jojo762 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Where'd you see that? It's not on the AFD, since that isn't updated till 8Z usually, not on the HWO either, at least when I check 5mins ago... Oh, I'm just on my iPod, so all those options at the top of the OUN page don't show up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dljuly3 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 NSSL 4 km WRF tomorrow at 23Z. Seeing the hooking features show up again, though they don't stick around for quite as long as they did on the scary May 19th run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 After the last two days that have under performed pretty badly, I'm going to remain pretty pessimistic about today. Seemed like thursday wouldnt under perform because of the isolated nature of the storms, but the wind fields near the DL turned out to be not favorable enough for tornado development. And Wednesday of course was already known to have potential to not be a big tornado producer a few days in advance because of the unfavorable hodographs, which supported messy storm modes, but did portray a ton of shear. However if things do come to fruition, a particularly dangerous situation COULD develop for OKC/ TSA and areas in between, and even possibly SW'tern Missouri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthernNJ Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Brinkley-Wheatley AR had very short notice of a strong signature in their area moments ago. Hope nothing is going on with that one. BRINKLEY AR HOUSE DESTROYED IN BRINKLEY ON ARMSTRONG LANE. SHED DESTROYED IN TOWN. SEVERAL TREES DOWN ON HIGHWAY 70 JUST EAST OF TOWN. The report was listed as occurring at 1245 AM CDT. A TOR was issued at 1253 AM CDT. This storm, from my vantage point, first acquired a warning-quality meso at 1157 when it was about 6 miles north of Clarendon. It weakened through 1230, but came back in a hurry at the 1241 scan. A warning could have been issued at this time, but may not have done much good as it would have been a few seconds before the likely tornado hit the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 At 7am surface winds are out of the due south, at least at my house and here downtown. Just above the surface winds are already screaming out of the SW. The clouds are absolutely flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 1800 UTC KOUN sounding shows a messier than expected wind profile, which probably explains the lack of tornadoes. I don't agree really. I thought the modeling, while never perfect, indicated those issues both with the directional component and the speed component in the low to mid levels. Around the time you were suggesting yesterday was the most impressive setup of the year, the 6z and 12z NAM / GFS pretty much had the right 6hr forecast with the OUN 18z sounding. Between the wind issues and the subsidence, we sort of dodged a bullet (not trying to downplay the actual tornadoes yesterday). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 15% hatched tor SW to NEover central OK for Friday You worn out yet man? It's terrible we can't get these things west into better terrain, away from populated areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKStorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 SPC dropped from 15% Tor to 10% at 0745 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Key info bolded, very bullish for chasing but my heart is already breaking for OKC. Hope we're wrong. From a former OKC Met, about tomorrow's setup. Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman) ...This time around things are more in-phase unlike the last two days... ... it appears the only limiting factor will be weak mid level winds although we'll see plenty of directional shear and extreme instability which can overcome the weaker winds... C OK will also be the entrance region of the upper jet this time around so I expect explosive storm development and a lot of rotating updrafts with supercells moving through the OKC metro area and along the I-35 corridor once again. ME: Today Oklahoma is in the right entrance (right rear) of the jet max departing Kansas. Yesterday OK was in the right exit (right front) which is subsidence. Today OK has rising motion from jet streak. Plus, new jetlet is curved coming in from Colorado. On curved jet streaks, entire front/exit is lift. One could argue subtle kissing jets over Oklahoma. Sounds exciting for storm chasing, but not good for the public. EDIT: I'm almost shocked by the 13Z SPC. About falling out of my chair. Prefer the 06Z. I'm not out there this event, so I have no dog in the hunt. Today will feature strong tornadoes, period. 