baroclinic_instability Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 What do you think their primary concern is regarding initiation/convection? The info I'm looking at seems to warrant a 15% hatched area, as you stated those hodo's are really impressive. Always plenty of time left today for an upgrade...but I'd definitely be worried about the potential for long track tornadoes today. Tornadic storms will be moving far too slow given the fully backed low level flow, so long tracked tornadoes unlikely. I am always scared of these upslope events. The worst outbreak I saw when I was at North Platte was a similar event. The end result was discrete supercells from afternoon to midnight...and a stack of 60+ warnings the next day to verify. A big tor outbreak is probably not likely, but this day will likely end with a swath of high end hail/wind reports and the possibility of a few strong tors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brettjrob Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 12z NAM rolling in has some of the sickest looking hodographs I have seen in the plains in a long time. These quasi upslope events are always tricky events to forecast since initiation is not always associated with a well defined boundary, but today has serious potential for a long lived supercell event. A chasers dream today if storms don't cluster early. Even if they do, the nature of these events can lend themselves to multiple rounds as clusters form farther E with repeat rounds of DMC farther W. Today could troll us chasers rather hard, given the potential "quasi-upslope" initiation mechanism you mentioned. I think everyone and their dog will converge on SLN by mid afternoon, and I'll probably be among them. But there's a non-negligible chance that the best daylight storm could be much farther W in that more upslope/wrap-around regime. Same kind of thing happened on 2011-06-19... not sure whether you were working at LBF for that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Today could troll us chasers rather hard, given the potential "quasi-upslope" initiation mechanism you mentioned. I think everyone and their dog will converge on SLN by mid afternoon, and I'll probably be among them. But there's a non-negligible chance that the best daylight storm could be much farther W in that more upslope/wrap-around regime. Same kind of thing happened on 2011-06-19... not sure whether you were working at LBF for that? Man you are good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Tornadic storms will be moving far too slow given the fully backed low level flow, so long tracked tornadoes unlikely. I am always scared of these upslope events. The worst outbreak I saw when I was at North Platte was a similar event. The end result was discrete supercells from afternoon to midnight...and a stack of 60+ warnings the next day to verify. A big tor outbreak is probably not likely, but this day will likely end with a swath of high end hail/wind reports and the possibility of a few strong tors. Thank you for some clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 There's a bump in my CAPE! Looks like a very pronounced dryline bulge in Kansas, south of a moist sector in Nebraska. (There seems to be a lot of CAPE north of the stationary front.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 This setup tomorrow is a bit reminiscent of the Hallam event in 2004 albeit shifted a bit further south with the same kind of broad, low amplitude wave passing through a highly unstable warm sector, and a sfc low in a rather similar position and orientation. It is the number four analog with CIPS tonight. Yeah unfortunately these two setups are all too similar synoptically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 FWIW, the HRRR initiates an HP Supercell in NC Kansas around 4PM, and keeps it fairly discrete for several hours... It also develops a very isolated storm farther south down the DL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 And boom goes the dynamite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Gezz... Everybody is in SLN/Salina today. The roads are going to be a mess when things get busy this afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OUGrad05 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 And boom goes the dynamite. Hell of a cell in the Woodward area...wow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Hell of a cell in the Woodward area...wow... And cells W and SW of OKC. Not what Moore needs to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Looks like the AmericanWx caravan is headed for Russell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted May 27, 2013 Author Share Posted May 27, 2013 Latest rap and hrrr show next to nothing in kansas, all activity in southern Nebraska ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Missed that frame somehow. Oops. Does seem.slightly farther north though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaser11 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Moderate Risk for North East Kansas areas, for tornadoes, large hail, and damaging winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 SPC WRF *IF* this were to verify, it would obviously be a dangerous situation in the southern regions of todays risk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Beautiful moisture coma head 2m dewpoints and 10m winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Only about 2 o'clock in Kansas and SBCAPE is over 4,000, supercell composite is already 16, SIGTOR is up to 4, and EHI is starting to go off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0819NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0200 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013AREAS AFFECTED...NEB PANHANDLE...W-CNTRL NEB...NE CO...NW KSCONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELYVALID 271900Z - 272000ZPROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENTSUMMARY...TSTM INITIATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRLHIGH PLAINS SOON. SVR STORMS ARE EXPECTED AND WW WILL LIKELY BENEEDED.DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWTSTM INITIATION IS ONGOING ACROSS NE CO AND FAR SW WY AS AN OUTFLOWBOUNDARY MOVES SWWD THROUGH THE REGION. AKO /IN NE CO/ RECENTLYOBSERVED A WIND SHIFT FROM NLY TO ELY COINCIDENT WITH A DEWPOINTINCREASE FROM 44 TO 58 DEG F AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY MOVED THROUGH.ENHANCED CONVERGENCE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS AN ASSOCIATEDINCREASE IN MOISTURE IN CONJUNCTION WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFTASSOCIATED