nwburbschaser Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Interested in hearing what you have to say Tony. I think I'm not seeing something with regards to this potential because I'm not all that sold on it, especially as far north as I-88. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Some nice looking forecast soundings closer to the surface low in the se MN/daddylonglegs area also on Friday. That might be a play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Day 2 ..MO NEWD INTO THE GREAT LAKES SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY OWING TO BOTH LINGERING STORM ACTIVITY FROM THE MORNING AND DIURNALLY-DRIVEN STORMS LATER IN THE DAY ALONG THE FRONT. MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A MOIST/MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DEVELOPING OVER A LARGE PART OF THIS REGION WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THE MAIN BELT OF STRONGER 1-3 KM SWLY FLOW WILL RESIDE OVER THIS REGION...ACTING TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OF STRONG-SEVERE STORMS IN THE FORM OF SUPERCELLS AND BOWING LINE SEGMENTS. IF SUBSTANTIAL DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR...STRONG FLOW FIELDS WOULD SUPPORT AN APPRECIABLE TORNADO THREAT --IN ADDITION TO HAIL/WIND-- AND PERHAPS HIGHER SEVERE PROBABILITIES THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST FOR A PORTION OF THIS AREA. EVENTUAL STORM MERGERS/CONSOLIDATION BY EVENING WOULD FAVOR THE GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MORE OF A STRAIGHT-LINE WIND THREAT THAT MAY PERSIST INTO SATURDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I was going to write a more detailed post but I got distracted with the EMC WRF run for tomorrow (yikes if you haven't seen it for OK). The key to Thursday will be any early initiating convection, which could lead to a lack of destabilization. I think Thursday remnants will likely be out of the picture in plenty of time. If you get 2000J/kg+ CAPE (which the GFS of all models has) across IL/IN with the arrival of that strong jet streak and largely curved hodographs, there will likely be strong-violent tornadoes on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 I was going to write a more detailed post but I got distracted with the EMC WRF run for tomorrow (yikes if you haven't seen it for OK). The key to Thursday will be any early initiating convection, which could lead to a lack of destabilization. I think Thursday remnants will likely be out of the picture in plenty of time. If you get 2000J/kg+ CAPE (which the GFS of all models has) across IL/IN with the arrival of that strong jet streak and largely curved hodographs, there will likely be strong-violent tornadoes on Friday. Yeah, interesting how the GFS has been more bullish on instability. It has 70 degree dewpoints north of I-80 while the NAM keeps that bottled up farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 total lack of debris for our region but best parameters still well west. Instability won't be the issue though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I think areas from around Lake MI westward are most favored on Friday but some threat will extend east of there. I also thought your posts were very good. My question is what mode looks most likely for southern Ontario on Fri if anything? Any chance for discrete activity in my neck of the woods? I wouldn't be surprised if we just get an overnight MCS or squall line but TBH I don't even know if anything will happen. The 28th anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak in Ontario's history is Friday too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 I also thought your posts were very good. My question is what mode looks most likely for southern Ontario on Fri if anything? Any chance for discrete activity in my neck of the woods? I wouldn't be surprised if we just get an overnight MCS or squall line but TBH I don't even know if anything will happen. The 28th anniversary of the worst tornado outbreak in Ontario's history is Friday too. Like what's been the case with all of the "severe weather events" so far, it's TBD based on the evolution of convection from the previous day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Yeah, interesting how the GFS has been more bullish on instability. It has 70 degree dewpoints north of I-80 while the NAM keeps that bottled up farther south. It all comes down to precip. If the warm sector remains unperturbed much of the morning and early afternoon, then something very big is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Spc has the southern portions of WI back under a slight risk for today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Spc has the southern portions of WI back under a slight risk for today yeah not sure why it was removed...best action should be well west but I think we destabilize enough that whatever remnants push in later this evening could pose a slight risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 The GFS forecast soundings for 00Z Friday night in Chicago are something that you do not see every day--especially when such an environment coincides with SSW winds on the lakefront. Note the relatively low LFC, great veering with height, and even the 50-kt low-level jet just above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 LOT and the SPC are being very careful no to bite too hard on Friday for NE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 yeah not sure why it was removed...best action should be well west but I think we destabilize enough that whatever remnants push in later this evening could pose a slight risk I was wondering that as well. Shear and instability look to be sufficient out in western WI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Today is interesting, as we are destabilizing quickly under plentiful sunshine, and many short term models are showing rapid development in Wisconsin and Illinois as early as 16-18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 yeah not sure why it was removed...best action should be well west but I think we destabilize enough that whatever remnants push in later this evening could pose a slight risk I'm not sure if those remnants will be much, especially if we get storms before that during the afternoon that stabilize the atmosphere beforehand, I'm starting to think this will be more of an afternoon deal, which I don't mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 LOT and the SPC are being very careful no to bite too hard on Friday for NE IL. If tomorrow morning is anything like today with ample sunshine and continued strong S SW winds...I will start to get that anxious feeling for sure in this neck of the woods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 HRRR fires storms around 18z over southern WI. Shows cape of 2500+j/kg, better shear however over sw part of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 Another run, another 60. Pretty good signal even with relaxed parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 HRRR fires storms around 18z over southern WI. Shows cape of 2500+j/kg, better shear however over sw part of the state. Yeah, looks like one of those rare kind of days where convection starts early, though that's fine with ample instability by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Going to be interesting to see if the SPC starts ramping up Tor wording for this area on Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Going to be interesting to see if the SPC starts ramping up Tor wording for this area on Friday. They did indicate in the Great Lakes portion of their disco that parts of the slight risk region (probably N Illinois) may have to be increased in terms of risk. I'll bet the early afternoon update beefs up the probabilities to 30% for parts of the region if the trends continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 12z NAM has a period of clearing around Chicagoland tomorrow and really ramps up CAPE around 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 12z NAM has a period of clearing around Chicagoland tomorrow and really ramps up CAPE around 18z. things starting to get real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 things starting to get real? That area gets interesting as you get more than enough instability. But do we get discrete supercells or lots of storms going up at once. Still like further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Skilling is sipping the tor ingredients kool aid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 Skilling is sipping the tor ingredients kool aid It's been consistent which is starting to leave an impression with me but I still can't shake the feeling that the area will be undercut by action to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 any longer track potential up here? or just decent ingredients for short track spin ups? Would not like to see longer track tors form south of the metro if ya smell what i'm cookin' Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 30, 2013 Share Posted May 30, 2013 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0875.html Watch coming soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 30, 2013 Author Share Posted May 30, 2013 any longer track potential up here? or just decent ingredients for short track spin ups? Would not like to see longer track tors form south of the metro if ya smell what i'm cookin' Storm motions don't look extreme, which works against it (if we're talking tracks of 25 miles or more). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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