Chitown Storm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Monsoon in Lisle, 355 and 88. Can't even see out the window. Storm drains overflowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Saw the weather statement across weather channel a minute ago. Saying storms will continue to develop later this evening. And some could go severe with "killer cloud to ground lightning" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 pretty solid bowing structure headed toward QC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 via LOT.... HOWEVER...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW AN INCREASE INBOTH DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ACROSS THE CURRENT WATCHAREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS WILL HELP FORMORE ORGANIZED AND LONGER LIVED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WESTERNCWA...LEAVING THE THREAT OF HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AS WELL ASPOSSIBLE TORNADOES. ALTHOUGH MORE ORGANIZED DEVELOPMENT IS MORELIKELY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CWA...SHORT TERM GUIDANCE ISHINTING AT A SLIGHT INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR MORE TOWARDS FARNORTHEAST ILLINOIS. THIS SLIGHT INCREASE COINCIDING WITH THECURRENT CAPE IN PLACE...COULD FAVOR SOME ISOLATED STRONGERDEVELOPMENT IN THAT LOCATION IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. WILLNEED CONTINUE TO MONITOR DEVELOPMENT IN THAT LOCATION...WHICHWOULD INCLUDE THE CITY OF CHICAGO/METRO AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOONINTO THE EARLY EVENING...AS I COULD EASILY FORESEE AN UPSCALE INGROWTH IN BOTH INTENSITY AND COVERAGE.EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THROUGH LATE THISAFTERNOON...CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LARGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMSSITUATED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. THIS LINE IS TIEDMORE CLOSELY TO FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUTKANSAS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY FROM IOWA INTOMISSOURI. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMSWILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICHWOULD MAKE SENSE AS THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FURTHEREAST/NORTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG FORCINGOWING TO LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULDAID IN THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER BLOSSOMING AS IT MOVESTOWARDS THE WESTERN ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR ISALSO INCREASING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 There's a svr warning with 80 mph winds for that bow in IA. Looks potent and strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 pretty solid bowing structure headed toward QC BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 359 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... SOUTHEASTERN BENTON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... CEDAR COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... EASTERN DES MOINES COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... IOWA COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... JOHNSON COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... SOUTHERN LINN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... LOUISA COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... WESTERN SCOTT COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... NORTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST IOWA... NORTHERN HENDERSON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... MERCER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... ROCK ISLAND COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ILLINOIS... NORTHWESTERN WARREN COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 356 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM PARNELL TO MORNING SUN TO DALLAS CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Had the power cut out here twice for a second... Weird. The storm thats moving through here is surprisingly decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 somewhat lame duck remnant linear MCS pushing through N. MO is starting to re-organize with new convection out ahead on the northern end. This looks to push into Chicagoland later this evening. further south on that line is starting to really fire and propagate east as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Milwaukee force field almost always delivers, doesn't matter that it's 83F with dews reaching up near 70. It always finds a way. Now how will that cluster down SW of Chicago and that bow in E Iowa/W Illinois find a way to miss us too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL 415 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL MUSCATINE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL IOWA... * UNTIL 445 PM CDT * AT 410 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR LETTS...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... MUSCATINE...WILTON...SWEETLAND CENTER AND MOSCOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 real top shelf thunder Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Milwaukee force field almost always delivers, doesn't matter that it's 83F with dews reaching up near 70. It always finds a way. Now how will that cluster down SW of Chicago and that bow in E Iowa/W Illinois find a way to miss us too? bummer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 further south on that line is starting to really fire and propagate east as well It's still somewhat disorganized and has a long way to go but it's looking decent for at least the western 1/3 to get clipped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Really loving this environment...towers everywhere, crackling thunder and occasional downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Castaway Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Really loving this environment...towers everywhere, crackling thunder and occasional downpours I was about to say the same thing. It was dark 20mins ago pouring and thundering. Now suns out full blast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Really loving this environment...towers everywhere, crackling thunder and occasional downpours yeah.....perfect....also, after the last round went through here it felt stable for about 10 minutes....then just turned into jungle heat and humidity....staying primed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 It's still somewhat disorganized and has a long way to go but it's looking decent for at least the western 1/3 to get clipped warnings now into Galesburg area..... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 421 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... FULTON COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... KNOX COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... SCHUYLER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 515 PM CDT * AT 417 PM CDT...A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 10 MILES NORTH OF ELIZA TO RARITAN TO BEVERLY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH. THESE ARE VERY DANGEROUS STORMS. HAZARD...80 MPH WIND GUSTS AND NICKEL SIZE HAIL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Winds have actually backed some ahead of that line so spin-ups may be on the increase. dCAPE really sucks and we're not seeing a ton of high wind reports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 line rolling into Justin-town now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 If the weather was like it was today all Summer, I'd be a happy camper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Been thinking about the range of possible outcomes tomorrow. To me, the ceiling would be something along the lines of 6/5/10 where there's several dozen tornadoes, some of them strong. The setups are different but the magnitude of shear/instability is somewhat similar and spatial coverage of favorable tornado parameters is as good or even better this time but with this one having more of a SW-NE tilt. OTOH, the floor may be something like 5-10 reports if destabilization is really held in check. Just my 2 cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Looks like the storms have stayed away from AA while I've been gone... Cool. Flight back tomorrow night could get dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Been thinking about the range of possible outcomes tomorrow. To me, the ceiling would be something along the lines of 6/5/10 where there's several dozen tornadoes, some of them strong. The setups are different but the magnitude of shear/instability is somewhat similar and spatial coverage of favorable tornado parameters is as good or even better this time but with this one having more of a SW-NE tilt. OTOH, the floor may be something like 5-10 reports if destabilization is really held in check. Just my 2 cents. If you had to pick an area that you think sees the most potential, where would you pick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Been thinking about the range of possible outcomes tomorrow. To me, the ceiling would be something along the lines of 6/5/10 where there's several dozen tornadoes, some of them strong. The setups are different but the magnitude of shear/instability is somewhat similar and spatial coverage of favorable tornado parameters is as good or even better this time but with this one having more of a SW-NE tilt. OTOH, the floor may be something like 5-10 reports if destabilization is really held in check. Just my 2 cents. If we're talking about just our sub forum, I think the floor is maybe 1-2 reports...top end potential much better. We'll have a much better idea later this evening when overnight MCS activity becomes more clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 If you had to pick an area that you think sees the most potential, where would you pick? At this point, probably somewhere in central IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 line rolling into Justin-town now reflectivity also beefing up a tad in Macomb to Galesburg stretch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 reflectivity also beefing up a tad in Macomb to Galesburg stretch I wonder how far the bow will make it? If it makes it to Lake Michigan, I like Milwaukee to Waukegan, but given my thoughts on the Milwaukee force field, it would make more sense to me that it weakens as it moves into convectively overrun locations (though as Alek mentioned, recovery after t'storms seems to be quick in the region). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 At this point, probably somewhere in central IL Vandalia-Springfield Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 That bow line is really picking up some energy. Almost cloudless skies here in aurora atm. That can only help to further destabilize things before that line arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I wonder how far the bow will make it? If it makes it to Lake Michigan, I like Milwaukee to Waukegan, but given my thoughts on the Milwaukee force field, it would make more sense to me that it weakens as it moves into convectively overrun locations (though as Alek mentioned, recovery after t'storms seems to be quick in the region). tough to tell...just when you think it's chillin' out a bit it surges....LOT touched on this line as well..... EVEN IF THAT DOES NOT MATERIALIZE THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON...CONTINUE TO MONITOR A LARGER LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED FROM SOUTHERN IOWA SOUTH INTO MISSOURI. THIS LINE IS TIED MORE CLOSELY TO FAIRLY STRONG MID LEVEL WAVE LIFTING NORTHEAST OUT KANSAS AND ATTENDANT SURFACE TROUGH/BOUNDARY FROM IOWA INTO MISSOURI. ALL GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE AS THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MOVES FURTHER EAST/NORTHEAST INTO A MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. STRONG FORCING OWING TO LARGE SCALE SUPPORT AND LOW/MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD AID IN THIS LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS FURTHER BLOSSOMING AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE WESTERN ILLINOIS...ESPECIALLY AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS ALSO INCREASING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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