06Z SPC also notes slightly falling heights (700/500/etc.) after mid-afternoon; yesterday was rising. Surface to 850 winds, incl. 925, back after 21z today. They did not really back yesterday. Everything from surface to upper levels is more bullish for chasers today. If you got minute, post a little something on social media for your friends in Oklahoma. Even if you're not from there, who knows who knows people there... Finally looks like a boundary is just north of I-44, parallel to the Interstate, on visible imagery these first few frames of daylight. It was slowly sinking south at sunrise. It should stop around midday as south winds increase. Also that upstream shortwave out of Colorado will help put the brakes on the boundary as surface-850 winds back this afternoon. Supercells may unfortunately impact OKC Metro right on boundary intersection. First 1-2 sups south of intersection may be more isolated for chasing. Figure 3rd and 4th south could suffer similar struggles as the end of the line Thursday. That being said, today/Friday will be a tornado day on the supercells closer to the boundary intersection. Good luck, think of OKC, and be safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Winds are backed near and south of OKC towards 00z, decent s/w and height falls moving in at that time as well. Mid level winds are a little weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Can't say I've ever seen a morning sounding like this before. Supercell composite of 40.4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Sam, it looks much of that low-level shear departs as the llj weakens. While some of the mid-level wind fields look a bit better today than yesterday, I have concerns about the low-level shear in the OKC to Tulsa area being enough to spawn strong tornadoes. I'm almost wondering if the greater tornado threat is further east into Missouri and southern Illinois. They have considerably less instability but much better low-level shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Sam, it looks much of that low-level shear departs as the llj weakens. While some of the mid-level wind fields look a bit better today than yesterday, I have concerns about the low-level shear in the OKC to Tulsa area being enough to spawn strong tornadoes. I'm almost wondering if the greater tornado threat is further east into Missouri and southern Illinois. They have considerably less instability but much better low-level shear. Yep, and I think we'll face the same issues as we did yesterday with weaknesses in the wind profile by the afternoon. Exactly the concerns I mentioned yesterday morning too. Really this sounding was just ornamental lol. Just wanted to show it off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Yep, and I think we'll face the same issues as we did yesterday with weaknesses in the wind profile by the afternoon. Exactly the concerns I mentioned yesterday morning too. Really this sounding was just ornamental lol. Just wanted to show it off It is an awesome sounding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Sam, it looks much of that low-level shear departs as the llj weakens. While some of the mid-level wind fields look a bit better today than yesterday, I have concerns about the low-level shear in the OKC to Tulsa area being enough to spawn strong tornadoes. I'm almost wondering if the greater tornado threat is further east into Missouri and southern Illinois. They have considerably less instability but much better low-level shear. I'll cautiously say that the RAP STP seems to be stressing MO to Southern IL up till evening but then increases the potential for much of OK around 00z on. And I know that many here discount the RAP. Today will be nowcasting in my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 You worn out yet man? It's terrible we can't get these things west into better terrain, away from populated areas.Yeah just a little. I do wish it was over KS or north. But we'll make do. Prob our last plains chase of the year.. Looks like we will follow the sys back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I'll cautiously say that the RAP STP seems to be stressing MO to Southern IL up till evening but then increases the potential for much of OK around 00z on. And I know that many here discount the RAP. Today will be nowcasting in my opinion. I'm always kind of skeptical on waiting for the nocturnal llj to ramp up to get the necessary shear for tornadoes. You'd like a good amount of shear in place before that extra boost. It really shortens the window of opportunity before elevation becomes an issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FSMweather Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 A catastrophic flooding situation hit Y City,Arkansas last night. http://5newsonline.com/2013/05/31/scott-county-sheriff-found-dead-after-major-flooding/ Several people missing and bodies have been found. They have not speculated on how many are dead because search and rescue is still underway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I love reading the different opinions on days like today. You have some basically saying big time risk and others saying wind shear and profiles will not be sufficient for sustained and significant updrafts...great to read both POV's leading into this sort of situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OKpowdah Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 12z HRRR has a line of supercells crossing 35 from Norman on north by 23z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 I don't agree really. I thought the modeling, while never perfect, indicated those issues both with the directional component and the speed component in the low to mid levels. Around the time you were suggesting yesterday was the most impressive setup of the year, the 6z and 12z NAM / GFS pretty much had the right 6hr forecast with the OUN 18z sounding. Between the wind issues and the subsidence, we sort of dodged a bullet (not trying to downplay the actual tornadoes yesterday). I disagree. I can't access the archived soundings from the RAP on TwisterData (they've been having issues with