scoresman Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Is this pattern going to end Friday or will the threat continue into the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 New Day 2 MDT from Southern Nebraska to the Red River with mention of supercells with the potential of strong tornadoes. Large 45% hatched area as well... disco was def disconcerting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 7th mod for us. #winning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bozart Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Think we are staying in KS. Indecision makes the decision. Bozart's "Affirmative Action Forecast Technique" -- when confronted with two equally tempting but geographically separate target areas, incline to the one that better sets you up for the next day. -lol- Actually, I hear that may not be a Bozart invention. You guys gonna play the warm front up on the NE border? Nice parameters on the RAP. If only we knew for sure something would go boom up there before sundown... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 7th mod for us. #winning A pretty crazy stretch for sure! Thursday and Friday can easily head mod as well. I think I agree with Brett that each day will have several conditional factors that will prevent, at the very least, a high risk being issued early in the day. But this go-around seems to have the potential for a more widespread event than May 18-20 with stronger winds aloft and a deeper cyclone. If things become focused and clearer with stability issues, any of the next 3 days could go high risk. But this is not my forte and I default to you guys on that kind of speculation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Large 45% hatched area as well... disco was def disconcerting Thankfully, the primary threat area appears to be well NW of the I-35 corridor, meaning much more sparsely-populated than the epicenter of last week's events. Unfortunately, the I-35 corridor is back in play potentially Thursday and/or Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Think we are staying in KS. Indecision makes the decision. Where are you guys at? I stayed overnight in SLN, and am still hanging around. Probably would've just gone home and forced myself to sit today out if yesterday had unfolded like I'd hoped. I kind of like the upslope play today, too, but don't think it's worth tampering with tomorrow's options for. (Cue Campo redux.) Probably will end up parameter chasing somewhere W or NW of here later. The foci for initiation are so murky today that one might as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Seems like Dr. Forbes caught on to something about Wednesday faster than the SPC did... Thought he was crazy for issuing that 7/10 TOR:CON for Eastern/Central Kansas tomorrow, not so much now, suddenly I have a bad feeling about wednesday/Thursday/Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Bozart's "Affirmative Action Forecast Technique" -- when confronted with two equally tempting but geographically separate target areas, incline to the one that better sets you up for the next day. -lol- Actually, I hear that may not be a Bozart invention. You guys gonna play the warm front up on the NE border? Nice parameters on the RAP. If only we knew for sure something would go boom up there before sundown... Not sure. We are in Russell so kind of just chilling for now. Tomorrow definitely a consideration... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Where are you guys at? I stayed overnight in SLN, and am still hanging around. Probably would've just gone home and forced myself to sit today out if yesterday had unfolded like I'd hoped. I kind of like the upslope play today, too, but don't think it's worth tampering with tomorrow's options for. (Cue Campo redux.) Probably will end up parameter chasing somewhere W or NW of here later. The foci for initiation are so murky today that one might as well. I love structure.. I'd be happy just going for that every day but I guess it doesn't make sense to place ourselves possibly 8 hours from the target tomorrow. This general region seems like as good a play as any today for tornadoes at least. We are also planning on parameter bullseying. Prob float east in a bit tho letting things percolate a bit first since we can hop on 70 and go pretty quick if needed, plus this area doesn't look horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Should be a good chase day tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Even the non-tornadic storms would seem to have high wind damage potential. I checked real quick because of SPC mention of the LLJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think I may very well head out there tomorrow. This is my vacation week so why not go and chase some real storms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I love structure.. I'd be happy just going for that every day but I guess it doesn't make sense to place ourselves possibly 8 hours from the target tomorrow. This general region seems like as good a play as any today for tornadoes at least. We are also planning on parameter bullseying. Prob float east in a bit tho letting things percolate a bit first since we can hop on 70 and go pretty quick if needed, plus this area doesn't look horrible. I'm actually doing the upslope play today...heading towards Colby now. Our team is willing to drive for several hours tonight, since we have not been out here as long as you guys have. I just thought that further east, the mode was potentially too linear. Edit: Colby also has a good road network to go in any direction. There is a chance we might slide a tad east once we get there. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I'm actually doing the upslope play today...heading towards Colby now. Our team is willing to drive for several hours tonight, since we have not been out here as long as you guys have. I just thought that further east, the mode was potentially too linear. Edit: Colby also has a good road network to go in any direction. There is a chance we might slide a tad east once we get there. We'll see. Nice. Good luck! Does look like new SPC opens up more ops north etc. one problem may be that 500mb winds are pretty southerly except over the southern part of the mod. Could definitely play northwest and then the best area tomorrow if willing to drive a lot tho. Given we got such great structure already seems like worth gambling on the closer play but wouldn't be surprised to see something good up to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tornado watch issued for KS/NE/MO/IA until 10 PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 We have changed our minds. We are going east on I-70. lol. I don't like the lack of moisture further west, the paramaters don't appear to be that great, and they are more dislocated from the mid-level jet max...I'm pretty big on 500mb wind velocities, and their slow speed just sort of bothers me a bit. Of course, upslope is not always a parameter based mechanism, which is what worries me a tad about the decision. Also, seems like the parameters don't get better out there until there are daylight issues. Thus, it would leave a VERY late night, and as much as we are willing to drive, we need energy for the next three days. I feel that heading towards Minneapolis/SLN can yield decent moisture, as you're near the boundaries, yet the 3KM helicity definitely seem to be increasing as time goes on. Oh, the stresses of storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tornado watch issued for KS/NE/MO/IA until 10 PM. Although included within the outline of the watch, my county is not included in the shaded in part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Although included within the outline of the watch, my county is not included in the shaded in part The frontal boundary current arcs through Rice and Ellsworth Co., so it seems probable that any storms will progress E of I-135 before reaching maturity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I am not so sold on tomorrow's tornado threat's being substantially greater than that which occurred yesterday. While synoptically the set-up over WWR and DDC is more impressive and will not feature much of a back-veer-back pattern, there will be a stout cap / temperature inversion at 700 mb which, due to the amplitude of the ridging downstream, may mean more instability will be required to break the low-level cap and to lower the LFC (though the LCL will be sufficiently low). I do not like the relative sharpness of the trough and the early timing of the first initial shortwave, which arrives a good six hours too early and leaves the secondary impulse to move in after 00Z. This leaves less of a window in which discrete storms are to evolve before the boundary layer decouples in the evening, though the low-level convergence and BRN shear increase after 00Z. Plus, the primary low starts to weaken as the best kinematics move in, further limiting the window. I see more of a hail and wind threat tomorrow, but with the potential for some very spectacular storm structures given the hodographs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tornado in the OK panhandle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Tornado in the OK panhandle Between the radial velocity signature and lack of chasers on it, sheriffnado seems more likely than not, but never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Between the radial velocity signature and lack of chasers on it, sheriffnado seems more likely than not, but never know.True it doesn't look too great if its producing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 True it doesn't look too great if its producing Big tower going up just ESE of SLN now. Too bad it's heading right into the god-awful Manhattan/Junction City area, probably the most miserable region of KS to chase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Plus, the primary low starts to weaken as the best kinematics move in, further limiting the window. I see more of a hail and wind threat tomorrow, but with the potential for some very spectacular storm structures given the hodographs. Except there are already strong wind fields well before that begins to happen, the NAM is a bit weaker due to less low level backing, but still has 25-30 kts of 0-1 km shear and the GFS ups that to 30-40 kts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 28, 2013 Author Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yeah that cell they just TOR-warned in KS is a beast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Big tower going up just ESE of SLN now. Too bad it's heading right into the god-awful Manhattan/Junction City area, probably the most miserable region of KS to chase.We are about 15 mi NW of Salina. Seen a few try but fail so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yeah that cell they just TOR-warned in KS is a beast. 4500-5500 J/kg SBCAPE and 4000-4500 J/kg MLCAPE near that thing. Edit: Inflow increasing rapidly over the past two scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Yeah that cell they just TOR-warned in KS is a beast. Reflectivity signature taking up the entire county. Softball size hail possible in updated warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 The storm has already put down some tennis balls, and appears close to forming a tornado near the town of Corning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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