AN APPROACHING DISTURBANCE WILL SUPPORT AT LEASTSCATTERED TSTM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. THE AIRMASS OVER THEREGION IS CHARACTERIZED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND AMPLELOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S/ WITH MODERATE TO STRONGINSTABILITY AS A RESULT. THIS INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH THE ENHANCEDMID-LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN ORGANIZED SVR STORMS.PRIMARY THREAT IS SVR HAIL/WIND BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE AN ENHANCEDTORNADO RISK N OF THE SFC LOW IN WRN KS. IN THIS AREA...ELY WINDWILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT MOISTURE WWD INTO AN AREA WITH WIND PROFILEFAVORABLE FOR A TORNADOES. ALL OR PART OF THIS AREA WILL LIKELY NEEDA WW BEFORE 19Z. FARTHER E...THE INITIATION STILL APPEARS TO BE ATLEAST A FEW HOURS AWAY AS THE CAP REMAINS STRONG...MOSIER/MEAD.. 05/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 SPC WRF *IF* this were to verify, it would obviously be a dangerous situation in the southern regions of todays risk. ScreenHunter_39 May. 27 14.41.png SPC WRF does seem to suggest an area of interest well South of SLN, where I get the impression people are converging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jcwxguy Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Progged sig tor at 1z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Ha that's like back where we were this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOKNWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK0240 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013VALID 272000Z - 281200Z...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL KSAND SRN NEB......THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE MDT RISK FROMTHE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX TO SERN MT...EWD INTO THE OH VALLEY......CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...MINOR WWD ADJUSTMENTS HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CATEGORICAL MDT RISKACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS...PRIMARILY NORTH OF I-70 ALONG THE NEBBORDER. ELY BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW HAS STRENGTHENED ACROSS NRN KS INWAKE OF EARLY MORNING MCS AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW APPEARS TO BEENHANCING UPSLOPE COMPONENT JUST NORTH OF SFC LOW OVER GOVE/LANECOUNTIES. CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY DEVELOPEDOVER ERN CO AND THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD INTO NWRN KS/SWRN NEBWHERE AFOREMENTIONED FAVORABLE LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS FORCED SFC DEWPOINTS ABOVE 60F TO THE KS/CO BORDER. ADDITIONALLY...AN AGITATED CUFIELD IS NOW PRESENT WEST OF HLC AND TSTMS COULD EVOLVE FROM THISTHICKENING MASS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE VERY WARMTEMPERATURES AT 700MB INITIATION SWD ALONG THE DRYLINE MAY NOTCOMMENCE FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY 205 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHEYENNE HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... CENTRAL BANNER COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA... NORTHEASTERN KIMBALL COUNTY IN THE PANHANDLE OF NEBRASKA... * UNTIL 230 PM MDT * AT 201 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 11 MILES NORTH OF KIMBALL...AND MOVING EAST AT 25 MPH. HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. SOURCE...WEATHER SPOTTERS CONFIRMED TORNADO. IMPACT...MOBILE HOMES WILL BE HEAVILY DAMAGED OR DESTROYED. SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DEADLY TO PEOPLE AND ANIMALS. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE IS LIKELY. * THE TORNADO WILL AFFECT MAINLY RURAL AREAS OF CENTRAL BANNER AND NORTHEASTERN KIMBALL COUNTIES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 NWUS55 KCYS 272015LSRCYSPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY215 PM MDT MON MAY 27 2013..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0215 PM TORNADO 11 N KIMBALL 41.39N 103.66W05/27/2013 BANNER NE TRAINED SPOTTERSPOTTER REPORTS TWO TORNADOES ON THE GROUND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0820 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0323 PM CDT MON MAY 27 2013 AREAS AFFECTED...PART OF NWRN KS INTO NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 272023Z - 272130Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS AND SOUTH CENTRAL NEB IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH THE STRONGER STORMS BECOMING CAPABLE OF POSING A TORNADO THREAT...AND PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A TORNADO WATCH WILL BE COORDINATED DURING THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO WITH WFO/S ACROSS NWRN-NORTH CENTRAL KS/SOUTH CENTRAL NEB. DISCUSSION...20Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER WEST CENTRAL KS /JUST S OF KHLC/...WITH ELY WINDS ON THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THIS LOW HAVING INCREASED OVER NORTH CENTRAL KS. THIS LATTER FACTOR IS FAVORING A STRENGTHENING OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF THE WRN EXTENT OF A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE EARLIER LOWER MO VALLEY MCS...WITH THE STRONGEST CONVERGENCE LOCATED NEAR AND N OF I-70 BETWEEN COLBY AND HAYS KS. AN ENHANCED CU FIELD WAS LOCATED IN THIS AREA AND EXTENDED INTO SOUTH CENTRAL NEB...WHERE INITIAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE MOST PROBABLE. IN ADDITION TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...AN INCREASE IN FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD INTO KS THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE EXIT REGION OF A 40-50 KT SWLY MIDLEVEL JET EMERGES NEWD INTO THE WRN/CENTRAL KS. EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR IS ALREADY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...ONCE STORMS DEVELOP...WHILE THE INCREASED ELY SURFACE WINDS HAVE SUPPORTED AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR /EFFECTIVE SRH ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA IS 200-300 M2 PER S2/ FAVORING A TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..PETERS/MEAD.. 05/27/2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Emergency management reports 48 mobile homes "damaged" near Riverton, IL. There was a TOR warning earlier there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted May 27, 2013 Share Posted May 27, 2013 Wow..not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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