Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 @Thundersnow, there is not a single thing I can find wrong with that wind profile... The thing that concerns me about late week is that you're looking at potentially many large population centers at substantial risk. That being said, there are reasons to be cautious...degree of instability with northeastward extent is a question mark at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 @Thundersnow, there is not a single thing I can find wrong with that wind profile... No it's pretty sweet. Ongoing convection going to be the big player as usual with IL setups. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aurora Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 RAP really had the 700 mb jet streak nailed for SEMI today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wow at the GFS for Friday...just wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Wow at the GFS for Friday...just wow. I think I said the same thing when I saw the supercell comps and the extent of favorable wind fields, either that or my jaw just dropped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 The CIPS analogs for the 00z GFS at 72 hours were pretty solid severe wx producers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Im hoping to see something around here Friday afternoon, hopefully good initiation will take place somewhere in the dvn cwa... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 The CIPS analogs for the 00z GFS at 72 hours were pretty solid severe wx producers. Number two analog for the Mississippi Valley frame was 18z 6/2/90. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 I work Friday Night, so expect all hell to break loose locally seeing as I won't be able to be out and about, if today was any indication. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 D3, no mention of tornadoes. DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0241 AM CDT WED MAY 29 2013 VALID 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN PLAINS TO LOWER GREAT LAKES... ..SYNOPSIS SOMEWHAT MORE PROGRESSIVE FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ALONG THE U.S./CANADA BORDER AS THE CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE DAKOTAS OPENS AND MOVES DOWNSTREAM TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES ON FRIDAY. THE EAST COAST RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AS THIS OCCURS AND ANOTHER LOW AMPLITUDE IMPULSE WILL MOVE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NRN PLAINS LOW WILL SETTLE SEWD INTO A VERY MOIST AIRMASS FROM THE SRN PLAINS NEWD ACROSS THE LOWER OH VALLEY TO GREAT LAKES. LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM CONVEYOR BELT AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL BE AUGMENTED BY DPVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE OPENING UPPER WAVE. ..ERN OK ACROSS THE MIDWEST TO LOWER MI SEVERAL DAYS OF STRONG LOW LEVEL SLY FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INLAND ACROSS THE MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST WILL SUPPORT ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE OVER AN EXTENSIVE REGION. MODEST TO STRONG WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN MID LEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME/EML FROM THE SRN PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDWEST WITH SURFACE HEATING CONTRIBUTING TO STRONG DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. CONVECTION SHOULD INCREASE AHEAD OF THE SLOW-MOVING FRONT AND NEAR RESIDUAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR DAY STORMS AS HEATING AND LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACT TO LOCALLY OVERCOME CAPPING/INHIBITION. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 30-50KT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STORM ORGANIZATION THROUGH THE LATER AFTERNOON WITH BOTH LINEAR AND CELLULAR/SUPERCELLULAR MODES POSSIBLE. HAIL AND HIGH WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN MCS OR TWO EVOLVING INTO EARLY SATURDAY JUNE 1. GREATER SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES HAVE BEEN INCLUDED WHERE STRONG INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ARE FORECAST TO COEXIST WITH A VERY CONSISTENT SIGNAL FOR DEEP CONVECTION IN A VARIETY OF LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE. ..CARBIN.. 05/29/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Number two analog for the Mississippi Valley frame was 18z 6/2/90. Regarding Friday, I was flipping through Jon Finch's site earlier to try to find something that looks similar from a surface and 500 mb perspective (especially for May/June) and didn't find much. Certainly could've missed something with all there is to look at. The 1990 shortwave became negative tilt which is not what looks to happen in this case at least for Friday. The type of trough shape/orientation being progged grabs my attention though since it's been present for some big events in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Regarding Friday, I was flipping through Jon Finch's site earlier to try to find something that looks similar from a surface and 500 mb perspective (especially for May/June) and didn't find much. Certainly could've missed something with all there is to look at. The 1990 shortwave became negative tilt which is not what looks to happen in this case at least for Friday. The type of trough shape/orientation being progged grabs my attention though since it's been present for some big events in the past. Yeah the 500 mb setup in particular compared to 6/2/90 is a lot different, despite the magnitude of the wind fields looking somewhat similar. It certainly has a decent ceiling, although obviously concerns about crapvection are warranted. I do think the lack of mention for tornadoes in the D3 was a bit puzzling though, considering the appearance of the synoptic setup and the parameters being suggested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Morning after arm chair quarterback rant: I know the a couple of employees of SPC post here, and this is not directly at them specifically, but I feel they really dropped the ball yesterday by not issuing a tornado watch for Southern MI. It was mentioned here that the warm front could come into play for severe and I know that SPC was looking the same parameters. There were in fact several cells that exhibited strong rotation and there were several reports of damage, a few of which I have no doubt will be determined to be a result of tornado damage. /end rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathergy Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Morning after arm chair quarterback rant: I know the a couple of employees of SPC post here, and this is not directly at them specifically, but I feel they really dropped the ball yesterday by not issuing a tornado watch for Southern MI. It was mentioned here that the warm front could come into play for severe and I know that SPC was looking the same parameters. There were in fact several cells that exhibited strong rotation and there were several reports of damage, a few of which I have no doubt will be determined to be a result of tornado damage. /end rant This 100% The wind profiles were impressive for Michigan standards. Sent from my Galaxy Nexus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Morning