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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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There were chasers on it live, and nobody was burned, lol.

There is a lot of running to the high end overall tho. I think having dual pol might be making it worse. Early reports are often horrible.
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Damage really seems pretty minor.

 

I sort of wish there had been a chopper/TV chasers on it live so someone would finally have gotten burned by making EF-rating judgements on-air from looking at a tornado.

Yea it's tough to tell just from looking at a tornado in many cases.

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From a former OKC Met, about tomorrow's setup.

 

Aaron Tuttle Meteorologist (weatherman)

Friday Severe Weather Update (more tornadoes expected): They say 3rd time's the charm. It appears all the ingredients will be present once again across C OK for more supercell storms producing tornadoes. 

 This time around things are more in-phase unlike the last two days. Remember day one we had storms pop early out ahead of the main line which stabilized the atmosphere and prevented tornadoes from occurring with the 2nd wave. Day 2, today, storms fired off too early along the dryling due to the very weak CAP and the parameters needed for tornadoes didn't peak until early evening and by then most of the storms were out of the area. 

 Day 3, tomorrow, it appears the only limiting factor will be weak mid level winds although we'll see plenty of directional shear and extreme instability which can overcome the weaker winds. Throw in a surface boundary to work with and it spells trouble. The CAP should prevent any early storm development, so the show... will be a late afternoon/evening event like we normally see around here. That will be when the tornado threat is highest. C OK will also be the entrance region of the upper jet this time around so I expect explosive storm development and a lot of rotating updrafts with supercells moving through the OKC metro area and along the I-35 corridor once again. If I had to pick the highest area to see tornadoes it would be smack dab in the middle of the state, ie, the greater OKC metro area and points south, north, and east a bit.

Tuttle is a good met. He is a pessimistic lean, so I give a lot of credence to what he is saying for tomorrow.

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Look at this structure on the Pauls Valley cell!!!

Nice! We already checked into a hotel lol.

Thanks! The chaser convergence was CRAZY on that cell...though some of the people may not have been chasers.

And I guess at this point, those structure shots are all 'been there, done that' for you guys haha.

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Cool pictures guys!

 

Speaking of horizontal vorticity...you guys should have seen the clouds out here at my place tonight...I've seen inflow tails before and quite a bit in my day...

 

But I don't think I've ever seen as many surface parcels randomly rising up to the thunderstorms in my life.  As I pulled into the neighborhood there was a large barrel cloud (dunno what else to call it) just rolling intensely very near the surface, perhaps a couple hundred feet off the ground with the top of this huge cloud at about 500 ft...it rolled for probably 5 to 7 minutes and slowly lifted to the base of a thunderstorm just to my north...later on (bout 20 mins) went back outside and there were five of what appeared to be large tail clouds with surface parcels just being sucked up into these storms.  Power air dynamics in place today...

 

If the cap is indeed stronger tomorrow, and air dynamics are even better, people will need to stay very weather aware.

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Thanks! The chaser convergence was CRAZY on that cell...though some of the people may not have been chasers.

And I guess at this point, those structure shots are all 'been there, done that' for you guys haha.

So what? It NEVER gets old...LOVE IT!

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Thanks! The chaser convergence was CRAZY on that cell...though some of the people may not have been chasers.

And I guess at this point, those structure shots are all 'been there, done that' for you guys haha.

 

I'd probably have gone for it.. I love structure! I think it's more that after two straight weeks of chasing, plus a long day already by 7:30p, the motivation is a little bit less. When we planned three weeks this year I think that was more insurance time in case there was a stretch of crap etc. We ate dinner with some other chasers from MT and SD.. we were all looking at the radar wondering about it at times. If it had produced or something we'd have not been happy lol. At that pt in the day was sort of taking the risk those cells would do what most of the others did and it seems that was the case. Seed, bleed, etc. Kind of a frustrating day at times but I count it as a successful chase.

 

edit: forgot wx_chip is on the board. we ate with him!

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17X7uYI.jpg

 

 

Had this gnarly cloud blow over us today, interestingly we didn't get a bit of rain, what causes structure like this?

looks like a rotating updraft that never really got going strong or the remnants of something bigger like that. in the tx ph yesterday there was a small 'supercell' that we went after which ultimately ended up looking like the worlds smallest LP while it fell apart (and kind of like that--at least from what i can tell from the picture).

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More severe weather and heavy rain is expected on Friday as a slow moving storm system moves into the area. The greatest risk of severe weather will be late in the afternoon and evening with tornadoes, large Hail, damaging winds and heavy flooding rains will all be possible.

We will start chasing eastern Oklahoma and Tulsa OK.

image_full1.gif

RAP_255_2013053104_F18_DPTC_850_MB_zps44

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Wow. OUN using the "violent" word. They must be extremely concerned to use that language.

Makes me think there may be a rather small High Risk area in the outlook upcoming.

Where'd you see that? It's not on the AFD, since that isn't updated till 8Z usually, not on the HWO either, at least when I check 5mins ago...
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Where'd you see that? It's not on the AFD, since that isn't updated till 8Z usually, not on the HWO either, at least when I check 5mins ago...

 

Go on the webpage and click on "Early Friday Evening" in the graphical forecast maps that pop up on the front page.

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