KSWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Gotcha... SPC's actual page hadn't updated yet... my bad. Stands in contrast to Greg Forbes thinking eastern kansas has the highest tornado threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Wednesday's setup is touchy... it looks like another case in which the GFS has significantly more backed low-level flow than the NAM, yielding a much more impressive threat. Not coincidentally, this is true yet again for TX/OK/KS on Thursday. I'm still sticking to my guns in that no single day between now and Thursday screams outbreak to me, but that localized significant events are likely on some combination of days. Of course, about 12 hours ago, today's threat looked as sure (albeit very localized) as any this week to me and it sort of fell short. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Wednesday's setup is touchy... it looks like another case in which the GFS has significantly more backed low-level flow than the NAM, yielding a much more impressive threat. Not coincidentally, this is true yet again for TX/OK/KS on Thursday. I'm still sticking to my guns in that no single day between now and Thursday screams outbreak to me, but that localized significant events are likely on some combination of days. Of course, about 12 hours ago, today's threat looked as sure (albeit very localized) as any this week to me and it sort of fell short. Well, today did have a very localized, yet very significant tornado. Based on the TIV's video and observations, that tornado was probably capable of producing EF4+ damage. Luckily, it stayed in fields. Although it did hit something because it showed up very clearly in CC as a TDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KSWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Lol, that's a huge tor area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 That's like the longest 5% tornado area I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Looks like we will target TX or Detroit tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Wow.. That is absolutely terrifying. Great for Sean/Brandon...glad they are ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 That's like the longest 5% tornado area I've ever seen. Your comment is interesting AND funny. Interesting, because I agree, and that's just a massage coverage area for a tornado risk. Does the SPC have an Outlook record book on square mile coverage for a Tornado % risk area? Funny because... this reminds me of a blooper from Maria LaRosa a couple years ago. I mean look at the shape of the risk area. Sorry for OT comment, but there might be a few live on air 'met gems' tomorrow as they describe the risk area (re: phallic shape) Relevant--> Go to Youtube and search for "The Weather Channel Host has a Dirty Mind" (don't let the audio play at work...) Hopefully this provides some laughs to those of you out on the chase today - good luck, please be safe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 It'll be interesting to hear what not only Sean and Brandon have to say about the intercept but also what Amos Magliocco thinks about it. Because if I'm not mistaken he's one of the only few people who has taken a direct hit by a tornado to his vehicle before so it'll be cool to see if he notices any similarities to his experience or not. Either way it's an incredible video and I'm glad TIV2 and the whole team are safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Hatched area potentially puts OKC and Joplin under the gun on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Hatched area potentially puts OKC and Joplin under the gun on Thursday. Why is this reminding me so much of last week...oh and the wording for Friday (plus the parameter space on the models) suggests a similar potential to the one on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Enough Tiv talk, stick to the meteorology. Someone start a new thread if they want to keep the disco going on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Any idea about where y'all are going to chase today? I do go somewhere along that OFB in Kansas, where the typical boundary enhanced shear, and strong/extreme instability (4000-5000j/kg) should be located... Also, Wednesday is very interesting to me, I've never seen that much a spread in forecasts between the SPC and Dr. Forbes... Dr. Forbes pointing to possibly a high-end event in Kansas, and the SPC probably going moderate in western OK, with not a whole lot expected in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 It'll be interesting to hear what not only Sean and Brandon have to say about the intercept but also what Amos Magliocco thinks about it. Because if I'm not mistaken he's one of the only few people who has taken a direct hit by a tornado to his vehicle before so it'll be cool to see if he notices any similarities to his experience or not. Either way it's an incredible video and I'm glad TIV2 and the whole team are safe. He made some comments on twitter last night. I kinda disagree with baro on this one as its totally related to the discussion but see his point. Anyone who thinks they can engineer a car to 100% survive any tornado is dumb tho.. Just leave it at that. Darwin and all. Hopefully these tanks are banned. Stupid **** and more people are making them. Then again if someone wants to die to get a video of dark windy rain so be if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 He made some comments on twitter last night. I kinda disagree with baro on this one as its totally related to the discussion but see his point. Anyone who thinks they can engineer a car to 100% survive any tornado is dumb tho.. Just leave it at that. Darwin and all. Hopefully these tanks are banned. Stupid **** and more people are making them. Then again if someone wants to die to get a video of dark windy rain so be if. IN years past, strictly as a watcher of the Discovery Show, Timmer and Casey used to seem to have a line they wouldn't cross, as far as intercepting tornadoes, and based on what I saw from people posting on the GR-Level whatever G2G, this was a high end tornado, possibly rated at least an EF-3 on final analysis if there was enough well engineered structures to make an assessment. Or, Casey is intercepting higher end tornadoes than he used to. On an unrelated note, about the statistic that EF-4 and EF-5's are such a tiny percentage but cause the majority of the fatalities, I suspect that is skewed by what were EF-4 and EF-5 tornadoes in reality getting lower EF ratings because they missed civilization and other things that could indicate a higher EF rating, like pavement scour, might not show up if paved roads are few and far between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 