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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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This one will make a run at Little Rock.

 

 LZK issues Tornado Warning for Pulaski, Saline [AR] till 8:30 PM CDT ...AT 754 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS SEVERE STORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST OF LAKE BALBOA...OR 3 MILES EAST OF HOT SPRINGS VILLAGE. DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED THIS SEVERE STORM MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

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getting kind of concerned about the southern warned cell approaching Little Rock, if circulation can hold together, it may get into a area that will allow increasing inflow winds, thus tightening the circulation.

 

Edit: although with the next scan the northern storm shows a better couplet

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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0891
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0809 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN OK...SWRN MO THROUGH WRN AND CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 253...

   VALID 310109Z - 310215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 253 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...TORNADO WATCH 253 WILL LIKELY NEED TO REPLACED BY ANOTHER
   TORNADO WATCH BEFORE ITS EXPIRATION TIME OF 02Z THAT WILL INCLUDE
   MUCH OF AR...AND POSSIBLY NERN OK.

   DISCUSSION...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING WITHIN ZONE
   OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF WARM FRONT ACROSS CNTRL AR NEXT FEW
   HOURS AS WELL AS FARTHER NORTH INTO NWRN AR AND NERN OK. DEEP LAYER
   SHEAR AROUND 40 KT REMAINS SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS. A STRENGTHENING LLJ WITH LARGE HODOGRAPHS WILL SUPPORT A
   THREAT FOR LOW LEVEL MESOCYCLONES AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WITH
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPING WITHIN THE VERY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER. LOSS OF
   DIABATIC HEATING MIGHT RESULT IN A GENERAL DECREASE IN OVERALL STORM
   INTENSITIES...BUT THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS. SOME STORMS MAY
   CONTINUE TO POSE A SEVERE THREAT THROUGH MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY THOSE
   LOCATED OVER SCNTRL AR NEAR THE WARM FRONT WHERE MOIST SLY INFLOW
   REMAINS UNOBSTRUCTED.

   ..DIAL/KERR.. 05/31/2013

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