bluewave Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 ....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 25, 2013 Share Posted May 25, 2013 We have been seeing a different Arctic pattern this spring than what has been the case from 2007-2012. March was the lowest -AO on record for that month at -3.185. This was the first -3 or lower AO recorded since 1950 outside December to February. Perhaps this extreme event lead to the different patterns that we saw during April and May so far. So the big question is whether we finally experience a break in the strong blocking pattern this June which has been common from June 2007-2012? Comparisons between this spring and the 2007-2012 composite: March MAR13.png MARCOMP.png April APR13.png APRCOMP.png May MAY13.gif MAYCOMP.png June JUNECOMP.png Probably the most visible difference is in May. Should make for an interesting summer melt season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 Right on on time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snow_Miser Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 The ridging on the models will all be focused over the Russian Arctic to start June which will be different than the strong block over Greenland to the pole that we saw last June 1-7. But we'll have to wait until we get a further into June to know if the blocking will return to Greenland and the pole by mid or late month. f156.gif 12zECMWFENS500mbHeightAnomalyNH168.gif June 1-7 2012 12.gif FWIW, the 6z GEFS in their long range suggest that the pattern in the beginning of June should continue into the middle part of June: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The_Global_Warmer Posted May 26, 2013 Share Posted May 26, 2013 FWIW, the 6z GEFS in their long range suggest that the pattern in the beginning of June should continue into the middle part of June: The ridging on the models will all be focused over the Russian Arctic to start June which will be different than the strong block over Greenland to the pole that we saw last June 1-7. But we'll have to wait until we get a further into June to know if the blocking will return to Greenland and the pole by mid or late month. I agree we have to wait. I just thought it was to convenient not to post it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 ECMWF ensembles are still showing the highest height anomalies remaining in the Scandanavian region of the arctic for the first week of June with the lowest heights from N Alaska over to Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 NAO observations have generally been running more positive than progged over the past couple months, so I'd be reluctant to buy into any D 5-10 block development at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.