after arm chair quarterback rant: I know the a couple of employees of SPC post here, and this is not directly at them specifically, but I feel they really dropped the ball yesterday by not issuing a tornado watch for Southern MI. It was mentioned here that the warm front could come into play for severe and I know that SPC was looking the same parameters. There were in fact several cells that exhibited strong rotation and there were several reports of damage, a few of which I have no doubt will be determined to be a result of tornado damage. /end rant Don't local WFOs have some influence on a watch being issued? (I seemed to have heard that from someone at NWS but cannot remember where.) Maybe the WFO thought it was unnecessary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Morning after arm chair quarterback rant: I know the a couple of employees of SPC post here, and this is not directly at them specifically, but I feel they really dropped the ball yesterday by not issuing a tornado watch for Southern MI. It was mentioned here that the warm front could come into play for severe and I know that SPC was looking the same parameters. There were in fact several cells that exhibited strong rotation and there were several reports of damage, a few of which I have no doubt will be determined to be a result of tornado damage. /end rant To be fair, DTX and GRR have the final say. But who can blame them? For one, the activity was relatively isolated (similar to the Dexter tornado). Really, only Flint saw most of the severe weather action out of the entire region, aside from that tornado warning SE of Lansing. Besides how many times have they been burned in the past, in comparison to any other CWA, for issuing watches that bust (that event in mid-April with the Tornado Watches comes to mind)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 To be fair, DTX and GRR have the final say. But who can blame them? For one, the activity was relatively isolated (similar to the Dexter tornado). Really, only Flint saw most of the severe weather action out of the entire region, aside from that tornado warning SE of Lansing. Besides how many times have they been burned in the past, in comparison to any other CWA, for issuing watches that bust (that event in mid-April with the Tornado Watches comes to mind)? All tornadoes, by definition, are isolated. The fact that there were at least 5 warnings with at least 3 touchdowns indicate that this wasn't just a single isolated event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 EC issued a Severe Thunderstorm watch for the region... At least a heads up to the potential to more damaging weather could be issued with the watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Not much in the way of upper level forcing today but with the warm front close by and clearing skies creating some instability, there might be a chance at some isolated strong storms today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Morning after arm chair quarterback rant: I know the a couple of employees of SPC post here, and this is not directly at them specifically, but I feel they really dropped the ball yesterday by not issuing a tornado watch for Southern MI. It was mentioned here that the warm front could come into play for severe and I know that SPC was looking the same parameters. There were in fact several cells that exhibited strong rotation and there were several reports of damage, a few of which I have no doubt will be determined to be a result of tornado damage. /end rant To be fair, DTX and GRR have the final say. But who can blame them? For one, the activity was relatively isolated (similar to the Dexter tornado). Really, only Flint saw most of the severe weather action out of the entire region, aside from that tornado warning SE of Lansing. Besides how many times have they been burned in the past, in comparison to any other CWA, for issuing watches that bust (that event in mid-April with the Tornado Watches comes to mind)? Usually the SPC initiates conference calls to coordinate a watch but if the WFO feels strongly that a watch is needed we can call SPC. Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Don't local WFOs have some influence on a watch being issued? (I seemed to have heard that from someone at NWS but cannot remember where.) Maybe the WFO thought it was unnecessary. They didn't issue a MCD until 920PM for Southern Michigan by that point there had been 4 tornadoes down and one on going, yes the WFOs do influence watch issuance, by this point though DTX probably was too busy to take the conference call with 3 ongoing tornado warnings. That would have been my guess, also it wasn't just Southern Michigan, they did issue a MCD for NW PA and SW NY with watch unlikely and they had a whole bunch of severe there including a multi vortex tornado. I almost never rag on SPC but yesterday they dropped the ball region wide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Usually the SPC initiates conference calls to coordinate a watch but if the WFO feels strongly that a watch is needed we can call SPC. Sent from my SCH-I535 2 Yeah and probably by the time GRR/DTX thought the watch was needed they had become too busy with warnings to make that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Let's hope this is the old formula because if not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 https://twitter.com/WxNick/status/339576450371969024/photo/1 We were just inside the warning square for that one. It was obviously going to miss to the north, but it had some locals worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 NAM sim reflectivity really lights up for Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 They didn't issue a MCD until 920PM for Southern Michigan by that point there had been 4 tornadoes down and one on going, yes the WFOs do influence watch issuance, by this point though DTX probably was too busy to take the conference call with 3 ongoing tornado warnings. That would have been my guess, also it wasn't just Southern Michigan, they did issue a MCD for NW PA and SW NY with watch unlikely and they had a whole bunch of severe there including a multi vortex tornado. I almost never rag on SPC but yesterday they dropped the ball region wide. The MCD you referenced really didn't even mention the ongoing situation in eastern MI...it was for the stuff near Chicago that was poised to move eastward into the area. Whether there should've been a watch or not, the apparent lack of attention as things were unfolding yesterday left me scratching my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 One difference I am noticing for Friday is that the GFS seems to have better mid level lapse rates than the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IMADreamer Posted May 29, 2013 Share Posted May 29, 2013 Let's hope this is the old formula because if not That 60 contour is right over my house. I'm trying to think back to when the last time I saw that here was. Granted my memory isn't as good as it used to be but I'm having a hard time coming up with a date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 29, 2013 Author Share Posted May 29, 2013 DTX has confirmed 6 tornadoes from last night, 2 EF0, 2 EF1 and 2 EF2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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