May 27-June 2 Severe Weather

[Hoosier]

That 60 contour is right over my house. I'm trying to think back to when the last time I saw that here was. Granted my memory isn't as good as it used to be but I'm having a hard time coming up with a date.

I'm not sure I ever saw it go above 50 using the old parameters with higher MLCAPE and lower LCL height...maybe it did but I can't recall. I've seen 75% a couple times using the new values.

[Chargers09]

DTX has confirmed 6 tornadoes from last night, 2 EF0, 2 EF1 and 2 EF2

Very impressive. I cant recall the last time we've had a localized outbreak up here. 

[SpartyOn]

Very impressive. I cant recall the last time we've had a localized outbreak up here.

1997 comes to mind

[Chinook]

Well I guess our talk about a "sneaky" tornado day in the Lakes/Ohio Valley turned out to be right. New, unexpected, tornadic storms popped the evening (9:00ish?), like 6/5/2010, which was 11:30ish at night. I specifically think of 6/5/2010 because small supercells popped near Toledo, and it probably wasn't even close to a "moderate risk". Of course there were also many more that happened in Illinois that day.

 

Edit:

 

10% tornado risk existed across a broad area of IL, IN, and northwest OH, with Mod. risk in that area on 6/5/2010

[Hoosier]

Very impressive. I cant recall the last time we've had a localized outbreak up here.

Might have to go back to 1997 to find something of this magnitude as Sparty said. Really depends how broad of an area in eastern MI that you're looking at.

[Powerball]

Might have to go back to 1997 to find something of this magnitude as Sparty said. Really depends how broad of an area in eastern MI that you're looking at.

This one was extremely localized though.

1997 was across the board, including touchdowns in the city of Detroit.

[Boogieman]

DTX has confirmed 6 tornadoes from last night, 2 EF0, 2 EF1 and 2 EF2

Wow! I live in Genesee County, and the sirens were going off all night long it seems. From what I saw and heard, I think FOUR of those were in Genesee Co., I know at least three were, but one dissipated and new rotation developed about a mile from there, so I'd guess that would be considered a separate entity..

 

The oddest thing of all had to be the tornado damage in Goodrich/Atlas in the SE part of the county. At least on the "everyday people" radar, the couplet just fell right apart a few miles west of there, but still there was obviously sufficient rotation and intensity at the surface. Just bizzare.

 

As for DTX, I think they did a great job with warnings and such considering the MICON operator said he was pretty much on his own due to the spontaneous nature of the situation. I think there should have been at least a SVR watch box for SEMI before the storms entered the CWA, but it is what it is.

 

What is particularly concerning to me is the fact that this area had that many tornadoes in one event. With what has happened in the last few years with violent tornadoes hitting urban areas, I can't help but keep the 1953 Beecher tornado fresh in my mind. It's been 60 years ago, I think Michigan is way overdue for a big one. The urban density from Auburn Hills southward is pretty tight, so even a strong EF3 could rake up some serious casualties in just a few miles on the ground. A long-tracking EF4 or EF5 from, say, Ann Arbor through Novi, through the downriver area and on into Windsor would be heartbreaking, to say the least. Think Joplin-scale carnage and destruction for forty or fifty miles on end. Seriously one of those things you just don't ever want to see.

 

In retrospect, perhaps due to the above thought, maybe not having a watch in place and still having tornadoes occur in the CWA may make people think a bit more the next time a watch IS issued for their area. Just maybe. One can only hope.  

[andyhb]

Saw this snippet from ILX which interests me greatly for Friday.

 

THURSDAY THE STRONG UPPER LOW OVER THE PLAINS EDGES FAR ENOUGH
EAST TO BRING HEIGHT FALLS AND INITIAL BATCH OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY
OVER THE CWA. THUS POPS WILL BEGIN TO RAMP UP FROM THE WEST AND
CONTINUE UNTIL THE COLD FRONT EVENTUALLY PASSES NEXT WEEKEND.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT APPEARS VERY ACTIVE WITH
ALL INGREDIENTS IN PLACE FOR AT LEAST A COUPLE EPISODES OF SEVERE
STORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THESE INCLUDES A 90KT UPPER LEVEL
JET LIFTING INTO THE MIDWEST...SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EJECTING FROM
THE TROF IN DIFLUENT SOUTHWEST FLOW...HIGH MOISTURE LEVELS WITH
PWATS 150-200% OF NORMAL...AND AMPLE INSTABILITY. THIS SCENARIO
WOULD LIKELY PRODUCE SEVERE CONVECTION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING AND POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT MCS/S. OF COURSE THE FINER
SCALE DETAILS WILL NEED TO BE WORKED OUT BUT FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING LOOKS PARTICULARLY INTERESTING WITH ENHANCED
DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND A POCKET OF MID-LEVEL DRY AIR SHIFTING
OVERHEAD.

