tmagan Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Springfield, MO sounding 18Z 31 May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 FYI: OUN did launch a 18Z sounding a few moments ago. From OUN FB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Springfield, MO sounding 18Z 31 May. springfield_sounding.jpg Dry adiabatic from nearly 500-700mb. Similar to 16Z special launch that MPEX did. Not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Dry adiabatic from nearly 500-700mb. Similar to 16Z special launch that MPEX did. Not good. Tuning fork sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CUmet Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I've been super busy this week, so I haven't paid as much attention to things as I usually do until now. The stuff that I'm seeing on the high resolution runs (SPC WRF, HRRR, etc.) are quite alarming to say the least. The surface winds appear to back very quickly after 21z, rapidly enhancing 0-1 and 0-3 km helicities over regions that are extremely unstable and have convection initiated in the high res models. I would not be surprised at all to see this go high risk.Keep an eye on the surface obs over OK over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Wood Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I've been super busy this week, so I haven't paid as much attention to things as I usually do until now. The stuff that I'm seeing on the high resolution runs (SPC WRF, HRRR, etc.) are quite alarming to say the least. The surface winds appear to back very quickly after 21z, rapidly enhancing 0-1 and 0-3 km helicities over regions that are extremely unstable and have convection initiated in the high res models. I would not be surprised at all to see this go high risk. Keep an eye on the surface obs over OK over the next few hours. Days like this that a statewide mesonet like the one in OK can make a lot of difference. Wish more would understand they're worth the costs in these type of situations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Jesus at that hi-res guidance, that is the most in-sync I've seen them with that type of solution in a substantially long amount of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Has anyone ever seen the below two categories of tornado probabilities highlighted on an outlook? It seems as though it's common to create a larger 'RED' or 15% area or a larger pink 30% without further outlining a narrower, higher risk area. I was looking a back at the d1 soundings for 4/27/11, and the 45/60 Outlook probabilities didn't even surface there - except for a small 45% TOR prob issued around 17z. Can it really get higher than that? Is it even possible? I'm guessing that's what the SPC will do if the upgrade to high risk - add a small narrow corridor of 'Pink' 30% tor probs in C/NE OK or SW MO I've only seen 45 (Purple) once and never witnessed 60 (Blue) used in a convective outlook (with regard to the Tornado probabilities) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 There was a 60 for the Yazoo City day I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 IIRC 4/14/2012 had 45% tor probs in the 17Z outlook. Has anyone ever seen the below two categories of tornado probabilities highlighted on an outlook? It seems as though it's common to create a larger 'RED' or 15% area or a larger pink 30% without further outlining a narrower, higher risk area. I was looking a back at the d1 soundings for 4/27/11, and the 45/60 Outlook probabilities didn't even surface there. Is it even possible? I'm guessing that's what the SPC will do if the upgrade to high risk - add a small narrow corridor of 'Pink' 30% tor probs in C/NE OK or SW MO I've just never seen 45 (Purple) or 60 (Blue) used in a convective outlook (with regard to the Tornado probabilities) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Here comes my tornado watch. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0905.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 There was a 60 for the Yazoo City day I think That was on the Gallatin, TN day on April 7th, 2006. The only other days to have gone higher than 30% are 4/27/11, 5/24/11 and 4/14/12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 That was on the Gallatin, TN day on April 7th, 2006.Yeah just looked was 30 for Yazoo city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Has anyone ever seen the below two categories of tornado probabilities highlighted on an outlook? It seems as though it's common to create a larger 'RED' or 15% area or a larger pink 30% without further outlining a narrower, higher risk area. 4/7/06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadoguy11 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I think we will see at least one PDS tor watch Steven Wilkerson Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AgeeWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I don't think I've ever seen 60% hatched tor probs ever. That'd be nuts. There was a 60 for the Yazoo City day I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Symbolically the first tor warning of the day comes from N. Dakota with the upper low and observed funnel moving west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 There was a 60 for the Yazoo City day I thinkI believe that is right Sent from my DROID RAZR using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Norman, OK sounding for 18Z 31 May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ensō Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I don't think I've ever seen 60% hatched tor probs ever. That'd be nuts. April 7, 2006, 20z outlook. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/archive/2006/day1otlk_20060407_2000.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Impressive pooling of moisture over central OK south of the wind shift. Dews between 74-77 over a large area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormScotter Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Has anyone ever seen the below two categories of tornado probabilities highlighted on an outlook? It seems as though it's common to create a larger 'RED' or 15% area or a larger pink 30% without further outlining a narrower, higher risk area. I was looking a back at the d1 soundings for 4/27/11, and the 45/60 Outlook probabilities didn't even surface there - except for a small 45% TOR prob issued around 17z. Can it really get higher than that? Is it even possible? I'm guessing that's what the SPC will do if the upgrade to high risk - add a small narrow corridor of 'Pink' 30% tor probs in C/NE OK or SW MO I've only seen 45 (Purple) once and never witnessed 60 (Blue) used in a convective outlook (with regard to the Tornado probabilities) April 14, 2012: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 18z soundings.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 That was on the Gallatin, TN day on April 7th, 2006. The only other days to have gone higher than 30% are 4/27/11, 5/24/11 and 4/14/12. That's great feedback - thanks Andy and gang. 60 probs is an extremely rare event - that's just incredible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 70/50 tornado probs. http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0260.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 19Z Oklahoma dew point temperatures, wind barbs, streamlines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 North Central Oklahoma at 3z this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Hearing whisperings of extending the MDT risk for tornadoes well into MO via the Norman pow–wow this afternoon Shockingly enough, I could see 45 percent tornado probs near the OKC metro for the first time in a long while. Sent from Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SluggerWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Hearing whisperings of extending the MDT risk for tornadoes well into MO via the Norman pow–wow this afternoon Sent from Tapatalk The 3 KM EHI in central MO has increased from 5 to 9 in the last 15 minutes, Central Oklahoma from 4 to 7 (viewing this on the SPC meso page). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Tulsa's tornado probs keep going up: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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