the RAP output all week), but I can access the NAM and GFS, and the 12z guidance from yesterday didn't come close to depicting the messiness of the hodos that we saw verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I don't think today will be a major tornado outbreak by any means. The waning LLJ is certainly an issue that will hamper widespread tornadoes. However, these sups are going to be working with some big time CAPE and could create their own micro enviroment conducive for a tornado. I will be very surprised if at least one of these cells doesn't put down a strong tornado. Did SPC or any other outfit predict an outbreak? The guidance seems to be suggesting probability of severe, with the potential for a few tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Did SPC or any other outfit predict an outbreak? The guidance seems to be suggesting probability of severe, with the potential for a few tornadoes. No, I didn't say anything about the SPC using the word "outbreak". Some media, chasers, etc are trying to point towards an outbreak, but I guess that's really nothing new. There's already a chaser, I won't name his name, screaming for an upgrade to high risk for C.OK based on the 12z high res run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 No, I didn't say anything about the SPC using the word "outbreak". Some media, chasers, etc are trying to point towards an outbreak, but I guess that's really nothing new. There's already a chaser, I won't name his name, screaming for an upgrade to high risk for C.OK based on the 12z high res run. At this point I don't see how they can warrant an upgrade to high risk. One strong tornado and a few smaller ones doesn't make it a "high" risk type event. I think sometimes its easy to lose sight fo that, especially with some of the conditional issues that appear to be shrinking the threat today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ground Scouring Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 Upward vertical velocities, instability, and low-level shear do not look to be juxtaposed very well today...which could limit, fortunately, the tornado threat in the OKC metroplex. Most of the forcing is focused just west of the dry line, with weaker low-level shear nearby. To me, the mid-level jet pattern still seems to induce a potential for some subsidence--not as much as yesterday's, but still enough, when combined with the anemic shear, to disrupt supercellular activity. I would focus more upon locally heavy precipitation in the OKC area, unless nowcasting later in the day shows a potentially favorable indication for localized tornado activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
soonertrey Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 At this point I don't see how they can warrant an upgrade to high risk. One strong tornado and a few smaller ones doesn't make it a "high" risk type event. I think sometimes its easy to lose sight fo that, especially with some of the conditional issues that appear to be shrinking the threat today. Yeah, I agree 100% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 At this point I don't see how they can warrant an upgrade to high risk. One strong tornado and a few smaller ones doesn't make it a "high" risk type event. I think sometimes its easy to lose sight fo that, especially with some of the conditional issues that appear to be shrinking the threat today. agreed. I could see mod risk where they have it and maybe stretch it northwards a bit to southern IL and IN due to gusts. but this is definitely not a high-risk day. I have seen worse. that being said though, for MN and IA later this afternoon into tonight, it could get a bit interesting on the rim of the entering 500 cutoff low. but that's probably reserved for the next forum east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 agreed. I could see mod risk where they have it and maybe stretch it northwards a bit to southern IL and IN due to gusts. but this is definitely not a high-risk day. I have seen worse. that being said though, for MN and IA later this afternoon into tonight, it could get a bit interesting on the rim of the entering 500 cutoff low. but that's probably reserved for the next forum east. I'd consider bringing the 10% tornado into SE IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted May 31, 2013 Share Posted May 31, 2013 I'd consider bringing the 10% tornado into SE IL. I could go with that, given what's out there at the moment. but not too much more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 31, 2013 Author Share Posted May 31, 2013 It's interesting how with the focus being on OK yesterday, wrn/cntl AR rather quietly had a pretty significant tornado outbreak. LZK mentions the possibility of at least a dozen tornadoes having occurred in their CWA. Some have touched on it here, but I'd far as to say srn MO might be a "sleeper" event today. The shear profiles look phenomenal south of the front from Joplin all the way to St. Louis and into IL. The key will be whether or not we see tremendous upscale growth or if we see clusters of supercells like with saw in AR yesterday. If I'm a forecaster at SPC, I extend the 10% hatched to at least St. Louis, and perhaps even consider reintroducing the 15% hatched area but doing so over MO instead of OK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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