MGorse Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Did SPC or any other outfit predict an outbreak? The guidance seems to be suggesting probability of severe, with the potential for a few tornadoes. TWC has been using the word outbreak pretty much all week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Considering that the current SPC outlook isn't even on the upper boundary of a moderate risk, the discussion of upgrade to high risk is quite pointless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Considering that the current SPC outlook isn't even on the upper boundary of a moderate risk, the discussion of upgrade to high risk is quite pointless. And Bingo was his name-o. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 1630 Update takes MOD risk out of NW AR and extends it slightly NE into SW MO (due to hail)... 30% wind and hatching added from around OKC NE into SE KS and South Central MO including Joplin but just SW of St. Louis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Larger 15% added ...REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK POSSIBLE TODAY OVER PARTS OFCENTRAL/EASTERN OK...SOUTHEAST KS...AND SOUTHWEST MO. VERY LARGEHAIL...WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS...AND A FEW STRONGTORNADOES/VIOLENT ARE POSSIBLE... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 well crap..... 15% hatched tornado risk here with special Regional outbreak wording and a possible upgrade to High Risk in Central/Eastern OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Considering that the current SPC outlook isn't even on the upper boundary of a moderate risk, the discussion of upgrade to high risk is quite pointless. They're watching you... and trolling you. GIVEN THESE PARAMETERS...IT APPEARS THE THREAT OF A FEW STRONG/VIOLENT TORNADOES ARE IN PLACE. HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Considering that the current SPC outlook isn't even on the upper boundary of a moderate risk, the discussion of upgrade to high risk is quite pointless. Oh the irony! HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 They're watching you... and trolling you. Seriously. I saw that and facepalmed to my post. I guess I meant upgrade at THIS update at least haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Oh the irony! HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO. And I thought we were going to have no high risk this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
scoresman Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Oh the irony! HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBABILITIES OVER THIS REGION...AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN OK WILL BE CONSIDERED FOR AN UPGRADE TO HIGH RISK AT 20Z IF SHORTER-TERM MESOSCALE MODELS MAINTAIN THIS SCENARIO. Heh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
westhope84 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Instability FTW. Going to be a scary day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 Incredible. If something doesn't change drastically between now and 20z, we're seeing a high risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Great, now I have to pack up the important stuff in the apartment again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Incredible. If something doesn't change drastically between now and 20z, we're seeing a high risk. Eh... probably, I'm just not sure it will be warranted. That type of UH signature existed over C OK yesterday, too. To me, the consensus of the current convection-allowing models suggests storm coverage may be more numerous than is ideal for a violent outbreak in OK. I certainly see the high ceiling today, though; just seems it's a lot more conditional than a 5/24/11 or 5/10/10. Great, now I have to pack up the important stuff in the apartment again. It's convenient in that that I forgot to get the important stuff out of my bag when I got home last night, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 If nothing changes by 20z, I fear that we have a significant outbreak of strong tornadoes in store for the OKC metro area and portions of MO. This could be an extremely dangerous situation. 4km NAM/12km NAM/WRF-ARW/WRF-NMM/NSSL WRF/HRRR/RAP all depict an extremely dangerous situation, RAP 4km WRF WRF ARW WRF NMM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Well, something better change... as the majority of the models don't look good at all for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK 1153 AM CDT FRI MAY 31 2013 ..SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT... .DISCUSSION... ANOTHER ROUND OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER IS IN THE OFFING FOR EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE LIFE THREATENING FLOOD WILL RAMP UP TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE VICINITY OF A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT AND DRY LINE TO THE WEST OF THE AREA AND BECOME RAPIDLY SEVERE. AT THIS TIME...THE STATIONARY FRONT IS LOCATED NEAR A KTOP-KICT-KGAG LINE. THE DRY LINE IS WORKING INTO SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA CURRENTLY. THE FRONT WILL ONLY BE MAKING SLOW PROGRESS TO THE SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY WHILE THE DRYLINE WORKS WEST. THE AIRMASS IN ADVANCE OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS EXTREMELY MOIST AND UNSTABLE WITH ABUNDANT DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA. DISCRETE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE STRONG CAP ERODES. THESE SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. THESE SUPERCELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VIOLENT LONG TRACK TORNADOES...HAIL TO THE SIZE OF BASEBALLS AND 80 MPH WINDS. EVENTUALLY THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A CLUSTER OF STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS AND SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST WITH TIME TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL CONTINUE THOUGH THE NIGHT WITH ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER POSSIBLE. HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING BEGIN TO BECOME MORE OF CONCERN BEGINNING TONIGHT AS THE STORMS REPEATEDLY MOVE ACROSS