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Plains tornado threat Mon 5/27-Fri 5/31


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OUN very concerned about cell in Caddo county. Already has a mesocyclone and trajectory is problematic for OKC.

 

It will be a close call for Norman, but if it matures and deviates to the right relatively soon, it may well cross I-35 closer to Purcell/Wayne.

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Current obs at 1pm. I would expect the tornado threat to ramp up significantly if/when these cells reach the I-35 corridor, particularly from around OKC-PVJ, given the localized backing. We'll see if winds closer to US-81 are able to back more over the next hour, hastening the threat.

 

post-972-0-92560200-1369937133_thumb.gif

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Keep an eye open for Northern,OK For later.

AN OUTFLOWBOUNDARY FROM OVERNIGHT STORMS IN SOUTHERN KANSAS IS CURRENTLY
STRETCHED ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN OKLAHOMA. LONG TRACK TORNADO
POTENTIAL WILL BE ENHANCED WITH ANY STORMS THAT CAN ANCHOR ON THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.

http://forecast.weather.gov/showsigwx.php?warnzone=ARZ029&warncounty=ARC131&firewxzone=ARZ029&local_place1=&product1=Hazardous+Weather+Outlook

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
117 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

OKZ019-024>030-301845-
LOGAN OK-OKLAHOMA OK-LINCOLN OK-MCCLAIN OK-GRADY OK-CLEVELAND OK-
POTTAWATOMIE OK-CANADIAN OK-
117 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN...OKLAHOMA...
WESTERN LINCOLN...NORTHWESTERN MCCLAIN...NORTHEASTERN GRADY...
NORTHERN CLEVELAND...NORTHWESTERN POTTAWATOMIE AND EASTERN CANADIAN
COUNTIES UNTIL 145 PM CDT...

...THIS IS A SPECIAL FORECAST FOR THE TORNADO RECOVERY AREAS...

AT 110 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR FORT COBB IN
SOUTHERN CADDO COUNTY.  ON ITS CURRENT PATH AND MOVEMENT...THIS
STORM WILL APPROACH THE NEWCASTLE AREA AROUND 3 PM  AND SOUTHERN
OKLAHOMA CITY AND MOORE BETWEEN 315 AND 330 PM. 

ANOTHER STORM WAS LOCATED BETWEEN PIEDMONT AND KINGFISHER.  THIS
STORM SHOULD MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN LOGAN COUNTY.

STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE VERY LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS ALONG WITH A RISK OF TORNADOES

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Another rapidly intensifying cell north of Piedmont.

We are on that cell.. Parltly because it formed where we are lunch. May drop south but chasing up here would be easier.
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At this point, 5/20 certainly didn't seem more impressive than today.  I like the progged low-level wind and instability profiles more today than I did for 5/19 and 5/20.

 

My perception may have be distorted somewhat on 5/20. In my mind, I was expecting the low-level winds then to improve throughout the day, so perhaps I modified the OUN sounding, mentally (the only negative thing was the weaker low-level winds). Even though today's LLJ is exiting, it may not matter anyway since early initiation has taken place and a nice overlap exists (MLJ/LLJ) over the threat region.

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BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
135 PM CDT THU MAY 30 2013

 

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

 

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN KINGFISHER COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  CENTRAL LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...

 

* UNTIL 215 PM CDT
   
* AT 132 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS DANGEROUS
  STORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF CASHION...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT
  30 MPH.

 

IN ADDITION TO A TORNADO...LARGE DAMAGING HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE
IS EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM.

 

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GUTHRIE...CRESCENT...CASHION...CIMARRON CITY...CEDAR VALLEY...
  NAVINA AND SEWARD.

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I have an uncomfortable feeling that the deepening surface low to the NW will arrive just in time--within the next hour--to back the winds near OKC significantly.  There is a secondary shortwave PVA impulse developing over CO that should cause the surface low to deepen another mb or two within the hour, thereby imparting both enhanced upward motion and localized bulk shear / 0-3-km SRH. I think the Anadarko supercell could be big, big trouble for the OKC metro.

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Figures. Piedmont/Guthrie storm is a near slam-dunk to produce relatively soon, but is moving into awful terrain. Southern storm will be over open country for another two hours. The window for making a decision, given traffic considerations in the metro, is already about to close. I'd feel good if I were in Ian and Co.'s position.

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Figures. Piedmont/Guthrie storm is a near slam-dunk to produce relatively soon, but is moving into awful terrain. Southern storm will be over open country for another two hours. The window for making a decision, given traffic considerations in the metro, is already about to close. I'd feel good if I were in Ian and Co.'s position.

The Anadarko cell looks certain to come very close to Moore in another hour and a half...and given the increasing SRH down there, the Southern cell looks like a good chase until it gets closer to OKC. The cell will face an increasingly favorable environment just ahead. Ch. 9 chopper shows "significant" rotation and a possible wall cloud developing just SSW of Cashion, OK. TOR just issued there based upon sirens, but no actual TOR yet as circulation continues to develop.

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