[A-L-E-K]

I like Thursday night better than Firday locally but Friday is looking legit downstate

[Central Illinois]

Friday is looking like a big day for central il!

Sent from my iPhone 5 using

Tapatalk!

[Hoosier]

NAM/GFS have a 500 mb wind max of 80 kts in Iowa at 00z Sat...impressive for the last day of May.

[Hoosier]

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LA CROSSE WI

608 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LA CROSSE HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

NORTHERN GRANT COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 604 PM CDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTH OF BLOOMINGTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO.

SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO NEAR JELLYSTONE CAMPGROUND NEAR BAGLEY AT 557 PM CDT.

IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR...

BOSCOBEL AROUND 625 PM CDT.

OTHER LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE WAUZEKA...MOUNT IDA...COUNTY ROADS K AND T...WERLEY...HARRIS RIDGE...BOYDTOWN...WOODMAN...HIGHWAY 61 AND COUNTY T...MAPLE RIDGE AND EASTER ROCK.

[Hoosier]

TDS in GRUNDY COUNTY IL

KLOT 1.png

EF0 confirmed with that cell.

[Stebo]

A couple of pictures I took today from the tornado damage

The first picture is across from Goodrich High School, this is of the ef-2 damage.

The second picture is of a bar, the roof is on the right side of the picture in the trees.

The last picture is of an auto center I believe.

The last 2 are in Beecher, which was an ef-1.

[Indystorm]

Photos and video I've seen of the MIchigan tornadoes remind me not to judge the intensity of the storm based on its appearance.  Some of those shots showed what looked like a more powerful storm.  Glad they were EF-0 to EF-2.  That's bad enough when they weren't really anticipated.

[hm8]

Photos and video I've seen of the MIchigan tornadoes remind me not to judge the intensity of the storm based on its appearance.  Some of those shots showed what looked like a more powerful storm.  Glad they were EF-0 to EF-2.  That's bad enough when they weren't really anticipated.

 

And conversely, the radar returns looked like weak sauce

[Geos]

New tornado warning west of Dubuque.

 

TORNADO WARNINGIAC055-300115-/O.NEW.KDVN.TO.W.0006.130530T0035Z-130530T0115Z/BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTEDTORNADO WARNINGNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL735 PM CDT WED MAY 29 2013THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE QUAD CITIES HAS ISSUED A* TORNADO WARNING FOR...  DELAWARE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST IOWA...* UNTIL 815 PM CDT* AT 731 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A  TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR RYAN...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.  HAZARD...DEVELOPING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.  IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.           SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL           OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS.           EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY.* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  MANCHESTER...MASONVILLE...DELAWARE...GREELEY...EDGEWOOD...COFFINS  GROVE PARK...TURTLE CREEK PARK...BAILEYS FORD PARK...MANCHESTER  AIRPORT...ONEIDA...PETERSBURG...FOUNTAIN SPRINGS PARK AND TWIN  BRIDGES PARK.OTHER LOCATIONS AFFECTED INCLUDE DELAWARE COUNTY FAIRGROUNDS...TWINBRIDGES PARK...FOUNTAIN SPRINGS PARK...TURTLE CREEK PARK...BAILEY`SFORD PARK AND COFFINS GROVE PARK.

[brettman320]

Photos and video I've seen of the MIchigan tornadoes remind me not to judge the intensity of the storm based on its appearance.  Some of those shots showed what looked like a more powerful storm.  Glad they were EF-0 to EF-2.  That's bad enough when they weren't really anticipated.

Yeah that Bryon tornado looked pretty beastly for an EF-1. Conversely, the Manitoba F5 was pencil thin while it was causing F5 damage. So you just never know. 

