Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Storm motions don't look extreme, which works against it (if we're talking tracks of 25 miles or more). Gotcha.....thanks Hoosier! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 total lack of debris for our region but best parameters still well west. Instability won't be the issue though. We've become moderately unstable but i'm not seeing anything in the way of a trigger until whatever remnants sweep through well after dark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 30% wind added on 1630z just to your west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0876NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK1129 AM CDT THU MAY 30 2013AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MO...IL...SERN IACONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 301629Z - 301730ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 30% wind added on 1630z just to your west That looks about right, should light up pretty good, hopefully i'll see something but storm motions should keep it out of my area for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 things starting to pop quincy to st Louis and sporadically through central southern IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0875.html Watch coming soon New Tornao Watch for WI/IA/MN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 12z 4km WRF likes my east of STL call tomorrow..wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 12z 4km WRF likes my east of STL call tomorrow..wow refd_1000m_f33.gif mxuphl_f33.gif Liking the Vandalia, Springfield, Champaign triangle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Getting a few cap breakers and pulse storms down around Jackson MI. DTX mentioned the potential for brief bouts of severe weather associated with any of the stronger pulse storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 It looks like DLL will get in on some early afternoon action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 12z 4km WRF likes my east of STL call tomorrow..wow a lot of graduations going on in that timeframe also state championships for baseball down state as well will be ongoing tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 percolating nicely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 LOT update.... NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1200 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...1158 AM CDTTHE THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OFCENTRAL AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS AT MIDDAY. WATCH EXPECTED SOON FORWEST/SOUTHWEST PARTS OF THE WFO LOT CWA.LATE MORNING GOES WATER VAPOR DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MISSOURI...PROPAGATING NORTH-NORTHEAST TOWARDWESTERN IL. MOIST WARM SECTOR AIR MASS OVER IL.../SFC DEW POINTTEMPS GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 60S/...BECOMING UNSTABLE AS TEMPS WARMABOVE 80 DEG F...WITH SPC/RAP MESOANALYSIS INDICATING LITTLE/NO CINAND MLCAPE VALUES 1500-2000 J/KG ACROSS CENTRAL/NCNTRL IL. 40-50 KTMID LEVEL FLOW PER UPSTREAM RAOB ANALYSIS SUPPORTING EFFECTIVE BULKSHEAR VALUES OF 30-40 KT PER CURRENT MESO GRAPHICS. THIS SHOULDSUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE POTENTIALFOR ROTATING STORMS ESPECIALLY WEST.EXPECTATION IS THAT ISOLATED/SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOPACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/WEST CENTRAL IL OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURSAND EXPAND IN COVERAGE IN CLUSTERS OR SMALLER LINE SEGMENTS AS THEYMOVE NORTH-NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SEVERE POTENTIAL OFDAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WILL EXIST WITH STRONGER STORMS...WITH SOMEPOTENTIAL FOR AN ISOLATED TORNADO GIVEN 20-30 KT 0-1 KM SHEAR PERRAP ANALYSIS.RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Wow...3000 surface CAPE in north central IL at present...the same as in central OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 LOT update.... you might be far enough west but I think we're out of the loop until possibly very late this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 12z 4km WRF likes my east of STL call tomorrow..wow Moves the morning stuff out of the area pretty early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 you might be far enough west but I think we're out of the loop until possibly very late this evening. agree....although decent CAPE's even nudge offshore of the lake....these winds sure are helping to keep city proper at least in the mix Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 river evident with DP's in the upper 60's to lower 70's from St. Louis all the way to ORD and even further north a tad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 agree....although decent CAPE's even nudge offshore of the lake....these winds sure are helping to keep city proper at least in the mix yeah, instability is fine but convergence/forcing looks to only graze the western CWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 river evident with DP's in the upper 60's to lower 70's from St. Louis all the way to ORD and even further north a tad vectors are pretty wild Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Tornado Watch out just west of CHI metro DISCUSSION...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS AFTERNOON AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF MIDLEVEL TROUGH. THE AMBIENT AIR MASS IS QUITE MOIST AND WHEN COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S IS RESULTING IN MLCAPE OF 1000-2000 J/KG. GIVEN THE COLOCATION OF A 40-50 KT MIDLEVEL JET AND 40-50 KT LLJ...MORE THAN SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS AND A FEW TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daddylonglegs Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Getting hammered with torrential rain and lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 D2 moderate out for tomorrow (for further west), hatched area extending into IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 yeah, instability is fine but convergence/forcing looks to only graze the western CWA What do you think about Milwaukee's chances? Given the storm motion being NE/NNE, anything that develops in NC Illinois should approach the area, but I can't help but feel it will be another squandered opportunity despite the warm sticky conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 What do you think about Milwaukee's chances? Given the storm motion being NE/NNE, anything that develops in NC Illinois should approach the area, but I can't help but feel it will be another squandered opportunity despite the warm sticky conditions. slim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 D2 moderate out for tomorrow (for further west), hatched area extending into IL. The hatching extends into the 15% area which is not something you see very often in this part of the country. Possibly an acknowledgement of the conditional potential of something significant if enough instability is realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 can see some towers going up but the updrafts look pretty weak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Severe thunderstorm watches issued in south western Ontario. Honestly I don't really see all the ingredients coming together. PLENTY of instability and moisture to work with but lack of bulk shear leads me to think severity and sustained updrafts will be limited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 I don't really like the wind profiles in the current tornado watch area. Not really a lot of turning with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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