He made some comments on twitter last night. I kinda disagree with baro on this one as its totally related to the discussion but see his point. Anyone who thinks they can engineer a car to 100% survive any tornado is dumb tho.. Just leave it at that. Darwin and all. Hopefully these tanks are banned. Stupid **** and more people are making them. Then again if someone wants to die to get a video of dark windy rain so be if. I made comments? Anyways, I actually wanted to separate the discussions. If someone wants to start a new thread be my guest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I made comments? Anyways, I actually wanted to separate the discussions. If someone wants to start a new thread be my guest. No, Amos did. I'm done talking about it. People like tornado videos. I think once you've seen a few close ups you've seen them all. Getting more of the structure etc is part of the real beauty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 No, Amos did. I'm done talking about it. People like tornado videos. I think once you've seen a few close ups you've seen them all. Getting more of the structure etc is part of the real beauty. I do wish people filming tornadoes would pan up more. Dust clouds at the ground are cool, but I like seeing the cloud bases. One benefit of Dixie-Alley tornados, cloud bases low enough people can't help but film the bases. And there is something special like an LP supercell with great structure. I also like video (saw one from Nebraska once near a trailer park) of a lowered cone, but nowhere near ground contact, but seemingly randon low level condensation vortices appearing on the ground, disappearing, and new ones form. Early multiple vortices just seems cooler to watch than mile wide wedges. Strictly from a home interent user perspective. AS far as still photography, nothing beats these kind of images. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Complex forecast today, Tuesday, so I don't blame SPC a bit for a large 5% tor. Sometimes you can read between the lines using the hail chart. Note the 30% hatched hail in Kansas and also around Childress, TX. Wednesday looks messy for chasing, but if rain can get off the DL maybe some late fireworks. Thur/Fri still the best chance of more sig svr but details murky. Tuesday: Jet stream energy poking out of New Mexico will create good speed shear in/around Childress, plus thermodynamics will be excellent. Latest 12Z NAM/WRF has good low level directional shear too. Kansas once again is home to two boundaries this morning. Speed shear is not as good up north; however, low level shear will be excellent on those boundaries and instability will be there. Normally I chase the south of two boundaries, but we all know the north bdry won yesterday. Oh but the south bdry was nice on the 18th. I love Kansas! Wednesday: Ongoing convection will make it messy for chasing early. One would hope it gets east of the DL. Then intense heating would promote new "fresh" supercells. Latest 12Z NAM/WRF has better speed and directional shear over southwestern OK with a DL bulge to boot. Farther north unidirectional profiles and/or veer-back-veer profiles will be an issue. Thursday: While a high-end event is still possible, models are not showing textbook dynamics and thermodynamics juxtaposed - in contrast to Sun/Mon May 19-20. That's actually good, if you consider the Plains public, and may promote fewer total cells and easier chasing decisions. Best jet max is forecast over Kansas with excellent instability and incredible low level shear in Oklahoma. Friday: Much will depend on Thursday, and where boundaries set up. Risk is that boundary sags well south of remaining jet stream energy. However the right rear (right entrance) region of the jet stream will remain over the central Plains. If the boundary intersection is under that jet region, another severe weather day is likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 No clue where to go today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 No clue where to go today. South Bend, IN. Better step on it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 No clue where to go today. Hahaha same here. We're thinking of going towards NW Kansas for the north boundary and where the better low level shear, but confidence is low and we're attempting to leave other options open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coreyback Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 No clue where to go today. Just pick your favorite hi-res model, and hug it tight! Honestly, you could make a case for several different spots. I'm not sure there is a solid, home-run "right" answer. nrgjeff has a pretty good rundown of today. Unless I'm missing something glaringly obvious (and, admittedly, haven't dug too deep into it today), it might be time for a map and a dart board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Hahaha same here. We're thinking of going towards NW Kansas for the north boundary and where the better low level shear, but confidence is low and we're attempting to leave other options open. I think I like the upslope play best (there into CO/NE) but it could put us far from tomorrow. On a marginal day with upslope flow it's hard to argue heavily against that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I think I like the upslope play best (there into CO/NE) but it could put us far from tomorrow. On a marginal day with upslope flow it's hard to argue heavily against that area. I'd go Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles. If chase busts, I've seen on TV there is a restaurant in Amarillo where if you can eat a six ounce pound steak and potato in an hour, dinner is free. Garden variety NAM showing LCLs above 700 mb, but fat CAPE in the mid levels, (7 am sounding, GT 8ºC/km mid level lapse rates) forecast TT of almost 60, and about a 15ºC spread T/Td forecast, which could produce awesome haboob videos. Never been there, but Palo Duro is the second largest canyon in the United States and close to Amarillo in case nothing develops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Think we are staying in KS. Indecision makes the decision. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 I just glimpsed at the new 12z GFS. It looks pretty ugly again for Oklahoma Wed-Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 Marysville, KS tornado prelim EF2 according to an NWS met on the 12 o'clock news. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted May 28, 2013 Share Posted May 28, 2013 New Day 2 MDT from Southern Nebraska to the Red River with mention of supercells with the potential of strong tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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