[Hoosier]

Have spent the better part of 2 hours looking things over and without trying to sound alarmist, not seeing a lot of things to preclude a pretty substantial tornado outbreak in this subforum, centered on Friday. Most of the key ingredients seem to be there from forcing to shear, adequate instability, low LCLs and so on. The SREF sigtor ingredients showing those high probs 2-3 days out also sets off alarm bells for me. The main questions imo are what kind of effects any leftover convection has in modulating the location/severity of the threat and the convective mode...do we see a lot of discrete activity or more of a mixed mode. At this point, I don't see Friday as a slam dunk HIGH risk day but a moderate risk possibly being issued as soon as the new day 2 seems plausible, barring any big changes on the 00z suite.

[Stebo]

Have spent the better part of 2 hours looking things over and without trying to sound alarmist, not seeing a lot of things to preclude a pretty substantial tornado outbreak in this subforum, centered on Friday. Most of the key ingredients seem to be there from forcing to shear, adequate instability, low LCLs and so on. The SREF sigtor ingredients showing those high probs 2-3 days out also sets off alarm bells for me. The main questions imo are what kind of effects any leftover convection has in modulating the location/severity of the threat and the convective mode...do we see a lot of discrete activity or more of a mixed mode. At this point, I don't see Friday as a slam dunk HIGH risk day but a moderate risk possibly being issued as soon as the new day 2 seems plausible, barring any big changes on the 00z suite.

 

Not much more to add that you haven't here, things potentially look very dangerous for Friday.

[Harry Perry]

Have spent the better part of 2 hours looking things over and without trying to sound alarmist, not seeing a lot of things to preclude a pretty substantial tornado outbreak in this subforum, centered on Friday. Most of the key ingredients seem to be there from forcing to shear, adequate instability, low LCLs and so on. The SREF sigtor ingredients showing those high probs 2-3 days out also sets off alarm bells for me. The main questions imo are what kind of effects any leftover convection has in modulating the location/severity of the threat and the convective mode...do we see a lot of discrete activity or more of a mixed mode. At this point, I don't see Friday as a slam dunk HIGH risk day but a moderate risk possibly being issued as soon as the new day 2 seems plausible, barring any big changes on the 00z suite.

Any key area that looks better amongst others?

[andyhb]

Excellent post there Hoosier, like you mentioned earlier, this type of mid level jet profile/max is not something you see everyday in late May going into June, let alone with potentially substantial instability available.

[Hoosier]

Any key area that looks better amongst others?

I think areas from around Lake MI westward are most favored on Friday but some threat will extend east of there.

[Harry Perry]

I think areas from around Lake MI westward are most favored on Friday but some threat will extend east of there.

Excellent post there Hoosier, like you mentioned earlier, this type of mid level jet profile/max is not something you see everyday in late May going into June, let alone with potentially substantial instability available.

I agree, excellent post Hoosier.

I don't think moisture will be a limiting factor Friday, that's for sure. Feels like Florida out there right now.

[Indystorm]

Having looked at TwisterData parameters on the NAM at 48 hrs. I am very concerned for much of northern and ne IL.  Low and mid level helicity values in the Chicago area are quite pronounced.  I share Hoosier's concern.  The surface to 500 mb crossover is significant and the jet is very strong.

[Indystorm]

Gino Izzi from LOT sees a MCS moving through the area Thursday night which will definitely lay down boundaries for Friday.

FAIRLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SCALE SHORT SHOULD BE MOVING INTO THEMIDWEST AND MID-MS VALLEY LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND WHERE EVERTHERE IS COVECTIVELY UNDISTURBANCE ENVIRONMENT WOULD EXPECT ROBUSTCONVECTION TO FIRE UP AND ORGANIZE...LIKELY TO THE WEST OF OUR CWADURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH LEFT OVERS OF THIS CONVECTIONPROBABLY MOVING INTO OUR CWA THURSDAY EVENING...PROBABLY IN THEFORM OF AN MCS/QLCS WITH THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND POTENTIALLYDAMAGING WINDS.

[Indystorm]

 

[andyhb]

GFS has an even stronger H5 jet max at 85+ kts with a ~552 dm upper low...that's not a common sight on the last day of May.

[Thundersnow12]

Not as optimistic as I was yesterday regarding Friday. Still like southern IL though, maybe east of STL for something really interesting. Clouds and convection scare me further north.

[tornadotony]

Not as optimistic as I was yesterday regarding Friday. Still like southern IL though, maybe east of STL for something really interesting. Clouds and convection scare me further north.

South of I-88/east of I-39 still looks fine to me.  Friday's probably going to be a big day.  More later.