THE SAME AREAS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Stay safe, JoMo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Rather concerning for the OKC metro area, especially since the LLJ will be exploding by this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 latest HRRR showing OKC metro area with the best helicity values: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Eh... probably, I'm just not sure it will be warranted. That type of UH signature existed over C OK yesterday, too. To me, the consensus of the current convection-allowing models suggests storm coverage may be more numerous than is ideal for a violent outbreak in OK. I certainly see the high ceiling today, though; just seems it's a lot more conditional than a 5/24/11 or 5/10/10. It's convenient in that that I forgot to get the important stuff out of my bag when I got home last night, though. Just as things yesterday went a bit off expectations of forecasters, today is seeing the opposite as warm h7 advection will keep area capped. Notable trough in mid levels and cooling over the TX/OK panhandles arrives later today. The increasingly backed flow later with the SLP / response to the wave actually produces something that resembles 5/20 in a sense later for the OKC area at the surface. An untapped CAPE field with strengthening LLJ is the exact opposite of yesterday. For all of those worried about waiting for the nocturnal jet to respond, this isn't actually that process, entirely. The low-mid level gradient actually intensifies with the upstream wave which begins increasing the flow. This isn't simply the inertial/diurnal cycle and the exceptionally high CAPE fields argue that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 16z RAP popping 3km EHI values of over 19 The potential for strong-violent tornadoes has markedly increased since yesterday for OK/MO. Hopefully folks in the area realize the potential and are aware of the weather this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Just as things yesterday went a bit off expectations of forecasters, today is seeing the opposite as warm h7 advection will keep area capped. Notable trough in mid levels and cooling over the TX/OK panhandles arrives later today. The increasingly backed flow later with the SLP / response to the wave actually produces something that resembles 5/20 in a sense later for the OKC area at the surface. An untapped CAPE field with strengthening LLJ is the exact opposite of yesterday. For all of those worried about waiting for the nocturnal jet to respond, this isn't actually that process, entirely. The low-mid level gradient actually intensifies with the upstream wave which begins increasing the flow. This isn't simply the inertial/diurnal cycle and the exceptionally high CAPE fields argue that as well. interesting. Thanks for the clarification, HM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I disagree. I can't access the archived soundings from the RAP on TwisterData (they've been having issues with the RAP output all week), but I can access the NAM and GFS, and the 12z guidance from yesterday didn't come close to depicting the messiness of the hodos that we saw verify. It isn't something new in meteorology for two different mets to see two different things from the same product. I also understand that we see with our brains and all of that, so I'm trying to keep my thoughts balanced in that regard. Having said that, I'm not sure how you can say both the NAM and GFS at 12z didn't indicate those issues with the wind profile at OUN, 18z. Both indicated the VBV issue and lack of low-level winds during the early afternoon. http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/GFS_3_2013053012_F06_35.0000N_97.5000W.png http://www.twisterdata.com/data/tmp/scratch/models/processing/NAM_218_2013053012_F06_35.0000N_97.5000W.png Sure, modeled soundings will smooth things over and never look as detailed as a real sounding. But the issues were certainly there. Thunderstorms got started pretty much at the "wrong" time for a localized outbreak of tornadoes in OKC (a nice save). Being on the heels of something favorable as the trends suggest "things get even more unfavorable" is not the best thing. I wonder how yesterday would have worked out if thunderstorms didn't initiate as early. The s/w cooling response on the DL yesterday got things going pretty freakin' early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Rick Smith - WCM at Norman posted this on the Skywarn Facebook Page: I'm not trying to freak anyone out (yet - that may come a little later today), but this is one of those days when the decisions you make could be life-or-death. We may not see a single tornado (I'm hoping!!) but if a tornado forms it could be very dangerous, including the OKC metro-Moore-Norman area. The danger peaks in the 5pm to 8pm timeframe. Have a plan, stay alert and above all do not wait too long to react when the warnings come. If you feel compelled to drive somewhere to be safe, you CANNOT wait until the warning is issued. You need to be in that place before the storms! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 interesting. Thanks for the clarification, HM. No problem. I also do agree with what you posted, in terms of waiting for the nocturnal jet to aid in low-level shear. On 5/20, we had something similar to today in a sense, where the mean LLJ was east of OKC (putting the area on the fringe). But, the western-edge ends up "expanding and increasing westwardly" in response to the next wave. IF this occurs and you see the formation of a DL bulge / enhanced backed winds with lowering pressures, then we will likely see some strong tornadoes (and with later timing than 5/20). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 16 UTC experimental sounding from Norman by the MPEX group http://catalog.eol.ucar.edu/mpex/research/38/509/21719/23157936 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 The 100 kt 300 mb jet currently nosing from se CO into sw KS frightens me enough. Amazing for May 31. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 FYI: OUN did launch a 18Z sounding a few moments ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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