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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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On to tomorrow...

 

Hi-res models, including the SREF look very potent around the 21-03z time frame. 

 

Not jumping on any "outbreak" bandwagons by any means due to the past couple of busts, but we may see the usual lone supercell that puts down a monster tornado

 

 

 

 

 

Here's a TEXTBOOK fat CAPE sounding for the archives...

 

 

(Image Courtesy: Michael Dross) 

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THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

  WESTERN CHEROKEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

  SOUTHWESTERN MAYES COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

  SOUTHEASTERN ROGERS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

  NORTHERN WAGONER COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

 

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

 

* AT 902 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A

  TORNADO WAS LOCATED 14 MILES WEST OF WAGONER...MOVING EAST AT 25   

  MPH. THIS STORM PRODUCED A LARGE TORNADO IN EAST BROKEN ARROW

  AND MAY PRODUCE ANOTHER TORNADO AT ANY TIME.
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So here's a few pics from the office today with the first line of storms that moved through the Tulsa area...pardon the grainy nature of the pics, I was shooting through a dirty tinted window...

 

 

IMG_0079-L.jpg

 

IMG_0080-2-L.jpg

 

IMG_0082-L.jpg

 

IMG_0092-L.jpg

 

 

 

These next few were from my driveway this evening...

 

This one is the storm that just put down the tor in Broken Arrow

IMG_9979%20%282%29-L.jpg

 

This is the storm back to the NE of me or due north of the one that put down the tornado in Broken Arrow

IMG_9975%20%282%29-2-L.jpg

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Hearing lots of damage calls on the scanner feed out of TUL

Buddy of mine just called me who was on that storm.  Said it looked like EF1 type damage.  Shingles missing on a few roofs, limbs down, nothing significant that he's seen yet.

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I live in midtown Tulsa. Watched the circulation develop just south of me. Chased it for a couple miles and saw a dramatic lowering to the southeast (Broken Arrow).

As the circulation developed, inflow immediately cut off torrential rain and raised the temp by at least 6-7 degrees in less than a minute. Quite an experience for an amateur weenie.

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Screen grab of the Broken Arrow tornado from earlier

Damage really seems pretty minor.

 

I sort of wish there had been a chopper/TV chasers on it live so someone would finally have gotten burned by making EF-rating judgements on-air from looking at a tornado.

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Damage really seems pretty minor.

 

I sort of wish there had been a chopper/TV chasers on it live so someone would finally have gotten burned by making EF-rating judgements on-air from looking at a tornado.

Velocity couplet heading into West Siloam Springs should be getting more of the attention at this point IMO.

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Damage really seems pretty minor.

 

I sort of wish there had been a chopper/TV chasers on it live so someone would finally have gotten burned by making EF-rating judgements on-air from looking at a tornado.

There were chasers on it live, and nobody was burned, lol.

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From a former OKC Met, about tomorrow's setup.

 

Friday Severe Weather Update (more tornadoes expected): They say 3rd time's the charm. It appears all the ingredients will be present once again across C OK for more supercell storms producing tornadoes. 

 This time around things are more in-phase unlike the last two days. Remember day one we had storms pop early out ahead of the main line which stabilized the atmosphere and prevented tornadoes from occurring with the 2nd wave. Day 2, today, storms fired off too early along the dryling due to the very weak CAP and the parameters needed for tornadoes didn't peak until early evening and by then most of the storms were out of the area. 

 Day 3, tomorrow, it appears the only limiting factor will be weak mid level winds although we'll see plenty of directional shear and extreme instability which can overcome the weaker winds. Throw in a surface boundary to work with and it spells trouble. The CAP should prevent any early storm development, so the show... will be a late afternoon/evening event like we normally see around here. That will be when the tornado threat is highest. C OK will also be the entrance region of the upper jet this time around so I expect explosive storm development and a lot of rotating updrafts with supercells moving through the OKC metro area and along the I-35 corridor once again. If I had to pick the highest area to see tornadoes it would be smack dab in the middle of the state, ie, the greater OKC metro area and points south, north, and east a bit. 
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