JoMo Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Emergency management reports 48 mobile homes "damaged" near Riverton, IL. There was a TOR warning earlier there. Didn't they have a tornado there in 2006? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 ESRL RAP v2 on the SPC meso page looks dangerously more potent than the old RAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 ESRL RAP v2 on the SPC meso page looks dangerously more potent than the old RAP ScreenHunter_40 May. 27 17.05.png ScreenHunter_41 May. 27 17.06.png ScreenHunter_41 May. 27 17.05.png Those indices are off the charts. Anything that goes over there could explode rapidly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Those indices are off the charts. Anything that goes over there could explode rapidly. Oh yeah definitely. The environment around that surface low in KS is absolutely insane (If the RAP v2 is correct in it's analysis) The Tornado Environment Browser indicates that a significant tornado potential exists from south central KS to northern KS (Significant tornado cases ONLY) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Few cells starting to pop W and SW of Hastings. CU field starting in Kansas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like initiation just W of Hastings, NE. It shouldn't be much longer.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Yep already 43kft north of Alma NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 SBCIN has pretty much been wiped out Quick run down of new parameters: SCP: 44 in C KS STP (Efffective): 10 in C KS EHI: 17 in NC KS/ C KS 0-3km Helicity: 500 in C KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 A little odd they don't have the watch box up - did they think it would be capped until much later? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Just for the sake of posterity since 5/22/2004 has been appearing in the analogue package over the past 4-5 days... Here's Tornado Watch 251 from that day Similar situation, but just shifted a tad south today http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/2004/ww0251.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Needless to say, things are going to get very ugly in a hurry. SBCIN has pretty much been wiped out Quick run down of new parameters: SCP: 44 in C KS STP (Efffective): 10 in C KS EHI: 17 in NC KS/ C KS 0-3km Helicity: 500 in C KS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Supercell composite with moisture convergence Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Storm Prediction Center issues TORNADO watch till 05:00 UTC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 80/50 with NO PDS 908 WWUS20 KWNS 272150 SEL1 SPC WW 272150 KSZ000-NEZ000-280500- URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 231 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 450 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN KANSAS SOUTHERN NEBRASKA * EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON FROM 450 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... NUMEROUS TORNADOES LIKELY WITH SEVERAL INTENSE TORNADOES POSSIBLE NUMEROUS VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 4 INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY SEVERAL SIGNIFICANT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF HASTINGS NEBRASKA TO 55 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CONCORDIA KANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1). PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. && OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 227...WW 228...WW 229...WW 230... DISCUSSION...RAPID SUPERCELL DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY IN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS S CENTRAL NEB...AND ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS SHOULD FORM JUST NE OF THE TRIPLE POINT IN N CENTRAL KS WHERE LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS MAXIMIZED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS...AS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WEAKENS. THE COMBINATION OF MLCAPE OF 3500-4500 J/KG...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT...EFFECTIVE SRH OF 250-400 M2/S2...AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S WILL SUPPORT THE RISK OF A FEW STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. LATER THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...THE STORMS WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO AN MCS AND MOVE EWD/ESEWD ALONG THE RESIDUAL OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT INTO NE KS/SE NEB. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 4 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27020. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 80/50 tornado probs. That's pretty good (or bad) .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Low-level SRH is going to maximize itself in the vicinity of Hays, KS, within the hour. The net convergence in the area is very potent given the deepening surface low and the concordant backing of the low-level winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 FWIW.... That 5/22/2004 watch analogue was really good. Whats odd is that the 2004 watch has 80/40 probs with a PDS This is 80/50 with no PDS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 FWIW.... That 5/22/2004 watch analogue was really good. Whats odd is that the 2004 watch has 80/40 probs with a PDS This is 80/50 with no PDS Out of curiosity, what is the SPC's threshold for a PDS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS 355 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GOODLAND HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL COLORADO... * UNTIL 430 PM MDT * AT 352 PM MDT...A LINE OF TORNADO PRODUCING STORMS WAS LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 6 MILES NORTH OF FIRSTVIEW TO 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF WESKAN...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Out of curiosity, what is the SPC's threshold for a PDS? I don't think there is actually a magic number when it comes to PDS watches, but rather whether or not the forecaster feels that this is an exceptionally dangerous situation. There are other factors like location/population density that do come into play though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 ULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 402 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... NORTHWESTERN BOX BUTTE COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA... SOUTHWESTERN DAWES COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA... EAST CENTRAL SIOUX COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 430 PM MDT * AT 358 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR FLAHERTYS CORNER...AND MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 PDS Tornado Watches are issued at the discretion of the forecaster. There is no set threshold or number that automatically requires the issuance of a PDS watch. Obviously you'll see them in High Risk situations along with some moderate risks. They are rarely seen with SLGT risk probabilities. While there is a MDT out for hail, the tornado probs only necessitate a SLGT for coverage (not intensity). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 850mb winds and ESRH (Pink is over 600 m/s) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 I don't think there is actually a magic number when it comes to PDS watches, but rather whether or not the forecaster feels that this is an exceptionally dangerous situation. There are other factors like location/population density that do come into play though. PDS Tornado Watches are issued at the discretion of the forecaster. There is no set threshold or number that automatically requires the issuance of a PDS watch. Obviously you'll see them in High Risk situations along with some moderate risks. They are rarely seen with SLGT risk probabilities. While there is a MDT out for hail, the tornado probs only necessitate a SLGT for coverage (not intensity). That's good to know as I've never really questioned it before.. thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ICEHOCEY77 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 cell just went up east of Hays. Might be the play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Tail-end charlie along the KS/NE border has a nice hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Dr. Greg Forbes has a TOR:CON of 7 in Central/Eastern Kansas on Wednesday... Seems a bit high to me, but he's definitely more knowledgable about this kind of stuff than me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Supercell composite with moisture convergence Untitled.png Very impressive parameters indeed. Where did you find the data overlaid like that? Looks really familiar. Tail end charlie looks to be getting its act together as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Dr. Greg Forbes has a TOR:CON of 7 in Central/Eastern Kansas on Wednesday... Seems a bit high to me, but he's definitely more knowledgable about this kind of stuff than me.. I saw that also..almost makes me want to switch days off, tomorrow instead of Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Dr. Greg Forbes has a TOR:CON of 7 in Central/Eastern Kansas on Wednesday... Seems a bit high to me, but he's definitely more knowledgable about this kind of stuff than me. Seen that. Instability looks lower than the previous few days, but with that incoming powerhouse upper jet things could get interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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