be watched across the area and especially near any potential boundary put out by tonight's stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 5% TOR more on the southside and into C IL... the drawing of the 5% contour.... is interesting 15 wind/15 hail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 5% TOR more on the southside and into C IL... the drawing of the 5% contour.... is interesting 15 wind/15 hail Don't forget the MI/OH peeps...30% wind there. Actually a fairly significant adjustment on this outlook compared to the old day 2, which had a long 30% prob extending into IA/IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tonights lack of activity is interesting. Low level jet appears to be feeding that complex to the West and not helping to ignite anything else thats organized. Not feeling the heavy rain threat here tonight at all. Also think that complex to the West will lay out the outflow boundary pretty far to the South...so it will take some work to get it up in this area later Tuesday. Not as optimistic about this whole set up as I was yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I guess we'll just have to see how everything plays out. Got a pretty good trigger with that MCV moving NE out of Iowa, and also some decent shear. It's just a matter of how much instability can be built up, as always. The LLJ may be sufficient enough in destabilizing the atmosphere upstream, but I'm not holding my breath for that to happen if there's a lot of cloud debris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think it is a safe bet that we'll see tomorrow trend at least a little south. this was an easy call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Good luck to all of you back in the glov... Outbreak is a lock remember cuz I'm gone Sent from my HTCONE using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 thick and expansive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 New day one pushed the slight risk north in Indiana. LAF almost out of it now. Otherwise, pretty much no changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
B-Rent Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Definitely had a downburst yesterday afternoon. Sent by my Thumbs, using Tapatalk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 thick and expansive definitely have our work cut out for us....weakening trends via the QC radar are encouraging.....it doesn't have the overly-stabilized feel to it outside currently....guess we shall see....the race is on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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